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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Florida : TV/Streaming Info, Keys to the Game, and Predictions

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Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves celebrates after a score.
© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

It’s 2024, and the Kentucky Wildcats will start the new year by opening SEC play against the Florida Gators in their first true road game of the season in Gainesville this Saturday.

The Wildcats enter conference play with a 10-2 record, while Florida enters with a 10-3 record. It’s not just the records that are similar between the two teams, as they play a similar pace and style.

Kentucky is 21st in possessions per game, averaging nearly 77 per contest, while Florida is just one spot behind in 22nd.

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Additionally, both move the ball extremely well, ranking in the top 30 in the country, and both rank 50th (UK) and 57th (UF) in KenPom defensive efficiency. That said, there are some differences as Kentucky attempts three more 3s per game and Florida attempts to create more contact and averages more than seven more free throws per game.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Rebounding

Florida is the best rebounding team in the country, averaging more than 45 per game while outrebounding their opponents by an average of 11 per game. While Kentucky’s efforts have improved since adding 7-footers Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso back to the lineup, they have yet to reach the 40 mark in a single game.

That said, in their most recent game the Wildcats won by 26 against Illinois State, but they were also outrebounded and allowed 24 offensive rebounds, the most of the John Calipari era. In the performance, Bradshaw and Onyenso combined for just three rebounds, the same amount 6-foot-1 Rob Dillingham collected.

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It is worth noting that Adou Thiero missed the game vs. Illinois State due to soreness but is expected to play this week. Thiero is second on the team in rebounding at 5.6 per contest, so having him back will be a big boost in that department.

While Florida’s rebounding efforts are led by big man Tyrese Samuel, each player is disciplined and is looking to grab the rebound. The Wildcats have been working on rebounding drills since the Illinois State game, as John Calipari has made it a big emphasis during Camp Cal.

Hopefully, a difference can be seen in the week since, highlighted by Bradshaw and Onyenso stepping up in a bigger way.

Hit Outside Shots

Kentucky’s defense has not been great this season, but neither have the Gators. Florida’s biggest vulnerability is the 3-point shot, which is fortunate given that is where the Wildcats get more than a third of their points from.

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The Gators allow their opponents to shoot over 34% from deep. This Wildcat team is making its case for the best shooting team of the Calipari era, as they take the second-best 3-point shooting percentage in the country into conference play, 41.6%.

In both of Kentucky’s losses, they have shot less than 32% from 3. Against a team that gives up the three, in a difficult environment, the Wildcats must convert on their opportunities.

Create Turnovers

Florida is 11th in the country in points, but their offensive efficiency is hurt by their inability to take care of the call, turning the ball over more as the second-most rate in the SEC, more than 13.5 times per game.

In comparison, Kentucky has only turned the ball over more than 13 times once, 14 times in a 34-point win against Stonehill.

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Florida guards Walter Clayton Jr and Riley Kugel account for nearly half of the team’s turnovers, so look for the Kentucky backcourt to be aggressive.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Walter Clayton Jr, 6-2, 195 lbs

  • 15.2 PPG (11th in SEC)
  • 3.8 RPG
  • 3.3 APG
  • 45.7% FG

F Tyrese Samuel, 6-10, 239 lbs

  • 14.3 PPG
  • 8.8 RPG (3rd in SEC)
  • 64.6% FG (leads SEC)

G Zyon Pullin, 6-4, 206 lbs

  • 14.1 PPG
  • 5.0 APG (leads SEC)
  • 3.5 RPG
  • 42.9% 3P (T-12th SEC)

Kentucky Wildcats Basketball vs. Florida Gators

  • Date: January 6th, 2024
  • Time: 12:30 pm ET
  • Location: Exactech Arena at Stephen C. O’Connell Center in Gainesville, FL
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Announcers: Dan Shulman and Jay Bilas
  • Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
  • Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
  • Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
  • Rosters: UK | FLA
  • Stats to Know: UK | FLA
  • KenPom: UK | FLA
  • Odds: DraftKings has Kentucky favored by a point as of Friday afternoon. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Cats a 38.3% chance to win. Bart Torvik has it at 41%, while EvanMiya has the game as a tossup, 50.1%-49.9%. KenPom is at 52%. Kentucky is currently 7-3 against the spread, while Florida is 5-4-1.
  • PredictionsBart Torvik and Haslametrics both have Kentucky losing, 88-86 and 89-88, respectively. EvanMiya couldn’t predict a winner with an 83.2-83.2 projection. KenPom is projecting an 86-85 victory, Kentucky!
  • Also published on A Sea of Blue.

