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Three Reasons Why Kentucky Will Win the Title and Why They Won't

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The Wildcats have all the tools to win no. 9 this year but let’s analyze Kentucky’s chances and what gives them the best chance and what does or could potentially hurt them come tournament time.

Why They Will

1.Rebounding

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Kentucky currently sits 30th in the country averaging 39.04 rebounds per game. However, they outrebounded the “best” rebounding team in the country, North Carolina. In their December matchup, the Wildcats outrebounded the Tar Heels by 11 rebounds. Where Kentucky is most impressive is their offensive rebounding. Kentucky rebounds 36.6% of their misses, which is the 7th highest rate in the country. Interestingly, 2 of 4 teams Kentucky has lost to rebound their own misses at a higher rate, Duke and LSU.

2. Offensive and Defensive Efficiency

Only one time in history has a team not ranked top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency won the NCAA championship, that outlier being the 2014 UConn team. Kentucky is currently 14th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. Making them one of six teams currently in the top-20 in each category, those other teams being Duke, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Lousiville.

3. Versatility

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This Kentucky team has come a long way since the opening night embarrassment to Duke and giving up 82 points to VMI. This team has found different ways to win all year as they’ve grown into the national title contender they are. Before Kentucky was a top-10 defense and beating teams up in the paint, Kentucky’s defense was far from elite and the two best players were Reid Travis and Keldon Johnson. They’ve won games using the free-throw line (Auburn), forcing turnovers & transition (North Carolina & Vandy), stingy defense (Florida), physicality & toughness (Tennessee). This team has pieces that can do different things and one player is capable of picking up the slack when someone else is having an off game.

Why They Won’t

1.Can PJ Washington keep his play up?

After destroying Vanderbilt Calipari said, “I’ve been waiting a year and a half for him to play this way”. PJ Washington has been playing at a first-team All American level the past 8 games averaging 21.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, and 1.3 bpg on 55.4% FG and 50% 3P. This is the version of PJ Washington the Cats needs in order to be successful but is this level of play sustainable for PJ?

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2. Outside shooting

Kentucky is 316th out of the 351 NCAA Division-1 schools in 3P made per game. It’s not even the fact that they don’t make them, we are 340th in 3P attempted. Calipari has yet to embrace the three-point shot as it has become the biggest shot in the entire sport of basketball, and can be seen when we face a good zone. That could come back to get the Wildcats in March.

3. Turnovers

Kentucky is 137th in turnovers per game at 12.8, which is one of the highest amongst the national title contenders. Kentucky can’t give up as many free possessions and points and expect to win a title, especially with their lack of shooting. However, in their last 5 games, they are improving in that area.

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Kentucky is capable of beating anyone, and is as talented and is playing as well as any team in the country. However, they aren’t without faults and its March Madness for a reason.

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Men's Basketball

Adou Thiero Enters Transfer Portal, Keeps Options Open

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© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky’s first domino of the off-season has fallen. Adou Thiero has entered the transfer portal, according to On3’s Jamie Shaw. He has entered his name in the NBA Draft as well, while not ruling out a return to Kentucky, according to KSR’s Jack Pilgrim.

A big hit to Kentucky’s upcoming roster, as Thiero’s upside and growth will be missed. In the 2023-24 season, Thiero averaged 7.2 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game while missing 7 games due to injury. The 6-8 wing brought physicalness that Kentucky desperately needed this season, and something Calipari has been stressing for this upcoming season. Calipari harped on him numerous times this season, saying “He’s gotten so much better.”

Thiero has jumped in mock drafts all season, and his potential is sky high. ESPN’s Jonathan Givony even had Thiero going 27th in the 2025 NBA Draft. Now, he will get to add to his potential elsewhere.

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Now, Kentucky will look to find a good replacement for him as more things start happening throughout the off-season. Calipari is continuing to meet with players to discuss their future plans throughout the week.

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Men's Basketball

John Calipari Highlights Changes for Next Season

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John Calipari draws up a play at Kentucky's season opener. Said he made a "tweak".
UK Athletics

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” – Albert Einstein.

