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Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: TV/Streaming Info, Keys to the Game, and Predictions

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Kentucky Wildcats vs Mississippi State in a football matchup at Kroger Field.
UK Athletics

Amidst a three-game losing streak, the Kentucky Wildcats are in need of a win. Not just to end that streak, but to retain fan interest with Kentucky basketball kicking off their regular season next week. The Wildcats will try to do so this Saturday at a venue they have not won at in 15 seasons, in Starkville against Mississippi State, going 0-6 in that span.

Given the negative streaks working against them, this year is a good opportunity for Kentucky to break both as Mississippi State is one of the worst teams in the SEC. The Bulldogs are just 1-4 in the SEC, with their lone win coming against an Arkansas team that has yet to win in conference play.

That said, road wins in the SEC are no easy task. Let’s look and see what Kentucky needs to do to overcome the cowbells and leave Starkville with the win.

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Improved Run Defense

Unlike Mississippi State teams of the past, coached by the late Mike Leach, the Bulldogs do not run an air raid offense. Instead, they are much more balanced and even favor the run for the most part. In fact, the Bulldogs have had more rushing attempts than passing attempts in six of their eight games.

Already favoring the run, the Bulldogs are not certain about which quarterback will play this weekend between Will Rogers (shoulder injury), Mike Wright, and Chris Parson.

That said, Kentucky’s primary defensive focus will be to stop the run. For much of the season, that has been a strength for the Wildcats, keeping five of their eight opponents under 100 rushing yards. However, the other three opponents have all come in the last three games, ultimately resulting in three straight losses. The worst came last week against Tennessee, who ran for 254 yards.

Entering the season, Kentucky’s front seven looked to be one of the best in program history. While that expectation hasn’t been met, the talent is there and they need to prove it this weekend.

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Can the Passing Game Sustain the Momentum?

While Kentucky suffered a loss to Tennessee this past weekend, the passing offense had its best performance of the season. Passing for a total of 372 yards against the Vols, the Wildcats recorded their highest passing output of the season, nearly doubling their next closest against an SEC opponent (Vanderbilt, 205 passing yards).

The question now is, can they carry the momentum?

Looking at Mississippi State, they are 11th in the SEC in passing defense, giving up nearly 240 passing yards per game. Even worse, they allow their opponents to complete 73 percent of their passes, the worst in the SEC. That said, the opportunity for Kentucky to succeed in the passing game is there and will not only be key for this game, but also for the rest of the season.

Stop Them on Third Down

In terms of yards per game, Mississippi State has the third-worst offense in the SEC. That said, Kentucky is just one spot ahead of them. Add that both teams are in the bottom ten in the country in plays per game and toward the bottom in seconds per play, it is very likely it will not just be slow scoring but one be one of the slowest games in the country this weekend.

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In such a slow and low-scoring contest, every possession is valuable and important. Each team will look to limit opportunities of the other, and that starts on third downs. Mississippi State converts on third downs at the second-worst rate of all Power Five Schools at 30.9 percent, ahead of only Iowa (26.4%). However, that is a weakness of the Kentucky defense, which has allowed opponents to convert 43.6 percent of the time. In a battle of weaknesses, Kentucky needs to find the edge.

Kentucky Wildcats (5-3, 2-3 SEC) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-4, 1-4 SEC)

Time/Date: 7:30 pm ET on Saturday, November 4th, 2023
Location: Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, MS
TV Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Tom Hart, Cole Cubelic, Alyssa Lang
Online Stream: WatchESPNESPN+, SEC Network+, or the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | MSU
Stats To Know: UK | MSU

Covers.com Weather Forecast:

Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook has Kentucky listed as a 4-point favorite. However, ESPN’s matchup predictor has Kentucky as a slight underdog, giving the Wildcats a 46% chance to win.

PredictionsTeamRankings has Kentucky coming away with a 24-21 win, with DRatings.com also picking the Cats in a 27-23 victory. Given the expected slow pace of the game, along with the struggles of the Mississippi State defense and the improvement of Kentucky’s pass offense, I pick the Wildcats to win this game 24-17.

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The State of Kentucky Football

Following their worst season in nearly a decade, Kentucky Football faces a steep rebuild and rising expectations.

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Kentucky football coach Mark Stoops has been linked to the Texas A&M job.
Chet White | UK Athletics

After charting a 4-8 record in the 2023-24 season, including a 1-7, second-to-last finish in the SEC, Kentucky Football looks lost for the first time in a long time.

It can be argued that the program never really broke through to the “higher echelon” of college football in the first place, but even then, they’ve been consistently better than they were historically known to be. Until now.

With that aforementioned .333 record, the Cats weren’t able to earn a bowl game. That marks the first time since the 2015 season that Kentucky Football won’t appear in postseason competition, and, excluding the 2020 season (for COVID-related reasons,) it’s also the only time the Wildcats have finished under .500 since then.

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What about the last time the team had less than five wins? 2013, in Stoops’ first season. The deeper you dig, the worse it appears.

Losing to Louisville in blowout fashion at the end of last month felt like the straw that broke the Cats’ back. It was clear that whatever would happen next wouldn’t be simply transitional, and thus far, the early offseason has evidenced that.

The Big Move

It began with an exodus. Star wideout Barion Brown elected to transfer to LSU for his senior season. His receiver running mate, Dane Key, left for Nebraska. In addition to the team’s two primary deep threats, Chip Trayanum, the promising back and former Buckeye who spent much of this year battling injuries, took his talents to Toledo.