Men's Basketball

Can Kentucky Take Down Tennessee for the Third Time This Season? Here is What History Says

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Kentucky Wildcats guard Koby Brea (4) shoots the ball over Tennessee Volunteers.
Jordan Prather | IMAGN

The Kentucky Wildcats will face-off with the Tennessee Volunteers for the third time this season in the Sweet Sixteen, where Kentucky won each of the first two matchups. 

Head Coach Mark Pope and the heart-filled ‘Cats will look to beat Tennessee for the third time in a single season for the first time since 2005.

While previewing the game, Pope had nothing but nice things to say about the rival Volunteers. 

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“If we really parse details, there’s certainly the emotional advantage of winning two that you feel like you know you can,” said Pope. “This is a great Tennessee team. It’s one of the top teams in the country. It’s the best defensive team in the country.” 

Pope, frankly, is right. The No. 2 seed rivals allow only 62.9 points per game, ranking eighth in the nation and hold one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the nation. 

Although these stats haven’t really translated against the Wildcats this season, when it’s March, everything goes out of the door. 

It’s hard to beat a team three times. We know it, and legends have admitted it.

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North Carolina vs. Duke (2024-25) 

North Carolina’s Dean Smith wrote in his memoir that “It was extremely hard to beat a good team three times in a row.” Look at his Tar Heels recently, who faced off against the Duke Blue Devils three times this season. Duke, by a landslide, was the better team all year, hinting at why the Cooper Flagg led team is still dancing.

Duke beat the Tar Heels by double-digit points in both of the regular season matchups, but in the ACC Tournament, no matter what the skill gap was, North Carolina outscored Duke 47-29 in the second half and would only lose by three points. 

When comparing a team who had lost only three games to one who had lost 13, you would think the score would be a landslide again. However, it’s hard to beat a team three times. 

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Kentucky vs Auburn (2018-19) 

The Wildcats have experienced this downfall first hand in their last trip to the Elite Eight, where the No. 5 seed Auburn Tigers defeated them 77-71 in a heartbreaker. 

Kentucky had defeated the Tigers on the road 82-80 on Jan. 19 that year and would go on to blow them out by 27 points inside of Rupp Arena on Feb. 23.

Tyler Herro and Reid Travis would only combine for 16 points in the Elite Eight loss and Kentucky was sent home. 

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Are we making some connections here? 

Michigan State vs. Maryland (2021-22) 

After Michigan State defeated Maryland on March 6 by a score of 77-67, this win would ironically, set up a rematch in the Big Ten Tournament the same week. 

After scraping by on the road earlier in the season by two points, and now beating them once again, Head Coach Tom Izzo would comment on the topic, stating “Now you’ve got to beat a team three times, but it is what it is.”

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The No. 7 seed Spartans would scrape by once again, this time, by four points and would advance in the tournament.


Tonight, at approximately 7:39 p.m. ET, the ball will go in the air inside of Lucas Oil Stadium, and for 40 minutes, nothing else matters except surviving and advancing. 

However, that day old adage will linger in every Kentucky fan’s mind. 

“Can we actually beat Tennessee a third time?” 

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Men's Basketball

Andrew Carr on Kentucky Battling Adversity: “We’ve Gone Through a Lot This Year… It’s Certainly Made Us Stronger”

In the face of multiple injuries and ever-mounting pressure, Andrew Carr insists that the ‘Cats have only been made stronger.

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entucky Wildcats forward Andrew Carr (7) reacts during the second half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Benny Sieu | Imagn

All throughout the 2024-25′ season, there were innumerable intervals at which things seemed to be taking a turn for the worse for Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats. Between consistent and recurring injuries sustained across the team’s core rotation to questions of bench strength, road resilience and minutes attribution, the horizon has been hazy more often than not.

And yet, the Wildcats are slated to play in Indianapolis this weekend in their first Sweet 16 since 2019. How is that?

Well, according to starting forward Andrew Carr, the hardships he and the team have endured only worked to make them stronger. “We’ve gone through a lot this year,” he said, following the Round of 32 win over six-seed Illinois. “It’s certainly made us stronger.”

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Carr, who finished with four points, six rebounds and two assists in the 84-75 victory, was among the team’s question marks earlier in the season, missing an extended period with back spasms and only returning in slowly increasing spurts.

Since his return, he’s played a crucial, starting role in the ‘Cats late-season run, winning six of their last seven games on the way to a second weekend appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

“I don’t think we’d be as successful as we are right now if we didn’t go through all those things.”

Where Kentucky would be given a fully healthy roster right now is a tantalizing question; though, to Carr’s point, it simply isn’t worth asking. The ‘Cats left to scratch are doing so at a higher level than ever.

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Their aforementioned strength will be tested once more on Friday as Kentucky faces off against the Tennessee Volunteers for the third time this season, looking to complete the season sweep and advance to the Elite Eight.

