Back to a .500 record after a win against Ohio, the Kentucky Wildcats will go on the road for the first time this season to take on the sixth-ranked Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford.

Lane Kiffin in his fifth season as head coach of the Rebels may have the most talented roster he’s had with Ole Miss. With a solidified Heisman candidate in Jaxson Dart leading a “video game offense” and multiple elite transfers on both sides of the ball, they are one of the favorites to make the College Football Playoff. Beating their first four opponents by an average of 49.5 points per game, they’re looking the part.

That said, their strength of schedule is among the worst in college football this season. Playing an FCS team and three FBS teams, their toughest opponent thus far is Wake Forest, who ranks 86th in ESPN’s power index rankings. Therefore Kentucky will not just be their SEC opener, but a different level of opponent.

Under Mark Stoops, Kentucky is 0-3 against Ole Miss, but they have played them closer than any other opponent with an average margin of defeat of just 2.3 points. The most recent came in 2022 after a Kentucky touchdown in the final minute was called back for illegal motion.

Prior to that game, Kentucky was 19-7. Since that game, Kentucky is just 12-14. A win over a top-10-ranked Ole Miss team could certainly push things back in the right direction.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Elite Offense vs Elite Defense

“It feels like we’re going against the Super Bowl Rams, the Greatest Show on Turf,” Kentucky defensive coordinator Brad White said on Wednesday, holding the Ole Miss offense in high regard and for good reason as they lead or are atop the nation in most statistical offensive categories:

• Points Per Game: 55.0, 1st
• Yards Per Game: 670.8, 1st
• Passing Yards Per Game: 422.8, 1st
• Yards Per Play: 8.85, 1st
• Offensive Success Rate: 55.5%, 1st
• Plays of 10+ Yards: 100, 1st
• Plays per Game: 75.8, 7th
• Rushing Yards Per Game: 248.0, 12th

Again, Ole Miss hasn’t played a defense as tough as Kentucky’s, which ranks sixth in total defense. Lane Kiffin knows that, likening the Wildcats’ defensive unit to an “NFL defense”.

It will be a battle of two strengths. For Kentucky to have a chance to win, they are going to have to play their best on defense. Fortunately, they have already shown they are capable of that, limiting a Georgia offense to just one touchdown.

Battle In the Trenches

One of the biggest issues for Ole Miss in recent seasons has been their weakness in the trenches. This offseason, they made a concerted effort to fix that.

For the defensive line, things look vastly improved. However, question marks still remain with the offensive line, in large part due to injuries. That same could be said of Kentucky this season, however, they have the advantage of being tested in the trenches by Georgia.

If Ole Miss’ offensive line meets the play of Kentucky’s defensive line, they could win this game comfortably. If the Kentucky D-Line is able to overwhelm the Rebels and slow down their offense, it will give the Wildcat offense a shot at an upset bid.

Injuries

On Wednesday’s injury report, Ole Miss listed twenty-six players. Yes, 2-6. In comparison, Kentucky had just seven players listed.

That said, fourteen of those players are listed as “probable”. By SEC standards, that means they have a greater than 75 percent chance of playing. That number will likely get smaller as the report is updated leading up to Saturday’s contest.

The unit that has been hurt the most has been the Ole Miss offensive line, which has just seen one of three projected starters play a snap this season. While they have a lot of weapons on offense, if Kentucky were to have an advantage on the Ole Miss offense, it would be there.

Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (4-0)

• Game Time: 12:00 PM ET on September 28th, 2024
  Location: Vaught Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi.
  TV Channel: SEC Network will have today’s coverage.
  Announcers: Dave Neal, Aaron Murray, and Ashley ShahAhmadi will call the action.
  Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
  Radio: Tom Leach and Jeff Piecoro have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Network.
  Satellite Radio: XM Channel 203, Sirius Channel 98, Internet Channel 966
  Replay: ESPN+ and SEC Network (check local listings).
  Rosters: UK | MISS
  Stats To Know: UK | MISS
  Advanced Stats
  Weather.com Forecast
• Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 17.5-point underdog with an over/under of 53.5. ESPN gives the Wildcats less than a 10 percent chance of victory.
• Predictions: TeamRankings has Kentucky losing by three scores 35-18. OddsShark projects them to lose in a close contest 31-29. DRatings.com picks the Cats to lose 33-21. I’m going with the Cats to cover the spread, but ultimately lose 31-17.

Also published on A Sea of Blue.