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Is Kentucky On Upset Watch Against MAC Favorite Toledo?

After a 4-8 season and heavy roster losses, the Wildcats enter 2025 under pressure and potentially on upset watch.

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UK Athletics

Typically, when an SEC team schedules a Group of Five opponent to open the season, it is considered a “gimme” game, a chance to settle in and start 1-0.

Kentucky football in 2025, however, does not have the luxury of relying solely on physicality, talent and skill to secure an easy win against a MAC school.

Expectations for the Wildcats are low entering the new season. Coming off a dismal 4-8 campaign that included just one conference victory, Kentucky lost key players to the transfer portal in the offseason, further depleting a roster already thinned by the NFL draft.

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The departures of standouts such as Barion Brown, Dane Key, Keeshawn Silver, Chip Trayanum, Kendrick Gilbert and others on both sides of the ball pose a major challenge. So what does that mean for Saturday? It means Kentucky will face the MAC favorite with a roster full of unknowns and lingering questions at nearly every position group on offense and defense.

With so much uncertainty, many around the college football world have the Wildcats on upset watch, with analyst Josh Pate among those predicting a Rockets win in Lexington.

The majority of oddsmakers have already tightened the spread, with Kentucky opening as a 10.5-point favorite with the Rockets looking like an attractive money-maker for many upset-minded college football fans. For Stoops, now entering his 13th season in Lexington, the opener is not just about avoiding an upset but about resetting momentum for a fan base weary of last year’s collapse as a loss to Toledo could set a troubling tone for a Kentucky team that faces some of the nation’s toughest opponents in its SEC slate.

All of it adds up to an opener that feels far more precarious than usual for an SEC program. Instead of a tune-up game, Kentucky finds itself in a proving ground, with its season narrative potentially shaped by what happens Saturday against the Rockets, something many in Big Blue Nation never thought they would ever have to say. We live in interesting times.

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“Former” Kentucky Wide Receiver Hardley Gilmore IV Flips Commitment

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Jordan Prather | IMAGN Images

After leaving the Wildcats in the offseason via the transfer portal, wide receiver Hardley Gilmore IV has officially returned to Kentucky and practiced with the team on Tuesday, March 3, according to multiple reports.

Gilmore originally committed to the rival Louisville Cardinals, but in true Vince Marrow fashion, he whiffed on the Wildcat transfer, leading the wideout to flip his commitment to the Baylor Bears on Jan. 12.

After officially signing with Baylor, it seemed like that was that. Several of Gilmore’s teammates from the 2024-25 season had transferred out, likely because of the multiple coaching changes. Now, with a true sign of what college sports has come to, the “former” Wildcat is back in Lexington.

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Notably, this isn’t the first time that Gilmore changed his mind on where he would continue his football career, transferring to Nebraska in the 2024 offseason and returning back to the Wildcats in the spring of 2025.

He caught 28 balls, raking in 313 yards and a singular touchdown last season and will have two years of eligibility left to his name.

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Kentucky Boasts Top 15 Portal Class After Busy First Week

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Elliott Hess | UK Athletics

It has officially been an entire week since the college football transfer portal opened on Jan. 2, with teams across the nation scrambling for visits and quick commitments.

Despite his duties as Oregon’s offensive coordinator, which ended in abrupt fashion on Jan. 9 by way of the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers, Will Stein and company have been holding or folding their cards in contention with the nation’s top programs.

According to 247Sports, Kentucky currently holds the No. 14 overall portal class ahead of the 2026 season, consisting of 13 total commitments. Of those, two players are four-star recruits and eleven of them are three-star recruits.

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Showing the attention to detail and the connections built so quickly, the Wildcats reached out to Arkansas linebacker Tavion Wallace on Jan. 3, the younger brother of former Kentucky linebacker Trevin Wallace. At one time, the younger Wallace brother was a consensus four-star recruit and was ranked as a top 25 linebacker in the country.

As former Wildcats, led by quarterback Cutter Boley, began to spread their wings and transfer elsewhere, Kentucky remained consistent in its recruiting trail.

