Coming off arguably their best offensive performance of the season, the Kentucky Wildcats will go on the road this weekend as they go up against a top-10 Alabama team that is playing as well as anyone in the country.
Unlike most of Nate Oats’s teams, which heavily rely on their offense, this season’s Alabama team is very balanced. The Crimson Tide are one of just a handful of teams that are ranked top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
They have proven themselves against good competition as well, ranked 8th in the NET rankings with a 6-2 record in quadrant 1 and 2 games. With that said, they are not unbeatable. Alabama has lost two games this season and has struggled against teams like Memphis, South Dakota St, and South Alabama.
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Saturday will be a difficult task but should provide a measuring stick to see where Kentucky is. Let’s take a look at Kentucky’s keys to the game.
Play Disciplined Defense
To combat one of the best offenses in the country, Kentucky must come prepared to play and play with a disciplined defense. Against Alabama, this will start on the perimeter.
As usual with Nate Oats’s Alabama teams, they are ranked top 10 in both three-pointers attempted and made. Whereas, defending the three has been a struggle at times for Kentucky.
In the past, Calipari has played a defense against Alabama that encourage people to drive. This should be expected again, but Kentucky must fight through and go over with any screening action.
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Another aspect that Kentucky will have to focus on is defending without fouling. The Crimson Tide at one of the highest rates in the country. This also provides a large part of their offense, providing nearly a quarter of their points per game.
It’s not just about limiting free chances for points, but with John Calipari limiting the rotation to seven players, the Wildcats can’t afford to get in foul trouble.
Limit Brandon Miller
Averaging 19.1 points per game, Brandon Miller leads the SEC in scoring and has scored in double-figures in all but one game (Houston). With that said, it will be a tall task for anyone to defend Miller, yet someone has to.
Given Miller’s size (6-foot-9) and versatility, expect Jacob Toppin to have the matchup for most of the night. While Miller is an elite shooter, his finishing ability leaves much to be desired.
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As mentioned earlier, Calipari has played a defense against Alabama that encourage people to drive. This philosophy should work well against Miller if Toppin can execute it effectively.
Capitalize off of Turnovers
Alabama is a great offensive team, but they do have a glaring weakness, taking care of the ball. Averaging 16.4 turnovers per game, the Crimson tide are ranked toward the bottom of the country in ball security.
Kentucky’s length and improved energy should force some Alabama turnovers, and Kentucky needs to take advantage of this. With that said, Calipari has talked about playing more “deliberate”, and they must when extra possessions could be what decides the game.
Late Game Execution
For thirty-five minutes against LSU, Kentucky played their basketball of the season. Yet, they nearly gave away the win due to poor execution toward the end of the game.
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Just look at this possession at the end of the game where Sahvir Wheeler looks to the sidelines for what to run, before being luckily bailed out by Jacob Toppin.
In all six of Alabama’s games against ranked opponents, the game has been decided by 11 points or less, with an average point differential of 7.5 points. If Kentucky is improving and growing into the team that was ranked top five in the preseason, Saturday will be another close game.
Time/Date: 1:00 pm ET on Saturday, January 7th, 2023. Location: Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. TV Channel: ESPN Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes Online Stream:WatchESPN, ESPN+, SEC Network+ or ESPN app Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network. Replay: SEC Network (check local listings). Rosters:UK | BAMA Team Sheets: UK | BAMA Stats To Know: UK | BAMA
Odds: The odds for this game has yet to be released, but it is fair to say that Kentucky is the underdog. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Wildcats just a 29.6% chance of winning, while Bart Torvik gives Kentucky an even lower chance lower advantage at 21%, while KenPom has it at 30%.
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Predictions: Bart Torvik picks the Wildcats to lose 79-70. KenPom went with Bama to win 78-72.
The expectations at Kentucky are the highest of any school in the country, and there is good reason why. The winningest college program ever. Eight national titles, under five different coaches. Seventeen Final Four appearances. You get it, a lot of success.
Fans want the players to have those same expectations. Despite not having the elite talent or preseason hype of great Kentucky teams past, this year’s team still has their eyes set on doing something “people will remember forever”, winning a national championship.
Asked on social media, if hanging banner #9 was all the players thought about “every second”, Ansley Almonor had a response.
It takes a lot to win a national championship, including some luck, but this team is certainly going to be loved for their desire to live out their dream of playing at Kentucky and their unselfishness. Those two things can take them a long way this season .
John Calipari and Kentucky Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart had their differences over fifteen years, but success can hide a lot of things. Not that they hated each other, but they each had vastly different personalities. As that success weaned towards the end of Calipari’s tenure, those issues started to be noticed publically.
If you need evidence of that, despite their efforts to dispute it, there is the infamous press conference where Barnhart talked about “entitled” coaches, shortly after Calipari publicly called for a new practice facility. Then, there were multiple times when Calipari expressed that the administration was not on the same page and that he was facing “headwinds”.
That said, Calipari is now at Arkansas, but those differences and some disdain remain. During an interview on the Kentucky Football pregame show, Barnhart seemingly took a shot at Calipari when asked about Mark Pope’s recruiting philosophy and prioritizing fit.
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“I tell people all the time, ‘Anybody can recruit, not everybody can evaluate,’” Barnhart said. “You can recruit. You can be phenomenal at bringing people to your program. But if it does not fit you, it’s really not helpful.”
Of course, Calipari is one of the best, if not the best, recruiters in college basketball history. At times, he prioritized talent and athleticism over fit.
Back in April, opposing fanbases like Duke, told Kentucky fans to “cope with Pope” following the hire of Mark Pope and the corresponding initial shock. On Tuesday, those same fanbases had to watch as Mark Pope outcoached Jon Scheyer and Duke in the final minutes of the Champion’s Classic to get his first marque win in just his third game at Kentucky.
Of course, shortly after the game, Duke fans began to rationalize the loss by highlighting their team’s youth. While true, it sounded like an echo chamber of what Kentucky fans said for years under John Calipari. One notable example was former Blue Devil Jay Williams.
At halftime, while Duke was leading 46-37, Williams called this year’s Duke team the most talented since the 2001 team that he was a part of at halftime. To his credit, he complimented Kentucky on the comeback victory, specifically on their offense and maturity, but then 36 hours later he posted a message to Kentucky fans on social media.
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“Let me put you on to something,” Williams started. “Whether you like it or not, networks are going to sell Cooper Flagg. He’s going to be the number one pick in the draft. You’re going to talk about whether he won the or whether he lost the game, regardless of the outcome.”
“You’re not going to like it. There should be more kudos to Mark Pope and Kentucky,” Williams continued. “Regardless of whether you won the game or not, they’re still going to sell Cooper Flagg because he is selling the sport. Sorry.”
William’s statement is true. That said, it comes off as ‘sour grapes’ about losing. Cooper Flagg is a great talent and will likely be the first pick in the NBA Draft, but most Kentucky fans would say they would much rather have the win than the marketing.
Futhermore, Kentucky and its ‘brand’ has raised the level of multiple players and coaches, and will continue to do so. A deeper impact than Cooper Flagg will have on Duke in just one season.