Many Kentucky fans have referred to this quote over the last few days, expressing a desire for a change from John Calipari. However, Calipari will be back on the sidelines for the Kentucky Wildcats next season for his 16th season, confirmed by Mitch Barnhart on Tuesday.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be any changes.

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On Monday, John Calipari went on his season-ending radio show, giving his first comments to fans since Kentucky’s upset loss to Oakland last Thursday. It was easy to see why is a good recruiter, as he said all the right things.

For the better part of an hour, Calipari spoke with humility, answered some direction questions from Tom Leach, and accepted criticism. The main takeaway was that he understands that he has not met the Kentucky standard or his own standard, and changes need to take place.

“We’ve got to evaluate everything,” Calipari said. Here are some changes that have been outlined.

Getting Back to “Grinding”

Kentucky basketball offseason has often consisted of international trips to the Bahamas, or Canada last season, but not this year. Calipari emphasized a desire to get back to what his early Kentucky teams were characterized by, defense and physicality.

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“What about in the summers, instead of the Bahmas or Toronto, we’re grinding,” Calipari proposed. “We’ve got to get back to where we’ve been defensively and with physicality. Your defense steadies you.”

Those trips are good for team bonding and chemistry, but it’s clear that time can be used better for getting into the weight room and instilling defensive principles. Calipari did note that he does not want to take a step back on offense.

Getting Older

Calipari is the coach who made the “one-and-done” approach popular, relying heavily on elite freshmen. However, with college basketball getting older, he has expressed a willingness to get older.

“We’re relying on freshmen too much. In those kinds of games, you better have some vets,” Calipari said of his takeaway from Oakland. “For us, we need to get older.”

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It should be noted that Calipari relied on transfers in 2022 and 2023, albeit most not being the elite transfers, but more supporting pieces (i.e. CJ Fredrick) and developmental players (i.e. Jacob Toppin). That said, two transfers have been the leading scorer for Kentucky in three straight seasons, Oscar Tshiebwe and Antonio Reeves.

Calipari is looking more for a middle ground between young talent and transfers. “I like the combination of both. We just got to get the right transfers.”

Program Changes

When you are winning, you have more freedom, but when you have just one NCAA Tournament win in the last four seasons, you’re not going to have that luxury. This was not publicly said by Calipari, but more oversight will come as a result of his meeting with Barnhart on Tuesday afternoon.

Expect 1-2 staff changes and likely a support staff change. One of the staff changes should be filled with a defensive mind, and the support staff should be (suggestion) filled with someone in a general manager-type role. There will also be some operation changes such as having a more definitive practice schedule, rather than getting a text the day before/of, and some changes with the NIL model.

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Men's Basketball

Mitch Barnhart Speaks On John Calipari Coming Back As Kentucky Basketball Coach, “He Will Return”

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Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart confirms that John Calipari will return as Kentucky Wildcats basketball coach.
Mike Weaver/Special to the Courier Journal

After days of speculation, Kentucky Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart confirms that John Calipari will be back, coaching his 16th season for the Kentucky Wildcats. The two had a conversation at Barnhart’s farm on Tuesday afternoon.

“As we normally do at the end of every season, Coach Calipari and I have had conversations about the direction of our men’s basketball program and I can confirm that he will return for his 16th season as our head coach,” Barnhart said in a statement.

While there was some fan outcry for a head coaching change, there was no real indication that a change would be made.

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Barnhart was put in a difficult situation. Calipari has not led the Wildcats to the second round of the NCAA Tournament since 2019, but he is one of just a few active Hall of Fame coaches. With no clear option as a replacement, Barnhart decided to retain Calipari for another season.

Kentucky Insider has been told that Tuesday’s meeting between the two was “good”, despite some disagreement. As a result of the meeting, there will be some expected changes in the program, specifically some staff changes, and changes in day-to-day operations.

On Monday, Calipari recognized his shortcomings and closed out his show with a commitment to the Kentucky fans:

“That standard of national titles has been here from coach Rupp on. The only thing I am saying to all our fans. I’m going to work… That is a commitment that I give to the fans. I love it. This is what I want. This is it. Let’s come together and let’s do something.”

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Calipari is set to meet with players individually on Wednesday to discuss their stay/go decisions. The process of rebuilding next year’s roster (and staff) begins now.

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