After four weeks of subpar competition, the Kentucky Wildcats will finally be put to the test against a top-25 opponent, the Florida Gators.
While the Wildcats are 4-0, including two 30-point wins, fans nor the team have been particularly happy with the play on the field, which can be best characterized as sloppy and inconsistent, specifically on the offensive side.
Given the talent disparity to start the season, Kentucky was able to win despite the mistakes and inconsistency. However, that must change in order to be successful as they enter the toughest part of their schedule, starting this Saturday.
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Things haven’t been great for Florida either, but after a poor opening performance against Utah, where they had just 13 rushing yards, the Gators have won three straight, including an impressive 29-16 win over a top-25 Tennessee team.
That said, let’s look at the matchup and Kentucky’s keys to victory.
Stop Florida on Third Down
While the Kentucky offense has not been great, the Kentucky defense has been a bright spot, as expected from the talent level and Brad White’s reputation. In total team defense, the Wildcats are currently ranked 20th in the nation and 3rd in the SEC behind Texas A&M and Georgia.
That said, one of the weak spots of the defense has been the third-down conversion percentage, allowing teams to convert on third down 45 percent of the time, the second-worst rate in the SEC ahead of Vanderbilt. Contrary, Florida’s third-down offensive conversion percentage is just as bad, only converting a third of the time (33%), the second worst in the SEC ahead of Mississippi State.
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In a battle of weaknesses, the Wildcats must get the upper hand and force Florida off the field on third downs.
Stick to Your Assignment
Florida does not have a high-powered offense. Running a balanced run-first offense, the Gators rank in the middle of the SEC in passing yards and rushing yards. However, they are efficient in the passing game, using “dink-and-dunks” and completing 77.2 percent of their passes, ranked 4th in the country.
While Kentucky has been the best in the SEC at stopping the run, they are in the lower half at stopping the pass and have allowed a 61.2 completion percentage to their opponents. The key for the Wildcat defense will not necessarily be to get splash defensive plays but to stick to their assignments and keep the ball in front of the ball.
Trevin Wallace has been playing at an All-SEC level, while Kentucky’s cornerbacks, Maxwell Hairston and Andru Phillips, are among the highest-rated in the SEC, according to PFF.
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Play with Discipline
For a long time, people would say, “That’s Kentucky football,” after the Wildcats would have some sort of bad luck or make a mistake that cost them the game. While bad luck can happen, it’s something that is difficult to control, but you can control penalties.
Last season and the start of this season have been some of the most undisciplined football since the start of the Mark Stoops era. Through four games, the Wildcats have been called for 32 penalties for 272 yards, among the worst in the nation and the second-worst in the SEC, ahead of only Arkansas.
To correct that, this week, the staff even brought in NCAA officials to call practice and recreate game action. Liam Coen said the officials were instructed to call it “tight,” especially in the trenches.
In what is expected to be a close game, the Wildcats can’t take themselves out of it with self-inflicted mistakes.
Time/Date: 12:00 pm ET on Saturday, September 30th, 2023 Location: Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. TV Channel: ESPN Announcers: Joe Tessitore, Jesse Palmer, Katie George Online Stream:WatchESPN, ESPN+, SEC Network+, or the ESPN app. Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network. Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966 Replay:WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Predictions: TeamRankings has Kentucky coming away with a 24-21 win, while DRatings.com is going with a 26-23 victory, Kentucky! I’m predicting the Wildcats to beat the Gators 24-17 after a late-game defensive stop!
Before he transferred to Kentucky, Jamon Dumas-Johnson was an All-American at Georgia, with waves to at least test the NFL draft after winning a National Championship. However, with the decision to play his last collegiate season as a Wildcat, Dumas-Johnson was a cornerstone piece for the Kentucky defense, finishing the season with 7.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks during his 11 starts for the team.
His athleticism spoke volumes at Kentucky football’s NFL pro day, where current NFL draft boards now list the linebacker as one of the best athletes at the position and has earned himself a “top 10” feel ahead of the draft. Before pro day, publications such as Bleacher Report had him listed as No. 13 at his position.
Dumas-Johnson proved himself with the highest vertical jump (37.5) and the longest broad jump (10.60) out of the Wildcats who competed in said events, and ran an impressive best 4.50 40-yard dash. At 245 pounds, he also managed to press 16 reps of 225, which could technically be “better” compared to NFL standards, but is impressive nonetheless in hindsight.
