Coming off a two-game road trip, the Kentucky Wildcats will return to Rupp Arena for a two-game home stand, starting with the Florida Gators on Wednesday night. This will be the second and last regular season matchup between the two teams, with the Wildcats beating the Gators in a close one in Gainesville, in their SEC opener, 87-85.

The last two games for Kentucky have been interesting. They put up their worst performance of the season against South Carolina and followed it up with a first half where they scored just 24 points against Arkansas. That said, they arguably played their best defense of the year against the Razorbacks and showed a lot of maturity to get that win in a College Gameday environment.

As for the Gators, they have won three straight, the second-longest streak in the SEC. That said, they are a team that struggles on the road, with just a 1-3 record and an average margin of defeat of 15.3 points.

Kentucky has beaten Florida in 10 of the last 11 matchups, including 4 of the last 5 in Lexington. While the Cats will be expected to win again, it won’t come easy. Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Rebound

Just like the first matchup, rebounding will be a major factor in this game. Florida is still the best rebounding team in the country, averaging more than 44.5 per game. In their last game against Georgia, they outrebounded them by 21. For comparison, Kentucky only outrebounded Georgia by one in their win over them earlier this month.

The Wildcats have been a middle-of-the-road rebounding team this season, ranked 7th in the SEC. That said, they certainly have the size to rebound well, but at times lack the desire and physicality, both areas they have shown improvement in of late. The big especially will have to get Micah Handlogten out of position, who grabbed six offensive rebounds in the first matchup.

Defensive Consistency

As bad as last week’s performances were for Kentucky on offense, the strides in defense could be seen, holding opponents to under 41 percent shooting in back-to-back games for the first time this season. Their defensive KenPom rating jumped 20+ spots, but can they keep it up against the 13th most efficient offense in the country?

Kentucky will first have to stop Florida in transition, which is where they were successful in Gainesville and gained a lot of their momentum. If they are successful in that, then it’s about fighting through screens and staying between the ball and the basket when Florida gets in their half-court sets. That said, Walter Clayton and Will Richard are two of the best shooters in the SEC.

If Kentucky plays with the communication and urgency they have shown of late, it will show that they are trending in the right direction.

Lineups

In his weekly call-in show, John Calipari talked about why he played so many lineups last week. “Play everybody in the first half and figure out who needs to play in this game,” he said. While he acknowledges February is here and there is not much practice time left, he finally has a full roster and is looking for some combinations and lineups that work.

The one lineup that Calipari mentioned several times was: DJ Wagner-Reed Sheppard-Antonio Reeves-Tre Mitchell-Ugonna Onyenso. They were “REALLY good,” Calipari said, and even said that that may be Kentucky’s best defensive/finishing lineup right now.

It is clear that Wagner-Sheppard-Reeves-Mitchell is the base of the lineup right now, with the fifth rotating depending on the matchup and it will be interesting to see who challenges and cements themself there.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Walter Clayton Jr, 6-2, 195 lbs

• 15.9 PPG (8th in SEC)
• 3.8 RPG
• 2.8 APG
• 44 3PM (T-7th in SEC)

G Zyon Pullin, 6-4, 206 lbs

• 14.9 PPG (14th in SEC)
• 4.8 APG (2nd in SEC)
• 3.6 RPG
• 38.1% 3P (T-12th SEC)

G Riley Kugel, 6-5, 207 lbs (In three career games vs Kentucky)

• 15 PPG
• 48.2% FG
• 50% 3P
• 1.7 SPG

Kentucky Wildcats Basketball vs. Florida Gators

• Date: January 31st, 2024

• Time: 8:00 pm ET
• Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, KY.
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Announcers: Dan Shulman and Jay Bilas
• Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
• Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
• Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
• Rosters: UK | FLA
• Stats to Know: UK | FLA
• KenPom: UK | FLA
• Odds: ESPN’s matchup predictor is much more confident in Kentucky than it was when they traveled to Gainesville, giving them a 71.4% chance to win. Bart Torvik and EvanMiya are in the same ballpark, still favoring the Cats by 67% and 69%.
• Predictions: All the projects expect Kentucky to win in a high-scoring contest. Bart Torvik and EvanMiya have the Cats by five points, 92-87 and 88-83, respectively. Haslametrics gives Kentucky a little more cushion, 91-84.

Also published on A Sea of Blue.