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Where Kentucky Basketball Stands in the Preseason Analytics

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The Kentucky Wildcats are set to tip off the season and the analytics belief they are in for a good first season under Mark Pope.
Jordan Prather | Imagn Images

With exhibition games now passed us, it’s a reminder that the season is just days away. With Kentucky winning both exhibitions by 71 points and 31 points, respectively, excitement is really starting to build in the Bluegrass.

The Wildcats were ranked 23rd in the preseason AP and Coaching polls. With an experienced team, the analytics have a lot of data to pull from and some believe that Kentucky is better than that ranking, while others believe they are worse.

H.U.M.A.N Poll (KenPom subscribers): 16th
Haslametrics: 17th
EvanMiya: 22nd
Bart Torvik: 23rd
KenPom: 43rd

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Among doing this for teams, they have data on each team’s players as well.
Kenpom projected Kentucky’s most valuable player to be Wake Forest transfer
Andrew Carr. Andrew Carr was ranked as the #108 most valuable player in the
country. EvanMiya agrees with this, giving him a 4.54 Bayesian performance rating.

These data projections may be a bit skewed. Some of the rankings were very
interesting as seen here.

  • Andrew Carr (No. 108)
  • Brandon Garrison (No. 142)
  • Lamont Butler (No. 145)
  • Kerr Kriisa (No. 155)
  • Amari Williams (No. 158)
  • Otega Oweh (No. 167)
  • Koby Brea (No. 174)
  • Jaxson Robinson (No. 240)
  • Travis Perry (No. 1,041)
  • Trent Noah (No. 1,281)
  • Collin Chandler (No. 1,632)
  • Grant Darbyshire (No. 1,820)
  • Ansley Almonor (No. 1,912)
  • Walker Horn (No. 4,133)

Kentucky is currently listed to have seven players in the country’s top 200
most valuable players. However, the big shocker is the
projected value of BYU Transfer Jaxson Robinson.

Again, these projections are a bit skewed, as we do see Walk-on Grant
Darbyshire as being more valuable than Fairleigh Dickenson Transfer
Ansley Almonor.

Some guys were however listed as more valuable than some may
think. Brandon Garrison Oklahoma State Transfer, and former
McDonald’s All-American comes in at #142.

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Garrison showed out during Kentucky’s Pro Day displaying
a great ability to defend and protect the rim. Garrison also showed a
fantastic motor and incredible athleticism. He is someone who I
foresee playing a huge role in the Cats Frontcourt this season.

Another surprise was Colin Chandler coming in at #1,632. Chandler
was a 4 Star prospect coming in at #33 in the 2022 Class. Chandler
took some time away from the sport to embark on a mission trip
overseas. He is starting to get back into the swing of basketball and is
someone who I think could surprise a lot of folks this season.
Overall, the National Media views Kentucky as a middle-of-the-pack
Top 25 team. It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the
course of the season.

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Players Spotlight: Trent Noah

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Photo by Chet White | UK Athletics

The next player up for a spotlight is a kid from a tough and rugged part of Kentucky, in Harlan County. Trent Noah was born on Dec. 28 in Corbin, Kentucky. His parents are Stacy and Dondi Noah and he also has a sister, Emerysn. A fun fact in his lineage, his grandfather, Charles “Perky” Bryant, who played football at Kentucky from 1961-63.

If you had told Trent Noah seven months ago that he would be in Lexington this coming fall, he probably would have found it flattering but probably inconceivable. At the time, the two-time Kentucky all-state player was already committed to Soth Carolina down in Columbia, South Carolina.

Meanwhile, Kentucky was in no position to take another recruit, with the typical top Calipari class heading in this fall, what could possibly happen to change the course of dozens of players? Well, that butterfly was the Muss bus heading to USC, which set off a chain of events that landed Mark Pope at Kentucky. What was once a foregone conclusion is now a possibility for a Kentucky kid to stay and play for his state school. 

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Kentucky fans have been clamoring for shooting, and that’s exactly what you have with Mark Pope’s first freshmen class at Kentucky with Trent Noah being no exception. Averaging 29.9 points his senior year at Harlan County, he finished fifth all-time in scoring in Kentucky high school history.

Noah’s Sweet Sixteen run last year at the KHSAA will go down as one of the greatest collections of performances in the tournament’s history, going off for 48 points against Campbell County. It wasn’t just the points he scored, it was also how he did it and when he did it. His play brilliance carried Harlan to the state final where he eventually lost to Travis Perry, who we we will speak about later on in this series.

Being tabbed as one of the best shooters in his class, his skills and awareness make Noah the ultimate floor spacer. Adam Finkelstein, from 247 Sports, had this to say about him. “Strong-bodied wing and elite shooter of the basketball. His game starts with the three-point line.”

