The Kentucky Wildcats started the new year and SEC play with an impressive road victory against the Florida Gators, against much adversity. On Tuesday, the Wildcats will return to action against the Missouri Tigers, who have gotten the best of Kentucky in two of the last three seasons. Given the comments from Missouri (both public and private), I would say this is one Kentucky’s staff will be motivated to win.
This year’s Missouri team lost eight players from last season’s roster, including their four top leading scorers. With an 8-6 record, the Tigers’ best win has come against (according to the NET rankings) Pittsburgh, who is ranked 195th in KenPom.
That said, Missouri shoots and makes a lot of threes, top three in the SEC in both categories this season, and any team in the SEC is capable of winning if you come in ill-prepared. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
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Perimeter Defense
It feels like opposing teams shoot an unreal percentage from three in Rupp Arena, but on the season opponents are shooting just 31.2 percent in Rupp for the year. This is right in line with the 31 percent they have allowed this season thus far, ranked 75th nationally.
That said, Missouri has attempted the second-most threes in the SEC this season and will hoist plenty more on Tuesday. With three guards all averaging double-figures and shooting 40%+ from three, including two shooting 50%+, the Wildcats need to close out on shooters.
Take Care of the Ball
Taking care of the ball is been a signature of this year’s Kentucky team, averaging just 9.4 per game and 14th nationally. However, to start the game against Florida, they had seven turnovers just in the first half.
Against Missouri, who often aggressively uses a 1-3-1 zone defense to create pressure and force mistakes, the Wildcats must make sound, but quick passes. The Wildcats have performed well against zone this season, so it will be interesting to see how often Missouri will turn to this.
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Make Free Throws
Missouri’s defense isn’t great, but they don’t give up things easily, particularly at the rim. The Tigers rank top 10 nationally in blocks per game, but also fouls at the second-highest rate in the SEC behind Alabama.
Penetration being a key part of Kentucky’s offense, they will get chances to kick it back out for open looks, but also free throws. This has been one of Calipari’s better free throw shooting teams at Kentucky, shooting 73.4 percent. However, they did miss several 1-and-1’s against Florida.
Odds: ESPN’s matchup predictor has a lot of confidence in the Cats, giving them an 88% chance at victory, which EvanMiya is also in agreement with. Bart Torvik has even more confidence in Kentucky, projecting a 91% shot at the win. Kentucky is currently 9-4 against the spread, while Florida is 4-10.
Predictions: All the projections are within just a few points of each other. Bart Torvik and Haslametrics choose Kentucky 88-73 and 88-74, respectively. EvanMiya projects an 88-75 win for Kentucky and.
Kentucky’s lack of recent success in the SEC Tournament is well-known by the Big Blue Nation, advancing just once in the last four SEC Tournaments.
With Mark Pope’s injection of energy into the fanbase and a team that has outperformed expectations, fans are making the journey to Nashville once again with the hope of reclaiming the Tournament the Wildcats have won 31 times, 23 more than the next closest (Alabama, 8). Pope and the Cats want to deliver.
“There is nothing in the world that my guys would like more than to gift BBN an incredible week here,” Pope said to the media in a Nashville hotel lobby on Wednesday. That (SEC Tournament) means a lot to us. We’re really devoted to doing everything we can humanly possible as a team to make that happen.”
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What’s it going to take for Kentucky to have a successful week? Pope says that the team needs to get “lost” in each possession.
“Our goal is to come here and win,” Pope started. “The way that we’re going to win is, we’re going to come here and think about this possession. We’re going to be lost with our whole heart in this possession. When the next possession comes, we’re going to be lost in that possession.”
“If we are going to give ourselves the best chance to be successful, it doesn’t guarantee anything, but the best chance for us to be successful; our whole heart, mind and soul are going to be lost in the possession that we are in right now. If we can do that consistently, we’re going to be successful.”
The Wildcats tip-off their first game of the postseason on Wednesday night against the Oklahoma Sooners at approximately 9:30 EST on the SEC Network.
83-82. The final score as Kentucky traveled on the road to Norman, Oklahoma, in late February; getting the win over the Oklahoma Sooners in what will forever be known as the Otega Oweh game, who scored 21 of the Wildcats’ 23 points, including the game winner.
As you can expect in a closely contested conference matchup, some words were exchanged between teams during and after the game, leaving some bad blood. With Oklahoma taking care of Georgia in the opening round of the SEC Tournament, a rematch is set for Wednesday night in Nashville.
An opportunity the Sooners hoped they would have.