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Tennessee NCAAT: TV/Streaming Info, Preview, and Betting Odds/Predictions

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entucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) goes to the basket against Tennessee Volunteers.
Jordan Prather | IMAGN

How sweet it is, as the Kentucky Wildcats are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

This week, they are headed to Indianapolis for an opportunity to advance to the Final Four, where the Wildcats will take on a familiar foe, the Tennessee Volunteers. Having swept the regular season series, Kentucky can certainly win, but it is difficult to beat a team three times.

The Volunteers won their opening rounds in Lexington against Wofford and UCLA with relative ease to advance to this week and are in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season.

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Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Contain Chaz Lanier

Chaz Lanier is and has been Tennessee’s most dangerous offensive weapon this season. On the season, Lanier averages more than 18 points per game on 41% shooting from 3. To start the NCAA Tournament, Lanier has been on a burner, scoring 49 points on 55% from deep.

However, you wouldn’t know that just by watching his two performances against Kentucky. In those two games, his averages dropped significantly to 12.5 points per game on 17.6% shooting from 3.

Otega Oweh and Koby Brea have done an excellent job at running him off the 3-point line and forcing him to try and make plays going toward the rim, which he struggles with. They will need to continue to do the same on Friday, and they will even have a more confident Collin Chandler to assist.

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Shoot Better Than 38% from 3

Kentucky’s 3-point percentage has a direct correlation to their winning percentage.

  • When shooting better than 30% from deep: 21-5, 80% win percentage
  • When shooting worse than 30% from deep: 3-6, 33% win percentage

The Wildcats shot 50% in each of their two games against Tennessee this season, despite the Volunteers having the third-best 3-point defense in the country. Can Kentucky sustain that level of shooting?

It will be difficult to reach 50% from 3 as they did in the first two games against the Vols, but the Cats have shot 38.5% and 38.1% in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament.

Shoot 38%, and Kentucky will have a good chance of advancing.

Win the Turnover Battle

After a five game stretch of turning the ball over 12 or more times from mid-February to early March, Kentucky has significantly improved in that area.

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Since the Auburn loss on March 1st, the Wildcats have turned the ball over more than 10 times just once: The SEC Tournament against Alabama. Lamont Butler was out for that game, proving just how valuable his presence is.

Kentucky has not just been taking better care of the ball, but they have been generating more turnovers. They are averaging nearly nine steals per game, including a season-high 14 against Illinois.

As the most efficient offense, the Cats cannot afford to give the possession advantage against the inconsistent offense of Tennessee.

Make Free Throws

61%. That is Kentucky’s free throw percentage from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, going 22/36 from the charity stripe.

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Simply, they have to shoot better from the line. Kentucky has lost multiple close Tournament games in the past for this reason.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Chaz Lanier, 6-4, 199 lbs

  • 18.1 PPG (5th in SEC)
  • 41.0% 3P (3rd in SEC)
  • 3.3 3PM per game (leads SEC)

G Zakai Zeigler, 5-9, 171 pounds

  • 13.7 PPG
  • 7.4 APG (1st in SEC, 5th nationally)
  • 2.0 SPG (3rd in SEC)

F Igor Milicic, 6-10, 225 lbs

  • 9.7 PPG
  • 6.8 RPG (10th in SEC)
  • 46.9% FG

Kentucky Basketball vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Time: 7:39 PM ET on March 28th, 2025
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
TV Channel: TBS/TruTV
Announcers: Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas, and Evan Washburn will call the action.
Online Stream: Sling TV, NCAA March Madness Live, and the NCAA March Madness Live app
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network. You can listen on mobile devices with the Varsity Network app.
Replay: Check local listings on CBS Sports Network and March Madness Live for a condensed replay.
Rosters: UK | UT
Stats to Know: UK | UT
KenPom: UK | UT
Team Sheet: UK | UT

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Tennessee favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 144.5. As far as the metrics go, they give Kentucky about a 1 in three chance to advance to the Elite Eight. BartTorvik is the most confident in the Cats, giving them a 39% chance at victory. ESPN is close behind at 36.9%, followed by KenPom at 35%, DRatings at 32%, and EvanMiya at 31.1%.

Predictions: BartTorvik 74-71 is the only analytic going with a one-score loss. KenPom (76-72) and Haslametrics (75-71) are going with a four-point loss. DRatings (82-76) and EvanMiya (77-71) project the largest margin of defeat at six points. Why not Kentucky? Why not advance to the Elite Eight? Let’s keep the good vibes rolling. I’m going with a 76-71 victory, Kentucky!

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Send us your Kentucky vs. Tennessee score predictions in the comments section!

Go CATS!

Also published on A Sea of Blue.

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