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At 23 years old, this linebacker exploits explosiveness, agility and can hawk down any playmaker on the field. Out the 31 NFL teams that attended the event (a Cleveland Browns representative did not attend), one will be getting a prize steal of the draft with Dumas-Johnson.
Alex Raynor had an illustrious season for Kentucky last year, being named to First-Team All-SEC, as a finalist for the Lou Groza award and as SEC Special Teams Player of the Year.
As the record holder for the longest field goal in program history, and arguably one of, if not the, most consistent kickers to ever be a Wildcat, Raynor now looks to the NFL Draft in the next chapter of his book.
Recently, at Kentucky football’s NFL Pro Day on Tuesday, March 11, Raynor kicked off the event with his workout.
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Although he would miss a routine kick for him inside of the 45, he would continue to move back, nailing a 55-yard kick and nearly making a 60-yard kick.
The best moments of his workout came when Raynor would line up behind the UK logo inside of Nutter Field House and would nail a 65-yard field goal.
After charting a 4-8 record in the 2023-24 season, including a 1-7, second-to-last finish in the SEC, Kentucky Football looks lost for the first time in a long time.
It can be argued that the program never really broke through to the “higher echelon” of college football in the first place, but even then, they’ve been consistently better than they were historically known to be. Until now.
With that aforementioned .333 record, the Cats weren’t able to earn a bowl game. That marks the first time since the 2015 season that Kentucky Football won’t appear in postseason competition, and, excluding the 2020 season (for COVID-related reasons,) it’s also the only time the Wildcats have finished under .500 since then.
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What about the last time the team had less than five wins? 2013, in Stoops’ first season. The deeper you dig, the worse it appears.
Losing to Louisville in blowout fashion at the end of last month felt like the straw that broke the Cats’ back. It was clear that whatever would happen next wouldn’t be simply transitional, and thus far, the early offseason has evidenced that.
The Big Move
It began with an exodus. Star wideout Barion Brown elected to transfer to LSU for his senior season. His receiver running mate, Dane Key, left for Nebraska. In addition to the team’s two primary deep threats, Chip Trayanum, the promising back and former Buckeye who spent much of this year battling injuries, took his talents to Toledo.
In total, the Cats have lost nearly two dozen players to the transfer portal, and that’s not even counting the guys headed to the NFL draft (like Deone Walker and Maxwell Hairston,) as well as the graduates.
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To put it bluntly, next year’s team will share little more with the players from this past season than the blue and white on their jerseys. It’s a brutal overhaul, though one Coach Stoops and his staff are trying to get the jump on, to their credit.
Fresh Faces
Among a growing list of incoming transfers, a few names in particular stand out. Chief among them is Zach Calzada, a quarterback whose upcoming season at Kentucky will mark his fifth year playing football in his third different jersey.
The journeyman spent this past season at Incarnate Word, where he threw for 35 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He completed 344 passes on the year, almost doubling that of his previous two.
Before his two-year stint at IW, Calzada spent the beginnings of his college career at Texas A&M where, among a mixture of steadily improving statistics, he led the Aggies to an impressive home win over the still Saban-led Alabama Crimson Tide. Whether or not his recent success in the Southland Conference will translate back to the SEC is yet to be seen, but, at least on paper, this pickup makes sense for Kentucky following a year of unsparing QB play across the board.
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Along with Calzada, the Cats have hauled in J.J. Hester, a 6 ‘4 senior receiver from Oklahoma, Dante Dowdell, a power back coming off a 12-touchdown season for Nebraska, and Sam Greene, a defensive end transferring in from USC, among a handful of others. We’ll have a team.
Though, even considering the roster turnover, that wasn’t the question. That still remains, “what will that team do?”
Potential vs. Progress
Kentucky is 18-25 in their last three seasons of football; a steady decline that has been made worse by the fact that the program’s outlier 10-3 finish in the 2021 season has since been disqualified by the NCAA due to a rule violation. All in all, the last half-decade has been, at best, barely getting by.
How long will this trend continue? The only thing we know for sure is that nobody is sure. Answering that question requires the analysis and knowing of many moving parts, not all of which are at widespread disposal.
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But this much is clear: the longtime variable nature of Kentucky Football came to a head this year, and the product we’re about to see is going to have to be radically different from the one we’ve just seen in order to right this ship.
For better or worse, the 2024-25 season will likely go down as the most important yet in the Stoops era at UK.