In total, the Cats have lost nearly two dozen players to the transfer portal, and that’s not even counting the guys headed to the NFL draft (like Deone Walker and Maxwell Hairston,) as well as the graduates.

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To put it bluntly, next year’s team will share little more with the players from this past season than the blue and white on their jerseys. It’s a brutal overhaul, though one Coach Stoops and his staff are trying to get the jump on, to their credit.

Fresh Faces

Among a growing list of incoming transfers, a few names in particular stand out. Chief among them is Zach Calzada, a quarterback whose upcoming season at Kentucky will mark his fifth year playing football in his third different jersey.

The journeyman spent this past season at Incarnate Word, where he threw for 35 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He completed 344 passes on the year, almost doubling that of his previous two. 

Before his two-year stint at IW, Calzada spent the beginnings of his college career at Texas A&M where, among a mixture of steadily improving statistics, he led the Aggies to an impressive home win over the still Saban-led Alabama Crimson Tide. Whether or not his recent success in the Southland Conference will translate back to the SEC is yet to be seen, but, at least on paper, this pickup makes sense for Kentucky following a year of unsparing QB play across the board.

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Along with Calzada, the Cats have hauled in J.J. Hester, a 6 ‘4 senior receiver from Oklahoma, Dante Dowdell, a power back coming off a 12-touchdown season for Nebraska, and Sam Greene, a defensive end transferring in from USC, among a handful of others. We’ll have a team. 

Though, even considering the roster turnover, that wasn’t the question. That still remains, “what will that team do?”

Potential vs. Progress

Kentucky is 18-25 in their last three seasons of football; a steady decline that has been made worse by the fact that the program’s outlier 10-3 finish in the 2021 season has since been disqualified by the NCAA due to a rule violation. All in all, the last half-decade has been, at best, barely getting by.

How long will this trend continue? The only thing we know for sure is that nobody is sure. Answering that question requires the analysis and knowing of many moving parts, not all of which are at widespread disposal.

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But this much is clear: the longtime variable nature of Kentucky Football came to a head this year, and the product we’re about to see is going to have to be radically different from the one we’ve just seen in order to right this ship.

For better or worse, the 2024-25 season will likely go down as the most important yet in the Stoops era at UK.

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Kentucky Athletic Collectives Rank 11th of 16 Teams in SEC, Bring in over $11 Million

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Kentucky ranks 11th of 16 SEC teams in collective fundraising.
Jordan Prather | Imagn

For better or for worse of college sports, NIL is here to stay and it certainly gives an advantage to schools with more money. Just looking at the SEC alone, collectives raised more than $200 million in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Unfortunately, Kentucky is ranked in the lower half of that.

According to documents from the House v. NCAA proposed settlement, Kentucky raised $11,254,204 from athletics collectives for the 2023-24 fiscal year. That ranks 11th of the 15 public universities in the SEC and is just more than half of the top collective, Texas who raised over $22 million.

Full Rankings

Rank
School NameCollective Funding
1Texas22,272,474
2LSU20,137,141
3Georgia18,326,566
4Texas A&M17,228,714
5Alabama15,995,406
6Florida15,802,237
7Oklahoma14,817,595
8Tennessee11,602,164
9Auburn11,588,953
10Arkansas11,544,039
11Kentucky11,254,204
12S. Carolina9,554,700
13Ole Miss8,872,378
14Missouri7,146,859
15Mississippi St.6,467,166
NRVanderbiltNot Available (Private School)

While collective funding is low, Kentucky has been a top 20 athletic program in total revenue, partly thanks to being a school that profits from its basketball program. Looking ahead to 2025, Kentucky is expected to stay in the top 20 nationally in athletic revenue, fifth in the SEC by bringing in an estimated 131,139,792. Ahead of programs like Georgia, LSU, Florida, and Tennessee.

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With revenue sharing coming in the near future, even more money is going to be involved in roster and program building. Schools in the Big Ten and SEC have an even bigger advantage due to their new TV deals, giving them up to an extra $70 million or more.

A new era of college sports is here. It’s time to prepare and embrace it.

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Kentucky Wide Receiver Calls for “A Lot” More Leadership and Accountability from Staff

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Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Stoops walks onto the field before the game against the Louisville Cardinals.
Jordan Prather | Imagn

A poor offensive line. Inconsistent quarterback play. A lot of things led to Kentucky football’s abysmal 2024 season. However, they had the talent to finish better than 4-8, only defeating one power opponent this season. So what could have helped?

Kentucky wide receiver Ja’Mori Maclin was asked that question after the Wildcats’ loss to Louisville on Saturday. To his credit, he answered honestly and professionally.

“A lot more leadership,” Maclin said. “Holding guys accountable for things. A lot more discipline for all the guys… All around, players and coaches. We’re still a team, I don’t want to point at any one person or specific group. All around we need better leadership.”

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Maclin is a junior and could return for another season. Despite talking about Kentucky taking the next step, he has not made his decision and will be returning home to talk to his family to do so. If Maclin does return, it sounds like Kentucky will have a leader in the receiving room.

Despite being a 1,000-yard receiver at North Texas, Maclin was not targeted often. However, on his 13 receptions, he caught four for touchdowns, the most of any receiver on the team.

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