Coming off arguably their best offensive performance of the season, the Kentucky Wildcats will go on the road this weekend as they go up against a top-10 Alabama team that is playing as well as anyone in the country.
Unlike most of Nate Oats’s teams, which heavily rely on their offense, this season’s Alabama team is very balanced. The Crimson Tide are one of just a handful of teams that are ranked top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency.
They have proven themselves against good competition as well, ranked 8th in the NET rankings with a 6-2 record in quadrant 1 and 2 games. With that said, they are not unbeatable. Alabama has lost two games this season and has struggled against teams like Memphis, South Dakota St, and South Alabama.
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Saturday will be a difficult task but should provide a measuring stick to see where Kentucky is. Let’s take a look at Kentucky’s keys to the game.
Play Disciplined Defense
To combat one of the best offenses in the country, Kentucky must come prepared to play and play with a disciplined defense. Against Alabama, this will start on the perimeter.
As usual with Nate Oats’s Alabama teams, they are ranked top 10 in both three-pointers attempted and made. Whereas, defending the three has been a struggle at times for Kentucky.
https://youtu.be/qZ0Gz6S01VA
In the past, Calipari has played a defense against Alabama that encourage people to drive. This should be expected again, but Kentucky must fight through and go over with any screening action.
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Another aspect that Kentucky will have to focus on is defending without fouling. The Crimson Tide at one of the highest rates in the country. This also provides a large part of their offense, providing nearly a quarter of their points per game.
It’s not just about limiting free chances for points, but with John Calipari limiting the rotation to seven players, the Wildcats can’t afford to get in foul trouble.
Limit Brandon Miller
Averaging 19.1 points per game, Brandon Miller leads the SEC in scoring and has scored in double-figures in all but one game (Houston). With that said, it will be a tall task for anyone to defend Miller, yet someone has to.
Given Miller’s size (6-foot-9) and versatility, expect Jacob Toppin to have the matchup for most of the night. While Miller is an elite shooter, his finishing ability leaves much to be desired.
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As mentioned earlier, Calipari has played a defense against Alabama that encourage people to drive. This philosophy should work well against Miller if Toppin can execute it effectively.
Capitalize off of Turnovers
Alabama is a great offensive team, but they do have a glaring weakness, taking care of the ball. Averaging 16.4 turnovers per game, the Crimson tide are ranked toward the bottom of the country in ball security.
Kentucky’s length and improved energy should force some Alabama turnovers, and Kentucky needs to take advantage of this. With that said, Calipari has talked about playing more “deliberate”, and they must when extra possessions could be what decides the game.
Late Game Execution
For thirty-five minutes against LSU, Kentucky played their basketball of the season. Yet, they nearly gave away the win due to poor execution toward the end of the game.
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Just look at this possession at the end of the game where Sahvir Wheeler looks to the sidelines for what to run, before being luckily bailed out by Jacob Toppin.
A SEC win should always be celebrated. With that said, late game execution needs to be better.
Here is an example, late in the game, where Wheeler shrugs and looks to the sideline with less than 10 sec on the shot clock.
In all six of Alabama’s games against ranked opponents, the game has been decided by 11 points or less, with an average point differential of 7.5 points. If Kentucky is improving and growing into the team that was ranked top five in the preseason, Saturday will be another close game.
Time/Date: 1:00 pm ET on Saturday, January 7th, 2023. Location: Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. TV Channel: ESPN Announcers: Karl Ravech, Jimmy Dykes Online Stream:WatchESPN, ESPN+, SEC Network+ or ESPN app Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network. Replay: SEC Network (check local listings). Rosters:UK | BAMA Team Sheets: UK | BAMA Stats To Know: UK | BAMA
Odds: The odds for this game has yet to be released, but it is fair to say that Kentucky is the underdog. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Wildcats just a 29.6% chance of winning, while Bart Torvik gives Kentucky an even lower chance lower advantage at 21%, while KenPom has it at 30%.
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Predictions: Bart Torvik picks the Wildcats to lose 79-70. KenPom went with Bama to win 78-72.
Kentucky fans received a bit of good news today as Mark Pope previewed the Wildcats’ rematch with Alabama.
Asked about the status of Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson, Pope had positive news to share rather than the not-so-good news he is growing accustomed to providing over recent weeks.
“Lamont is going to get a little bit of live action today,’ Pope said. “Jax (Jaxson Robinson) is gonna be in some skill stuff today”
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This is a very promising update for Kentucky as they are doing everything they can to get healthy for a run in March. However, it does sound like we are closer to a return of Lamont Butler than we are seeing Jaxson Robinson return.
Although the update did seem promising, it shouldn’t be expected for either player to suit up against Alabama. That said, an injury report will be released around 7 PM eastern tonight.
