Coming off arguably their best offensive performance of the season, the Kentucky Wildcats will go on the road this weekend as they go up against a top-10 Alabama team that is playing as well as anyone in the country.
Unlike most of Nate Oats’s teams, which heavily rely on their offense, this season’s Alabama team is very balanced. The Crimson Tide are one of just a handful of teams that are ranked top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
They have proven themselves against good competition as well, ranked 8th in the NET rankings with a 6-2 record in quadrant 1 and 2 games. With that said, they are not unbeatable. Alabama has lost two games this season and has struggled against teams like Memphis, South Dakota St, and South Alabama.
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Saturday will be a difficult task but should provide a measuring stick to see where Kentucky is. Let’s take a look at Kentucky’s keys to the game.
Play Disciplined Defense
To combat one of the best offenses in the country, Kentucky must come prepared to play and play with a disciplined defense. Against Alabama, this will start on the perimeter.
As usual with Nate Oats’s Alabama teams, they are ranked top 10 in both three-pointers attempted and made. Whereas, defending the three has been a struggle at times for Kentucky.
In the past, Calipari has played a defense against Alabama that encourage people to drive. This should be expected again, but Kentucky must fight through and go over with any screening action.
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Another aspect that Kentucky will have to focus on is defending without fouling. The Crimson Tide at one of the highest rates in the country. This also provides a large part of their offense, providing nearly a quarter of their points per game.
It’s not just about limiting free chances for points, but with John Calipari limiting the rotation to seven players, the Wildcats can’t afford to get in foul trouble.
Limit Brandon Miller
Averaging 19.1 points per game, Brandon Miller leads the SEC in scoring and has scored in double-figures in all but one game (Houston). With that said, it will be a tall task for anyone to defend Miller, yet someone has to.
Given Miller’s size (6-foot-9) and versatility, expect Jacob Toppin to have the matchup for most of the night. While Miller is an elite shooter, his finishing ability leaves much to be desired.
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As mentioned earlier, Calipari has played a defense against Alabama that encourage people to drive. This philosophy should work well against Miller if Toppin can execute it effectively.
Capitalize off of Turnovers
Alabama is a great offensive team, but they do have a glaring weakness, taking care of the ball. Averaging 16.4 turnovers per game, the Crimson tide are ranked toward the bottom of the country in ball security.
Kentucky’s length and improved energy should force some Alabama turnovers, and Kentucky needs to take advantage of this. With that said, Calipari has talked about playing more “deliberate”, and they must when extra possessions could be what decides the game.
Late Game Execution
For thirty-five minutes against LSU, Kentucky played their basketball of the season. Yet, they nearly gave away the win due to poor execution toward the end of the game.
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Just look at this possession at the end of the game where Sahvir Wheeler looks to the sidelines for what to run, before being luckily bailed out by Jacob Toppin.
In all six of Alabama’s games against ranked opponents, the game has been decided by 11 points or less, with an average point differential of 7.5 points. If Kentucky is improving and growing into the team that was ranked top five in the preseason, Saturday will be another close game.
Time/Date: 1:00 pm ET on Saturday, January 7th, 2023. Location: Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. TV Channel: ESPN Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes Online Stream:WatchESPN, ESPN+, SEC Network+ or ESPN app Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network. Replay: SEC Network (check local listings). Rosters:UK | BAMA Team Sheets: UK | BAMA Stats To Know: UK | BAMA
Odds: The odds for this game has yet to be released, but it is fair to say that Kentucky is the underdog. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Wildcats just a 29.6% chance of winning, while Bart Torvik gives Kentucky an even lower chance lower advantage at 21%, while KenPom has it at 30%.
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Predictions: Bart Torvik picks the Wildcats to lose 79-70. KenPom went with Bama to win 78-72.
Kentucky never has to worry about a big game being sell out, nor most regular season games. However, that is not the case for the school an hour down the road.
With a new and energetic head coach bringing an exciting style of play, one would think that Louisville Cardinal fans would be ready to support their program and attend a Top 25 game in their NBA style arena. Yet, you would be wrong.
With a matchup with 12th ranked Tennessee on Saturday, the Cardinals have thousands of tickets available for KFC Yum Center. Earlier this week head coach Pat Kelsey went around Louisville’s campus to encourage students to purchase tickets and attend the game.
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UPS and Louisville boosters have purchased tickets in bulk this week to give away. Now just 24 hours away from tip and in order to have a respectable atmosphere, they have resorted to giving away FREE tickets, as long as you are a Planet Fitness member which costs $10/month.
Sound the “LUNK” alarm for Louisville’s ticket sales.