During this same time period, the Wildcats hosted the consensus No. 1 overall quarterback in this year’s portal class, Sam Leavitt. Rumors of a hefty NIL package and a modern-era player swap circulated with Boley’s commitment to Arizona State, with reports of Leavitt and Stein watching film until midnight the day he visited Lexington.

Jan. 4 and 5 would remain as marquee days in the Wildcats’ efforts, landing five different players. At the start of the batch was Gardner Webb EDGE Antonio O’Berry, who chose Kentucky over schools such as Ohio State, Georgia and more. The 6-foot-6 threat tallied 10.5 TFLs and seven sacks in the 2025 season.

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Commitments started to flood every social media notification inbox, with the Wildcats adding three new guys just several hours apart: Baylor’s interior offensive lineman Coleton Price, LSU’s defensive tackle Ahmad Breaux and Western Carolina cornerback Hasaan Sykes.

Price spent four seasons at Baylor, playing three as a starter and earning a 68.0 overall offensive grade in 2025. Breaux had 19 total tackles last season with half of a sack credited to his name as well. Sykes impresses the most out of this batch, deflecting five passes, recording three interceptions, two sacks and forcing a fumble in last year’s outings.

On the night of the fifth, Stein went and got his quarterback, ending all speculation surrounding Leavitt’s decision. Kenny Minchey, Notre Dame’s backup play caller, flipped his commitment just one day after transferring to Nebraska and decided to become a Wildcat.

Minchey, with an athletic and melodic skill set, spent last year on the Fighting Irish’s bench behind CJ Carr.

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Minchey was a four-star recruit out of Hendersonville, Tennessee and has every tool needed to be an elite guy in the SEC.

The fun didn’t stop there, as in the next afternoon, Kentucky would land Oklahoma running back Jovantae Barnes, brining in fire power at a much needed position. Barnes totaled 1,281 yards and 12 touchdowns during his time with the Sooners.

Just an hour before, Kentucky would receive two commitments from SEC foes, acquiring cornerback Aaron Gates from Florida and interior offensive lineman Max Anderson from Tennessee.

With anticipation and optimism shifted to Kentucky’s basketball game against Missouri on Jan. 7, the Wildcats would again bring in more top talent behind the scenes, earning commitments from Purdue’s defensive tackle and Frederick Douglas graduate Jamarrion Harkless, Alabama offensive tackle Olaus Alinen, UAB wide receiver Xavier Daisy and last but certainly not least, Florida’s three-year starting safety Jordan Castell.

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To round off the week, Pitt defensive back Jesse Anderson decided he wanted a little bit more blue in his life for his two remaining years of his college journey, committing to Kentucky on Jan. 9.

Stein and his team aren’t done just yet – mind you this is just week one. With Oregon’s 56-22 loss to Indiana in the Peach Bowl, the new coach in the bluegrass state will say his final goodbyes and turn his complete and total attention to the Wildcats.

Kentucky football’s newest chapter is off to a hot start and it’s all gas, no brakes moving forward.

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Kentucky Earns First Transfer Portal Addition Ahead of the 2026 Season

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Arkansas Democrat Gazette

On Saturday, Jan. 3, the Kentucky Wildcats and new head coach Will Stein put down the first piece of the puzzle, landing Arkansas linebacker Tavion Wallace from the transfer portal, the younger brother of former Kentucky linebacker Trevin Wallace.

The former Razorback stands at 6-foot-1 and weights 239 pounds, who at one time was a consensus four-star recruit and was ranked as a top 25 linebacker in the country – all taking place while his brother was dominating the SEC and eventually turned into a third round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Out of high school, Wallace received an abundance of offers, including notable schools such as Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Florida State and Michigan. Among the finalists in his recruitment, Kentucky was a soft mention, but other SEC foes led the way, with Florida State over in the ACC serving as the lead favorite.

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Ultimately, Wallace shocked many, and went with defensive coordinator Travis Williams and the Razorbacks.

During his first season of collegiate ball, Wallace didn’t take the field much down in Fayetteville, AR, only appearing in nine games and notching two tackles in the stat sheets. Ultimately, he entered the transfer portal after head coach Sam Pittman was relived of his duties.

The linebacker position is a need for Kentucky, and early on, the proper steps are being made. This polished prospect will look to follow in his brother’s footsteps and wow Big Blue Nation this coming fall.

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