At this point in time, the most crucial thing is getting Lamont Butler, and Jaxson Robinson back healthy for a postseason run in March. Although Kentucky has had bright spots without Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson, it is clear that they have missed both of these guys. Pope seems more hopeful with each day that we will see these guys back in uniform in the pretty near future.
The Cats will be back in action tomorrow at 6 PM on ESPN against an Alabama team who will be hungry after a road loss to Missouri.
Among a wave of feel-good storylines in the wake of Kentucky’s ranked home win over Tennessee last week, completing the season sweep, Koby Brea’s playmaking towards the end of the second half was the nail in the Volunteers’ coffin.
On back-to-back possessions, Brea led the charge with a depleted Wildcats offense, following the re-aggravation of Lamont Butler’s shoulder injury and the continued absence of Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa.
First, “Fuego,” as he’s been lovingly dubbed by the Big Blue Nation, executed a clutch step-back triple to extend Kentucky’s lead to six, 68-62. Then, after a defensive stop, Brea slashed into the lane and threw a no-look-lob to Otega Oweh that essentially sealed the deal.
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Kentucky led 70-62 with just over a minute to go, and would ultimately get out with a double-digit win, 75-64.
Bucket List Buckets
Asked about the deciding stretch after the game, Brea emphasized staying calm, and how the moment is the stuff of childhood dreams.
“I play hard throughout the game on both ends,” he said. “When it’s time for me to shoot, I have to just relax a little bit. That’s the one moment in the game where I’m just going to take my time and breathe a little bit.”
Brea finished the game with 11 points and shot a scorching 50% metric (3/6) from the three-point line. Whatever he’s doing, he’s doing it right.
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“It felt good,” he said regarding his third, and most crucial, triple. “To hit shots like that in such a big moment, in such a big game, it’s stuff that you dream of as a little kid.”
“It made me feel really good, and it just goes to show all the work that I’ve put in, and how confident I am in that moment, and how confident my team is in that moment with me as well… they knew I was going to go to work, and that meant a lot to me as well.”
With both Robinson and Butler likely to remain out against Texas on Saturday, Kentucky will likely rely on Brea to start, and produce, once more. No matter how tough the SEC has proven to be, this Kentucky team has responded every time; the “next man up” mentality in Lexington is like no other.
The “get-back” game, as they call it. After losing to Vanderbilt in Nashville last month, Kentucky evened the season slate between the ‘Cats and Commodores at home in an 82-61 win, including a chasmic 41-21 advantage in the second half.
Picture Perfect
While the Wildcats will take away much positivity from the win, the most glaring highlight is Amari Williams’ perfection from both the field and the free throw line; he tallied 17 points on 6/6 and 5/5 splits. For perspective, Williams is the first basketball player in college or the NBA to have such a stat line since Hall of Famer Pau Gasol in 2010.
Amari Williams of @KentuckyMBB is the first Division I or NBA player to have a game with:
Williams’ strong performance is only the latest in a long line of memorable games for the senior transfer. In January, he became only the fourth Wildcat in program history to log a triple-double, doing so on the road in the loss to Ole Miss.
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In addition to that flawless performance, Collin Chandler rose to new heights in what was undoubtedly his best performance of the season thus far, too.
Chandler entered the game early as the first substitution off the bench, sinking a three on his first possession and not once looking back. In 15 minutes, Chandler scored seven points, grabbed six boards, and added two assists and steals, to boot.
It Takes A Team
Despite standout individual performances, Kentucky’s pivotal victory took the entire team, battling through their persistent injury issues (which cost them three players tonight) ahead of an ominous, ever-brutal SEC schedule.
“Kentucky was on a high level today,” admitted Commodores’ head coach Mark Byington following the game.
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“I thought Pope put them in a great spot to be successful, and those guys executed… I thought Kentucky was great tonight.”
As far as what Coach Pope himself had to say, he made sure to give his guys flowers.
“I thought Collin gave us a massive boost tonight, energy-wise… the plays he made today, he’s been making in practice, and he is going to help us in a huge way down the stretch. I was really proud of him tonight,” he said.
And Amari? “Amari decided he wasn’t passing the ball tonight,” Pope joked.
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“Amari right now is top 5 all-time in the SEC in terms of PAR (points plus assists plus rebounds)… that’s insane what we’re witnessing him do. I thought he was brilliant tonight.”
“He’s grown so much, and he’s taken on so much, and he’s just like “Give me more.””
With their backs against the wall, Kentucky continues to battle until the bell rings. Now 18-8 (7-6) on the year, the ‘Cats have five more games before the madness begins. Their next test comes in the form of fourth-ranked Alabama in Tuscaloosa this Saturday.
But for the time being, Vanderbilt was a must-win, and win Kentucky did.