Love it or hate it, Kentucky and Arkansas will be compared to one another all season and that is because of the move of John Calipari this offseason. After fifteen seasons at Kentucky, it’s natural for people to want to follow how the now-former Kentucky coach fares in Fayetteville.
Following the Razorbacks season-opening win against Lipscomb, Calipari was asked a question about Baylor and Scott Drew, who they play this weekend.Rathern than asking about the matchup, a reporter asked if he had talked to Drew about the Kentucky job when he had a top candidate for the opening this offseason.
“He [Drew] never called me on it. We never talked,” Calipari responded. “I see what Mark Pope is doing, good for him. Good for him. And it’s a program that deserves that.”
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Drew heavily considered taking the job, even sending his family for a visit of Lexington before ultimately declining. Calipari spoke as to why he believed Drew remained at Baylor.
“Scott has done unbelievable work at Baylor and probably got comfortable there and, ‘Why would I go into that hornet’s nest?’”
That “hornet’s nest” is Kentucky. To be fair to him, he is correct, as the Kentucky job is not for everyone. However, for the reasons it can be seen as a “hornet’s nest”, i.e. the pressure and expectations, it is also the reasons it is the greatest job in college basketball. Mark Pope, who is at the helm now, understands that as well as anyone in the country.
What a season opener it was for the Kentucky Wildcats on Monday night.
With a 41-point margin of victory, which coincidentally matched Mark Pope’s playing number during his time in Lexington, the Wildcats got their largest margin of victory since 2011.
Kentucky’s next opponent is the Bucknell Bison, who comes to Rupp Arena on Saturday and was ranked 277th in the NET. For context, that is currently the second-lowest ranking of any of Kentucky’s opponents this season.
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Led by second-year head coach John Griffin III, the Bison have suffered five straight losing seasons, but things are improving. Last season, they finished second in the Patriot League and were picked to finish fourth this season.
In terms of connections, former Wildcat transfer Nate Sestina played four seasons for the Bison, and former graduate assistant Zach Thomas also played there. That said, this will be the first matchup between the two programs.
The Bison are coming off an 85-73 road win over Delaware to tip off the season.
Here’s what to watch for in Kentucky vs. Bucknell.
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Rebounding
Mark Pope has not been happy with his team’s effort on the boards through two exhibition games and the season opener. With better competition on the horizon, this has to improve.
“We were just barely okay,” Pope said of his team’s rebounding after the Wildcats’ season opener against Wright State. “If we want to accomplish what everybody wants us to accomplish this year, we are going to have to get better on the glass.”
Often, there are players who are eager to leak out in transition, which allows opponents to secure offensive boards. Wright State had 11 of them. Bucknell is not the biggest team, and Kentucky needs to be more dominant on the boards than we’ve seen vs. Wright State or in the exhibition season to feel good about what the Cats can do vs. bigger and more athletic teams.
More 3s?
Before the season, assistant coach Cody Fueger said the goal for this Kentucky team was to attempt 35 3s per game. In Game 1, they shot just 24.
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That said, the Wildcats shot 45.8% from deep and were not forcing 3-pointers just to shoot them.
The Bison are a smaller team than Wright State, so I would expect to see Kentucky continue to put pressure inside. However, the Wildcats could use this game as an opportunity to install stuff for the Duke game next week, designing for more 3-point shots.
Take Advantage of Turnovers
In their season opener, Bucknell turned the ball over sixteen times, among the most in the country after one game. On the other hand, Kentucky stole the ball eleven times, also among the highest in the country.
The Wildcats showed excellent ball pressure for most of the game against Wright State, highlighted by Lamont Butler and Otega Oweh, who recorded three steals apiece. They should be able to have the same if not more success against Bucknell, leading to some easy-scoring opportunities.
Time: 4:00 PM ET on November 9th, 2024 Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky TV Channel: This game will not be on TV and is streaming only, Online Stream: SEC Network+, ESPN+ and the ESPN app. Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network. Replay:WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings). Rosters:UK | BUCK Stats to Know:UK | BUCK KenPom: UK | BUCK Team Sheet: UK | BUCK
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game. Most of the projections give Kentucky at least a 96% chance at victory, including Bart Torvik (97%), KenPom (96%), and ESPN (97.8%). EvanMiya gives Kentucky a 93.7% chance to win.
Predictions: Bart Torvik and Haslametrics have Kentucky winning 87-64 and 88-64, respectively. EvanMiya (84-64) and KenPom (86-66) both predict a 20-point win for the Wildcats.
Be sure to send us your score predictions in the comments section!