Noah’s skill set already bold wells for Mark Pope’s offense. If Trent did nothing else he just wanted to hone those skills that he already possesses, he would become a great player for Kentucky. However, if he does what every player does while they’re in college, which is growing, we could be looking at one of the most underrated pick-ups of Mark Pope’s young coaching career.

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Trent is special at getting to his spot and with a 6’5, 220-pound frame as a freshman with time in the weight room, it will be difficult to keep him from his spots. With a shooting range that will make any marksman blush, Noah could thrive in a Mark Pope system for years to come. Before we get there, he must improve on his defense and get used to the pace and the strengths of college basketball. 

 The new regime leading Kentucky basketball has put an emphasis on keeping their high school players in Kentucky. So far the moves that have been made since the new coaching hire, one would say Mark Pope is definitely keeping his word, and Trent Noah is a prime example.

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2026 No. 1 Prospect Brandon McCoy Wrote an Imaginary UK Scholarship on His Wall as a Kid, Wants to Hear From Mark Pope

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Brandon McCoy, the No. 1 recruit in the 2026 class wants to hear from Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats.
IMAGN/USA Today

At his introductory press conference back in April, Mark Pope touched on his roster building. While he will recruit players that will be around 3-4 years, and from the portal, he’ll also continue to recruit five-stars and McDonald’s All-Americans just as John Calipari did.

It’s too late to do that for this coming season, but this past weekend, Pope and the rest of the Kentucky staff were busy on the recruiting trail looking ahead at some of the best high school talent in the 2025 and 2026 classes. One of those players was Brandon McCoy, the consensus No. 1 player in the 2026 class.

A 6-foot-5 guard, with long arms and a fluid frame, McCoy has great size. He also has great skill, highlighted by his crafty handles that help him score and facilitate for others. With his size, skill, and feel for the game, McCoy has one of the highest ceilings in the class and it’s easy to see why one of the best and most sought-after players in the class.

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As his recruitment picks up heading into his junior year, he has already received offers from over a dozen high-major schools including Kansas, Tennessee, and UCLA. That said, McCoy has yet to hear from Mark Pope and the Kentucky staff but it’s something he is looking forward to, he told Kentucky Sports Radio at the Nike EYBL session in Indianapolis this past weekend.

“I haven’t talked to him (Pope) yet, never met him. But I hope to!” McCoy said. “Hope to build a relationship and meet him, definitely look forward to that in the future… I don’t know too much about (Kentucky) since it’s a new staff, but I know, of course, in previous years it was a really good team. I’m looking forward to meeting him and really seeing how he is.”

That will likely change soon as Pope and assistant Jason Hart sat courtside for multiple games and both have West Coast recruiting connections that could help in pursuing the California prospect.

McCoy will make clear that he never had a dream school, but an offer from Kentucky is a goal that he had written on his wall as a kid.

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“I don’t have a dream school at all, just a couple of offers I really want to get, that are written on my wall. They are Kentucky and Duke. I had that offer written on my wall, hoping to get that. Hopefully, I get the re-offer from Mark Pope, as well.”

Until that offer comes, McCoy is going to continue working hard, which is what led him to become the No. 1 player in his class.

“This is something I embrace. It doesn’t happen by accident, it happens because I put in the work,” he said. “I just trust myself and try not to think too much about it. It’s basketball and I just do it, so the more I think about it, the harder it’s going to be for me. I just play the game I love playing.”

Also published on A Sea of Blue.

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National Anaylst Reveals Why John Calipari is Leaving Kentucky

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John Calipari observing his team at Kentucky basketball practice at the Joe Craft Center.
UK Athletics

If you were surprised by the news that John Calipari would be leaving Kentucky after fifteen seasons to take the head coaching job at Arkansas, you weren’t the only one. Even some of the people closest to the program were “shocked” when they learned of it.

Just two weeks removed from his “commitment” to Kentucky fans to right the ship, he is leaving Lexington. Why? According to Fox Sports’ John Fanta:

“Sources close to John Calipari say he had bad feelings about his situation at Kentucky, and that the lack of support had grown to the point where he didn’t feel like he could stay on because he didn’t feel wanted. The assets Arkansas put in place convinced him to make this move.”

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From 2009-2020, Calipari was the most popular man in this state. Winning a title, going to four Final Fours, seven Elite Eights. He could have won the Governor’s race. When you’re not winning, the opposite can be true. Over the disappointments of the last four years, the relationship between Kentucky and Calipari had become somewhat toxic.

Some fans feel optimistic about the change, while others feel uncertainty, and some feel both. Either way, a change was inevitable at some point. For Kentucky and John Calipari, this could save a tougher separation a year from now, while still on relatively good terms. One Kentucky fan even left a message on Calipari’s lawn on Wednesday morning, saying, “Thank you Cal. We love you.”

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