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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Louisville: How to Watch, Things to Know, & Predictions

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Following a loss to Missouri, where the Kentucky Wildcats were never in the game, the tension and frustration within the Big Blue Nation are at the highest it has been in the John Calipari era. Fortunately, the Wildcats have a chance to relieve some of that pressure with a rivalry game against the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday.

Even with their struggles, Kentucky’s problems do not compare to those of Louisville. Sitting at 2-11, the Cardinals are not favored to win another game this season. In addition, they rank 343rd of 365 in the NET rankings, a ranking system that complies a team’s body of work for the NCAA Tournament.

With that said, Kentucky is expected to win their first game against Louisville since 2019 (lost in 2020, canceled in 2021), and in a BIG way. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup and look at three things to look for.

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Better Offensive Performance, Find Production at the Four

Twelve games into the season – effectively a third – and the Wildcats have no offensive identity or any set rotations. Considering this is a team that many thought had the talent of a Final Four contender, this is concerning.

This is a team with a very similar roster makeup to last season. Of course, Oscar Tshiebwe and Sahvir Wheeler returned, but this team has CJ Fredrick and Antonio Reeves in place of Kellan Grady and Davion Mintz for shooting, and Cason Wallace in place of TyTy Washington as the star freshman. So why is this team performing so poorly?

The biggest difference? The production at the four spot. When comparing Keion Brooks last season and Jacob Toppin this season, Brooks was much more consistent. Through thirteen games, Brooks averaged 10.5 points on 48.3 percent shooting, compared to just 10.5 points and 40 percent shooting. To make matters worse, Toppin has not scored more than five points in nearly a month (12/4, Michigan).

There are other offensive problems, such as poor execution and poor spacing that needs to be corrected, but finding consistent production at the four spot, aiding Oscar Tshiebwe and Cason Wallace, would make it much easier to solve the rest of the issues.

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On paper, this is Kentucky’s easiest game on the schedule. While a convincing victory feels like a must over Louisville, this is an opportunity for Kentucky to find that other contributor.(Hint: Chris Livingston is the best option.)

Convert at the Free Throw Line

It may not seem like it, but Kentucky is ranked top 20 in the country in three-point percentage at 39.5 percent. Yet, the Wildcats are ranked 298th in free throw percentage.

The three-point shooting is indicative of a team that can shoot, but their free throw shooting shows a team, that as John Calipari has said, is not mentally tough. This has cost the Wildcats the game against Michigan State, and further deepened their hole in other games this season as well (i.e. UCLA).

Louisville may not have the most efficient defense, but they do a good job of not fouling. With that said, Kentucky will need to capitalize on the opportunities they are given at the charity stripe.

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While Saturday’s game shouldn’t come down to free throws, the players need to see some go through the net, and ultimately build their confidence to knock down the free throws when it matters most.

Attendance

Take a look at social media or ask a fellow Kentucky fan, there is plenty of frustration. With a fanbase that desperately wants to cheer on their Wildcats in a big moment, disappointment seems to be a too often result as of late.

To add to that, the Kentucky football team is playing at the same exact time in the Music City Bowl against Iowa down in Nashville.

That begs the question, what will the attendance be?

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Given the circumstances and the fact that Louisville is very bad, I still expect Rupp Arena to be at or close to full capacity given that this is the first Kentucky-Louisville game in Lexington in three years. However, the fans could make a statement and it would not be surprising to see the online fan presence in favor of the bowl game.

Kentucky Basketball vs. Louisville Cardinals

Time/Date: 12:00 pm ET on Saturday, December 31st, 2022.
Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY
TV Channel: CBS
Announcers: TBA
Online Stream: CBS Sports Network Live
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: CBS Sports Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | UofL
Team SheetsUK | UofL
Stats To Know: UK | UofL

Odds: The betting line has yet to be released for the game. Despite a bad performance against Missouri, ESPN’s matchup predictor nearly guarantees a win for Kentucky, giving the Wildcats a 98.4% chance of winning, while Bart Torvik gives Missouri a 98% advantage.

Predictions: The computer models do not expect this game to be closer as Bart Torvik picks the Wildcats to lose in a 78-56 blowout.

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Also published on A Sea of Blue.

Men's Basketball

“Real” Kentucky Fans Called Out By ESPN Analyst

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ESPN

“You should get lost in your team and the journey.”

That is the message that Seth Greenberg had to Kentucky fans on Saturday, suggesting that they are more worried about John Calipari and the Arkansas Razorbacks than they are about their own team.

This isn’t the first time that Greenberg, a close friend of Calipari, has criticized Kentucky fans since Calipari’s departure. When the move was first announced last spring, he called the support system “suffocating.” To be fair, that was probably true due to the lack of postseason success.

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“It is suffocating when you have your support system isn’t on the same page,” Greenberg said. “Coaching’s hard enough, but when your support system is pulling in another direction that becomes a problem.”

Kentucky fans are more than focused on their team, which in Mark Pope’s first season is ranked in the top 10 with five top 15 wins. That said, to ask them to completely ignore the Coach who had led them for the previous fifteen seasons, both good and bad, is not realistic.

Comparing what you have, to what you had is a natural human trait. With time, that desire to compare will dissipate and Calipari will be welcomed back into the good graces of Kentucky fans.

