The Kentucky Wildcats are looking for a much better performance after their worst game of the season against Colgate. On Saturday, they will get the opportunity to do that against one of the biggest rivals in the Louisville Cardinals.
This season, the rivalry will have a new look as both programs are led by likable, but super passionate first-year head coaches in Mark Pope and Pat Kelsey. The two new coaches will bring their own infectious energy into the series.
As for the players, there is not a single rotational player for either team that has played in the rivalry. Despite that, players from both teams understand the importance of the game. Louisville guard Terrence Ewards, it was a selling point to get them to play at Louisville, and they are ready for the challenge.
“We ready,” Edwards said after Louisville’s win over UTEP on Wednesday. “Just to go into this big rivalry game — All of us really committed for this game. Some of us came here just to play against Kentucky.”
As they say, ‘If you can’t play for them, play against them.’ Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Three-Point Shooting
Both Kentucky and Louisville attempt a lot of threes. However, one team is significantly more efficient than the other.
- Louisville: 31.8 3PA (6th), 27% 3P (341st)
- Kentucky: 28.7 3PA (32nd), 35.5% 3P (96th)
That said, Kentucky has not been shooting the ball well as of late. After shooting 42.3 percent over the first five games of the season, they have shot just 28.3 percent over the last five games.
Louisville’s three-point defense is not great either, allowing power conference opponents to shoot an average of 37.9 percent. For context, that would be in the bottom 50 in the country nationally. You have to think at some point Kentucky breaks their shooting slump.
Take Care of the Ball
Louisville plays among one of the fastest paces in the country and that starts on the defensive end. With a top-15 defensive turnover rate, the Cardinals want to force their opponents into mistakes and generate extra possessions. Point guard Chucky Hepburn averages 3.2 per game alone, the second-best mark in that nation.
Fortunately, the Wildcats have been good at taking care of the ball this season, turning it over less than ten times per game, 21st in the nation. Lamont Butler being back at point guard should help this, but Amari Williams and Brandon Garrison have to be careful as they initiate the offense from the high post.
Rebounding Battle
Despite being one of the best rebounding teams in the country in terms of averages, Kentucky has found themselves in first-half deficits on the boards multiple times already this season.
Looking for a marquee win after losing three of their last four, Louisville is going to play a desperate brand of basketball. They look for offensive rebounds, getting double-digit offensive boards in 8 of their 10 games. Kentucky needs to attack the glass early and consistently.
Will Lamont Butler Play?
It’s been very clear over the last two games that Kentucky misses Lamont Butler. His leadership, perimeter defense, and point guard skills are all something Kentucky could use right now.
After tweaking his ankle against Clemson more than a week ago, I have been told he is expected to play against Louisville. That would certainly help the team in nearly all facets.
Opposing Players to Watch
G Chucky Hepburn 6-2, 190 lbs
G Terrence Edwards 6-6. 205 lbs
- 12.9 PPG
- 2.1 APG
- 42.1% FG
G Reyne Smith 6-2, 190 lbs
- 12.1 PPG
- 37.1% 3P
- 90% of FG attempts are three-pointers
Time: 5:15 PM ET on December 14th
Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: ESPN
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and ESPN network of channels (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | LOU
Stats to Know: UK | LOU
KenPom: UK | LOU
Team Sheet: UK | LOU
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds, so please check back later for those. The projections are very confident in Kentucky, giving them at least an 84 percent chance at victory: ESPN (86.8%), EvanMiya (86.7%), KenPom (85%), and Bart Torvik (84%).
Predictions: Those same analytics project a double-digit win for the Cats! Haslametrics and EvanMiya are separated by just one point, projecting 84-70 and 83-70 win for Kentucky respectively. Bart Torvik (84-73) and KenPom (83-72) both have the Cats winning by eleven points. I think Kentucky will continue their dominance in the series with an 88-72 win.
How do you see this one playing out? Send us your Kentucky vs. Louisville score predictions!
And Go CATS!!
Also posted on a Sea of Blue.
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