The Kentucky Wildcats are off to a strong start in SEC play after a 106-100 victory over the Florida Gators. Now, they travel to Athens to take on the Georgia Bulldogs for just their second road game of the season and first SEC road game.

Coached by former Florida head coach Mike White, the Bulldogs are looking to make their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2015. They are on track to do that with a 12-2 record and the No. 36 spot in the NET rankings.

However, the Bulldogs’ schedule has not exactly been the strongest, only playing three top-75 opponents, going 1-2, with a win over St John’s and losses to Marquette and Ole Miss by double digits. They’re coming off a 63-51 loss in Oxford.

Interestingly, Kentucky has lost its last two contests in Athens, last winning at Georgia in 2020.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Game Pace

Coming off a very fast-paced game against Florida, Kentucky will get the opposite against Georiga.

On the season, the Bulldogs have put up an average of 80.4 points per game, but against power conference opponents, that number drops to just over 66 points per game. The case is the same for the average number of possessions, dropping from 71.4 per game to 65.6.

For comparison, Kentucky averages nearly 75 possessions per game.

The Wildcats are at their best when they are playing at a fast pace, so they would like to speed the Bulldogs up and make them uncomfortable, as they tend to make mistakes at that pace.

Force Turnovers, Take Advantage

One way to speed up the game is by forcing turnovers, something Kentucky has done really well at times this season, most recently against Brown. In that game, the Wildcats scored 33 points on 23 turnovers, a highly efficient 1.4 per possession clip.

Georiga is one of the worst teams in the country, and the SEC, in turning the ball over. Doing so an average of 13.3 times per game. The main culprits are their trio of guards: Silas Demary (2.9 TOPG), De’Shayne Montgomery (2.0 TOPG), and Tyrin Lawrence (1.9 TOPG).

With the defensive ball pressure that Lamont Butler and Otega Oweh bring, I would expect them to get their hands on quite a few steals, helping Kentucky speed the game up and give them some extra possessions.

Great Offense vs. Stout Defense

Kentucky enters this game with one of the best offenses in college basketball, while Georgia has one of the best defenses. The Wildcats are currently ranked No. 5 in KenPom offensive efficiency, while Georgia ranks No. 28 in defensive efficiency.

The Wildcats have hit 80+ points in 10 of 13 games, while Georgia has only allowed one opponent to hit that mark, an 80-69 neutral-court loss to Marquette. Georgia has allowed a mere 55.8 points per game over its last six home games.

We know how much the Cats struggled away from Rupp Arena against good defensive teams in Clemson and Ohio State. They’ll need to buck that trend this week if they want to come out of Athens with a win.

Rebounding Battle

Georgia does not lack size or physicality, and they use that on the boards. The frontcourt trio of Asa Newell, RJ Godfrey, and Somto Cyril (former UK commit) lead the Bulldogs on the boards.

By average, Kentucky is a better rebounding team than Georgia. However, they too often allow teams to build up rebounding margins on them before refocusing. Just like the first ten minutes against Florida, where the Gators had a 13-4 rebound advantage.

You have to rebound all 40 minutes on the road in the SEC, or you could be vulnerable to an upset on the road in the SEC.

Opposing Players to Watch

F Asa Newell 6-11, 220 lbs

• 15.4 PPG
• 6.9 RPG
• 1.1 BPG

G Dakota Leffew 6-5, 195 lbs

• 12.3 PPG
• 40.2% 3P
• 2.6 APG

G Silas Demary 6-5, 195 lbs

• 11.9 PPG
• 3.0 APG
• 2.9 TOPG

Kentucky Basketball (12-2) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (12-2)

Time: 7:00 PM ET on January 7th, 2024
Location: Stegeman Coliseum in Athens, GA
TV Channel: SEC Network
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and ESPN network of channels (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | UGA
Stats to Know: UK | UGA
KenPom: UK | UGA
Team Sheet: UK | UGA

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for the game, so check back later for that. The metrics all give Kentucky the advantage in chance of victory, but by a slim margin. EvanMiya gives Kentucky a 57.3% chance of winning, Bart Torvik is at 52%, KenPom is at 55%, and ESPN is at 53.3%.

Predictions: EvanMiya has Kentucky winning 78-76, the largest margin of the group. Bart Torvik, Haslametrics, and KenPom have the Cats winning 78-77. This is a game that Kentucky could struggle, with Georgia playing a similar style to Clemson and Ohio State. However, after a slow start, I’m going with an 84-69 victory, Kentucky!

How do you see this one going? Send us your Kentucky vs. Georgia score predictions in the comments section!

Go CATS!!

Following the Wildcats’ 88-54 home win over the Brown Bears on Tuesday, Dec. 31, we had the chance to ask Coach Pope about the team’s particularly impressive 18:5 assist-to-turnover ratio in the matchup.

His answer outlines a path to success as the Cats move forward into conference play, saying, “Those numbers are really big… they’re just a manifestation of if we’re playing right on the offensive end.”

That night in particular, the positive ratio in that regard led to Kentucky shooting a striking 50% from the field, as well as 36% from downtown. But offense isn’t the only facet of the game to see an uptick.

“The turnover number is an indication of if we’re giving ourselves a chance, a real chance, to guard on the defensive end,” he continued.

Not only did Kentucky force a season-high 23 turnovers against the Bears, but their total 54 points was the lowest of any Kentucky opponent this season. Add five blocks into that mix and you’ve got a real recipe for success on defense.

