The Kentucky Wildcats got a big-time road win against Mississippi State on Saturday. Their reward? Two top-15 opponents this week, the first of which will be the Texas A&M Aggies on Tuesday night.
Coached by two-time SEC Coach of the Year Buzz Williams, the Aggies are currently ranked 11th nationally, their highest ranking since the 2017-18 season. Falling just one spot after a loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide on Saturday.
Texas A&M has not won in Lexington since their inaugural season in the SEC in 2013, but have won two in a row.
The big storyline for this game is around A&M guard and two-time All-SEC selection Wade Taylor IV, who has missed two games in a row with an undisclosed injury, rumored to be his knee. Williams says he does not have any recovery timetable.
Losing Taylor, their best playmaker, is a big loss for A&M. However, beating a top-20 Oklahoma team and only losing to Alabama by six points will still be a hard-fought contest for Kentucky.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Limit A&M on the Offensive Boards
Texas A&M is the best offensive-rebounding team in the country in nearly every category. The Aggies rebound 44% of their shots, collecting nearly 15 offensive rebounds per game. That said, they shoot just over 43% from the field, so their quality of shots are not great.
Kentucky’s struggles on the offensive glass have been apparent and is an area where Mark Pope and the staff are trying to improve quickly. However, they have given up double-figure offensive rebounds in three straight games.
With four players with more than 30 offensive rebounds on the season, A&M crashes the offensive glass as a team. To counter that, Kentucky will need to box out as a team.
Speed Up the Game
By adjusted tempo, Texas A&M plays at the fourth-slowest pace in the SEC. That is a pace that Kentucky has struggled to play at often this season, and they would like to speed up the game.
A&M guard Zhuric Phelps is someone that the Wildcats can exploit on defense, as he commits more than three turnovers per game. If Kentucky can secure the boards, they can push the ball at their own pace.
Interior Defense, Maintain Foul Trouble
Running a dribble-drive offense, Texas A&M is not a team that looks to shoot threes first. This means that Kentucky will likely prioritize defending the drive rather than the shot. Communication will be key in ball-screen situations, an area where the Wildcats have improved a lot in recent weeks.
That said, the Aggies are very good at drawing fouls. Drawing more than 20 fouls on their opponent per game, they rank in the top 25 in the country. With a lineup that is 7-8 players deep, defending without fouling will be critical for Kentucky.
Opposing Players to Watch*
*Note: If Taylor does not play.
G Zhuric Phelps 6-4, 190 lbs
- 15.4 PPG
- 4.9 RPG
- 2.7 APG
- 3.2 TOPG
F Henry Coleman III 6-8, 250 lbs
F Pharrel Payne 6-9, 250 lbs
Time: 7:00 PM ET on January 14th
Location: Central Bank Center at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY
TV Channel: ESPN2
Announcers: Karl Ravech and Jimmy Dykes
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | A&M
Stats to Know: UK | A&M
KenPom: UK | A&M
Team Sheet: UK | A&M
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 6.5 points with an over/under 157.5. That line is likely smaller if Wade Taylor IV plays, so it could indicate he’s trending toward being out Tuesday. Bart Torvik is the most confident in Kentucky’s chances to win at 67%. EvanMiya, again, is the most pessimistic, giving the Cats just a 58.3% chance of victory. ESPN (60.6%) and KenPom (60%) fall in between.
Predictions: The analytics predict a narrow Wildcat victory. Bart Torvik (81-76) is the sole projection going with a two-possession victory. KenPom (80-77), EvanMiya (79-76), and Haslametrics (79-78) going with a one-score victory. A&M may be without Taylor, their best player. While they still won’t be an easy out, I’m going with an 84-77 victory, Kentucky!
How do you see this one going? Send us your Kentucky vs. Texas A&M score predictions in the comments section!
Go Cats!!
Also posted on A Sea of Blue.
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