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky Drops Close Game to Alabama, Lacks Execution Down the Stretch

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Kentucky Wildcats head coach Mark Pope reacts to the action during the second half against the Alabama Crimson Tide at Rupp Arena.
Jordan Prather | IMAGN

Kentucky came into this game looking to pick up another Top 25 win, however, Alabama had a different idea.

The Alabama duo of Mark Sears and Grant Nelson just proved to be too much for the Wildcats to handle. Alabama’s duo led them to a 102-97 victory and handed Kentucky the first loss in Rupp Arena of the Mark Pope era.

Mark Sears finished the game with 24 points and 9 assists while Grant Nelson finished with 25 points and 12 rebounds of his own.

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Grant Nelson came out scorching hot having 12 points in the first 10 minutes and it just didn’t seem like Kentucky had much of an answer early. Nelson managed to put up 19 points in the first half alone.

The second half was all Mark Sears. Sears started the game slow, but exploded in the 2nd half. He kept knocking down big shot after big shot right when it seemed like Kentucky was going to take over the lead.

Otega Oweh Monster Game

On the Kentucky side, they were led in scoring by Junior Otega Oweh. Oweh finished with 21 points all while shooting an impressive 8-14 from the field.

Lamont Butler also finished with a huge game all while playing through a left shoulder injury. Butler ended the game with 17 points 8 assists and 4 rebounds while also coming up with some huge defensive plays to keep Kentucky in the game.

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Even with these respective performances from Otega Oweh and Lamont Butler, Kentucky just couldn’t take the lead and hold onto it. Alabama seemed to hit clutch shot after clutch shot and done just enough to stay ahead of the Cats and pick up a huge road win.

Kentucky ‘Bye Week’

Kentucky will not return to action until next Saturday, January, 25th when they look to rebound on the road vs Vanderbilt. This bye week is coming at the perfect time for Kentucky. They have had some tough injury luck this season as we have seen Lamont Butler, Andrew Carr, and Brandon Garrison all either play through injuries or miss games so far this season.

Pope said this bye week will be a huge one as the team looks to get healthy and stay healthy, for the remainder of their SEC schedule.

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Men's Basketball

Five-Star Forward Caleb Wilson: A Kentucky Lock or UNC Steal?

The chase for star forward Caleb Wilson appears to be coming down to the wire between Kentucky and North Carolina.

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Top basketball recruit Caleb Wilson on his visit to Kentucky.
UK Athletics

While many of the Big Blue Nation are enthralled with the change in pace and perspective that this year’s veteran-heavy team have provided, most can’t help but excitedly look on to what Mark Pope is building for next season, too.

Despite having only secured three recruits thus far, Kentucky already has a top five freshman class for the 2025-26′ season, according to 247Sports. And Coach Pope and company aren’t done yet.

The long-rumored cherry on top, if you will, for the upcoming class has been five-star power forward Caleb Wilson, out of Holy Innocents Episcopal School in Atlanta, GA.

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Wilson, who is widely recognized to be down to Kentucky and North Carolina at this point in his recruitment, has long been tied to Mark Pope’s new regime since he began assembling it last year.

Big Blue Dominos

First came four-star, 6’10 center Malachi Moreno, a hometown recruit and a local favorite. Then came five-star, “I’m KY ’til I die” guard Jasper Johnson, who’s commitment to Kentucky felt like a comeback win for Pope after Alabama had been heavily favored to land him for much of the recruitment race.

The latest and last of which was Acaden Lewis; a four-star guard set to run with Johnson in the backcourt, who cited Coach Pope’s authenticity as a primary reason for his decision.

In the new age of UK basketball in which the one-and-done philosophy of old is far less prevalent, Wilson is seen as the potential final piece of Mark Pope’s puzzle for next season. He’d fit perfectly as a physical presence in the paint next to Moreno, possessing breakout athletic ability and a clear knowledge of the game.

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Four highly-touted recruits, on top of multiple expected/possible returners and transfer portal options, would strike a balance between weathered experience and raw talent unlike anything Kentucky has seen in years.

So what’s the deal with Wilson, then? Well, the good news is a commitment is generally anticipated within the month.

The not-so-good news, though not exactly bad either, is that his outlook is muddier than ever.

“Ask Again Later”

While there are no official predictions via the 247Sports Crystal Ball, multiple insiders are touting differing opinions. Anecdotes scattered throughout the last few months from various sources all seemed to point to Kentucky. That is, until Travis Branham, of 247Sports, said that he believes UNC has taken the lead just earlier this week.

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Yet Joe Tipton, almost in unison with Branham, declared the opposite, “Everything I’ve heard suggests UK is in the driver’s seat,” he said on “Here Comes the Boom.”

Both Tipton and Branham are reputable reporters with evidenced pasts, and they aren’t alone on either end of this split. Where there’s smoke, there’s fire, and in this case, it seems to be coming from both sides.

As it usually goes with these kinds of things, all the Kentucky faithful can really do is hurry up and wait. Either way, what Mark Pope is done in less than one year at Kentucky is mightily impressive, and even being in the conversation for Wilson at this stage is encouraging.

Let’s just hope he goes for the darker blue cap on commitment day.

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