“Those two numbers loom large for us, they’re really important, and if we can stay above a 3:1 as a team I’ll be elated. We’ll have a chance to win a lot of games.”

Looking back at the 13 games Kentucky has played thus far, that aforementioned 3:1 benchmark becomes especially prevalent.

In their lone two losses, against Clemson and Ohio State, Kentucky tallied only 11 assists in either against 12 and 10 turnovers, respectively. With a ratio that tight, the Cats struggle on both sides of the ball.

Now, what about when Kentucky does the opposite?

In equivalent, if not more treacherous matchups in comparison to their losses, Kentucky posted a 17:7 ratio in their crucial win over Gonzaga, 17:11 against Duke, and 23:11 versus Louisville.

While those aren’t quite 3:1, they do paint a positive outlook given the negative alternative when dishes and dumps are within only a few notches of one another on the stat sheet.

In the season-opener against Wright State, the Wildcats achieved a staggering 30:7 ratio in a 41-point win. In their 49-point rout over Jackson State just a few weeks later, they’d chart a 29:10 ratio. 2.9:1 is close enough for domination, it seems.

On the year as a whole, the team averages about 19 assists to nine turnovers.

In just about every game in the season so far, the assist-to-turnover ratio has been a solid indicator of the final results that follow. The statistic represents how well the team is responding to physicality on offense, as well as how effectively they apply it on defense.

The more extreme the chasm between the two, the better, but even if Kentucky doesn’t hit that golden 3:1 benchmark, they can still garner a demonstrable advantage over their opponent by taking care of the ball on one end, and sharing it on the other.

As the Wildcats begin play in what is arguably the grittiest conference in the country, keep an eye on that metric; it may very well determine where Kentucky ends up when the dust ultimately settles in the SEC.

With the Kentucky Wildcats ranked in the top 10 with an 11-2 record, including big wins over Duke and Gonzaga, it’s been a good start to the Mark Pope era as the non-conference slate comes to an end.

However, the most difficult is yet to come.

Entering conference play in an SEC that is being discussed as one of the strongest conferences in recent memory, Kentucky has one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country. 14 of their 18 conference games will be Quad I opportunities. Their first opponent will be the Florida Gators on Saturday.

Considered one of the best young coaches in the country, Todd Golden has led Florida to a 13-0 record, holding the nation’s longest active win streak and No. 5 national ranking in the Coaches Poll. However, the Gators have played just one top-50 KenPom team in a struggling North Carolina squad.

Is Kentucky ready for the physicality of the SEC? Is Florida for real? Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Pace and Defense

Kentucky and Florida both rank top 10 in field goal attempts and average just more than 15 seconds per possession. Meaning, this is going to be a fast-paced contest with a lot of shots.

Just like Kentucky, Florida prioritizes attacking in transition. The best way to stop that is by scoring. So, in a way, Kentucky’s best defense against Florida is their offense. That means efficient movement, on and off the ball, and good shot selection.

When getting into halfcourt defense, Kentucky needs to be prepared for a lot of ball screens, an area they have been focusing on since the loss to Ohio State. “All of our guys were struggling to remember if there was anything involved in the game of basketball except for ball screen defense. We repped and repped and repped,” Pope said after the Brown win.

Offensive Rebounding Battle

Florida is the best rebounding team in the country by average. Statistically, Kentucky is, too, but there have been times they have lacked effort on the boards, most recently in the first half against Brown.

With Florida, it’s not just one player; it’s a balanced attack, with six players averaging more than five rebounds per game. All five Kentucky players on the floor will need to make the effort to box out and not look to leak out early.

Florida really excels on the offensive glass, rebounding 41% of their misses. That said, they give up nearly 10 offensive rebounds to their opponent per game, an area where Mark Pope prioritizes every game.

If the Cats can be in the net-positive with offensive rebounds, it would be huge for their chances to win.

Free Throws

Statistically, Florida’s biggest weakness is its free-throw shooting, which is 73.4% compared to Kentucky’s 73.8%.

Similar to Kentucky, the Gators have been inconsistent from the charity stripe, shooting nearly 82% on 33 attempts in one game this season to shooting 56% on 25 attempts in another.

All projections expect this to be a close game and taking advantage of FREE throws will always help your chances to win.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Walter Clayton Jr 6-3, 195 lbs

• 17.2 PPG (10th in SEC)
• 3.8 APG
• 37% 3P

G Will Richard 6-4, 206 lbs

• 14.2 PPG
• 5.0 RPG
• 2.2 SPG (8th in SEC)

F Alex Condon

• 11.2 PPG
• 7.5 RPG (10th in SEC)
• 1.5 BPG (8th in SEC)

Kentucky Basketball (11-2) vs. Florida Gators (13-0)

Time: 11:00 AM ET on January 4th, 2024
Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: ESPN
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and ESPN network of channels (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | FLA
Stats to Know: UK | FLA
KenPom: UK | FLA
Team Sheet: UK | FLA

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 165.5. EvanMiya gives Kentucky a 43.9% chance of winning, Bart Torvik is at 54%, KenPom is at 47%, and ESPN is at 58.8%.

Predictions: EvanMiya has Florida winning 82-77. Bart Torvik has the Cats winning an 83-82 thriller. Haslametrics is going with an 84-78 Florida victory. KenPom has the Gators winning 82-81. I’ll give the home team the edge in this one and predict an 85-83 victory, Kentucky!

How do you see this one going? Send us your Kentucky vs. Florida score predictions in the comments section!

Go CATS!!