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“It was very competitive throughout the whole game,” star Sooners guard Jeremiah Fears said of the first game against Kentucky. “They (Kentucky) did a great job of playing together. We did a great job of playing together. Unfortunately, they just came out on top and made more winning plays down the stretch.”
That said, Fears’ teammates weren’t as filtered about their chance at a ‘get back’ against the Cats.
“We feel like we should’ve won down there in crunch time,” Oklahoma wing Glenn Taylor Jr. said. “Our backs are against the wall, and we know we have to get them. We’re going on a revenge tour. We feel like we have to go get Kentucky tomorrow. We’re ready.”
“We’re more than hungry,” Sooners guard Kobe Elvis said. “We let one go. I don’t even have the words to describe what we’re feeling. We’re definitely going to be coming ready.”
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Then there is Jalon Moore, who was involved in a postgame exchange with Brandon Garrison.
“It’s just competitive, a competitive edge for all players. We all wanted to win, so those emotions came out,” Moore said. “When it comes to the ball being tipped, we’re going to lock in, and we’ll get the dub.”
Moore highlights that this Oklahoma team is different than the one that lost to Kentucky just two weeks ago.
“We’re a different team now than when we played them. So, being able to close out the game tomorrow and get a dub, that’s going to be fun. It’s going to be a fun and physical game.”
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The Wildcats and Sooners are set to tip off at 9:30 EST on the SEC Network.
This season has been filled with ups and downs for Head Coach Mark Pope and the Wildcats, one that has been filled with injuries, unnecessary upsets, and blood, sweat and tears.
However, looking back on the season, this team competed when it mattered most. They went 8-3 in games against AP top 15 teams, tying the 78-79 Duke Blue Devils and the 92-93 Indiana Hoosiers for the most ever in a season.
Kentucky took down No. 6 Duke, No. 7 Gonzaga, No. 6 Florida, No. 14 Mississippi State, No. 11 Texas A&M, No. 8 Tennessee (again when the Volunteers were ranked No. 5), and No. 15 Missouri.
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Although they will be without Jaxson Robinson, their second leading scorer with 13.0 points per game and the energetic Kerr Kriisa off of the bench, who’s fit perfectly for tournament play, the 21-10 Wildcats have continued to fight through adversity without these two. Lamont Butler, the team’s third leading scorer, has also been out a number of games.
Look at the game on Jan. 28 when Kentucky went on the road against the rival Tennesee Volunteers. Kentucky was slated to get blown out on the road, coming in as +10.5 underdogs.
However, with Butler and Kriisa both out, Koby Brea stepped up with 18 points and Robinson tacked on 17 points. The Wildcats left Knoxville with a shocking 78-73 upset win.
Since then, the Cats’ record may not necessarily indicate how good of a basketball team they are. They play in the best conference in basketball with the SEC, one that holds a plethora of the top teams in the nation and is head over heels above any other.
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The Duke Blue Devils for example, are currently ranked No. 2 in the nation and have the best player in the country with Cooper Flagg. Yet, 13 total teams in the SEC have more ranked wins than Duke.
That instantly screams “Kentucky has played against the best of the best all season long and are slated for March Madness.”
Heart has been displayed by this team over the season, but none more against the Oklahoma Sooners on the road on Feb. 26. Otega Oweh scored 18 straight points for the Wildcats, eventually hitting the game-winning shot.
Again, that’s screaming March Madness. How many players in the country can go on that kind of personal run and carry their team?
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Finally, I’ll add on the “why” factor to this Wildcat team. Simply, the narrative has to change. Since their championship run in 2012, Kentucky has failed to bring another one back to Lexington. Year in and year out, Head Coach John Calipari brought in the best talent in the nation, yet failed to tack on another national championship.
Now, with the Calipari era over and nightmares of Saint Peters’ Doug Edert and Oakland’s Jack Gohlke behind them, Big Blue Nation (BBN) turns to Pope to rewrite the history books. Since he held his 1996 championship trophy high in front of BBN during his introduction at Rupp Arena, his passion for this school and his impact have followed his actions during every game, every press conference and at any local event.
Pope cares, he is a Wildcat, and you can tell by his demeanor that he wants another ring on his finger, this time, as a coach.
Is Kentucky a championship team yet? Not by any means. Will it compete with any team on any given night? You can bet your top dollar. Will “blueeeeee, whiteeeee” chants echo with passionate fans no matter how far from home? I guarantee it. The 2024-25 Wildcats are not a team you want to see in March.