Following the Wildcats’ 88-54 home win over the Brown Bears on Tuesday, Dec. 31, we had the chance to ask Coach Pope about the team’s particularly impressive 18:5 assist-to-turnover ratio in the matchup.

His answer outlines a path to success as the Cats move forward into conference play, saying, “Those numbers are really big… they’re just a manifestation of if we’re playing right on the offensive end.”

That night in particular, the positive ratio in that regard led to Kentucky shooting a striking 50% from the field, as well as 36% from downtown. But offense isn’t the only facet of the game to see an uptick.

“The turnover number is an indication of if we’re giving ourselves a chance, a real chance, to guard on the defensive end,” he continued.

Not only did Kentucky force a season-high 23 turnovers against the Bears, but their total 54 points was the lowest of any Kentucky opponent this season. Add five blocks into that mix and you’ve got a real recipe for success on defense.

“Those two numbers loom large for us, they’re really important, and if we can stay above a 3:1 as a team I’ll be elated. We’ll have a chance to win a lot of games.”

Looking back at the 13 games Kentucky has played thus far, that aforementioned 3:1 benchmark becomes especially prevalent.

In their lone two losses, against Clemson and Ohio State, Kentucky tallied only 11 assists in either against 12 and 10 turnovers, respectively. With a ratio that tight, the Cats struggle on both sides of the ball.

Now, what about when Kentucky does the opposite?

In equivalent, if not more treacherous matchups in comparison to their losses, Kentucky posted a 17:7 ratio in their crucial win over Gonzaga, 17:11 against Duke, and 23:11 versus Louisville.

While those aren’t quite 3:1, they do paint a positive outlook given the negative alternative when dishes and dumps are within only a few notches of one another on the stat sheet.

In the season-opener against Wright State, the Wildcats achieved a staggering 30:7 ratio in a 41-point win. In their 49-point rout over Jackson State just a few weeks later, they’d chart a 29:10 ratio. 2.9:1 is close enough for domination, it seems.

On the year as a whole, the team averages about 19 assists to nine turnovers.

In just about every game in the season so far, the assist-to-turnover ratio has been a solid indicator of the final results that follow. The statistic represents how well the team is responding to physicality on offense, as well as how effectively they apply it on defense.

The more extreme the chasm between the two, the better, but even if Kentucky doesn’t hit that golden 3:1 benchmark, they can still garner a demonstrable advantage over their opponent by taking care of the ball on one end, and sharing it on the other.

As the Wildcats begin play in what is arguably the grittiest conference in the country, keep an eye on that metric; it may very well determine where Kentucky ends up when the dust ultimately settles in the SEC.

With the Kentucky Wildcats ranked in the top 10 with an 11-2 record, including big wins over Duke and Gonzaga, it’s been a good start to the Mark Pope era as the non-conference slate comes to an end.

However, the most difficult is yet to come.

Entering conference play in an SEC that is being discussed as one of the strongest conferences in recent memory, Kentucky has one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country. 14 of their 18 conference games will be Quad I opportunities. Their first opponent will be the Florida Gators on Saturday.

Considered one of the best young coaches in the country, Todd Golden has led Florida to a 13-0 record, holding the nation’s longest active win streak and No. 5 national ranking in the Coaches Poll. However, the Gators have played just one top-50 KenPom team in a struggling North Carolina squad.

Is Kentucky ready for the physicality of the SEC? Is Florida for real? Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Pace and Defense

Kentucky and Florida both rank top 10 in field goal attempts and average just more than 15 seconds per possession. Meaning, this is going to be a fast-paced contest with a lot of shots.

Just like Kentucky, Florida prioritizes attacking in transition. The best way to stop that is by scoring. So, in a way, Kentucky’s best defense against Florida is their offense. That means efficient movement, on and off the ball, and good shot selection.

When getting into halfcourt defense, Kentucky needs to be prepared for a lot of ball screens, an area they have been focusing on since the loss to Ohio State. “All of our guys were struggling to remember if there was anything involved in the game of basketball except for ball screen defense. We repped and repped and repped,” Pope said after the Brown win.

Offensive Rebounding Battle

Florida is the best rebounding team in the country by average. Statistically, Kentucky is, too, but there have been times they have lacked effort on the boards, most recently in the first half against Brown.

With Florida, it’s not just one player; it’s a balanced attack, with six players averaging more than five rebounds per game. All five Kentucky players on the floor will need to make the effort to box out and not look to leak out early.

Florida really excels on the offensive glass, rebounding 41% of their misses. That said, they give up nearly 10 offensive rebounds to their opponent per game, an area where Mark Pope prioritizes every game.

If the Cats can be in the net-positive with offensive rebounds, it would be huge for their chances to win.

Free Throws

Statistically, Florida’s biggest weakness is its free-throw shooting, which is 73.4% compared to Kentucky’s 73.8%.

Similar to Kentucky, the Gators have been inconsistent from the charity stripe, shooting nearly 82% on 33 attempts in one game this season to shooting 56% on 25 attempts in another.

All projections expect this to be a close game and taking advantage of FREE throws will always help your chances to win.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Walter Clayton Jr 6-3, 195 lbs

• 17.2 PPG (10th in SEC)
• 3.8 APG
• 37% 3P

G Will Richard 6-4, 206 lbs

• 14.2 PPG
• 5.0 RPG
• 2.2 SPG (8th in SEC)

F Alex Condon

• 11.2 PPG
• 7.5 RPG (10th in SEC)
• 1.5 BPG (8th in SEC)

Kentucky Basketball (11-2) vs. Florida Gators (13-0)

Time: 11:00 AM ET on January 4th, 2024
Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: ESPN
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and ESPN network of channels (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | FLA
Stats to Know: UK | FLA
KenPom: UK | FLA
Team Sheet: UK | FLA

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 165.5. EvanMiya gives Kentucky a 43.9% chance of winning, Bart Torvik is at 54%, KenPom is at 47%, and ESPN is at 58.8%.

Predictions: EvanMiya has Florida winning 82-77. Bart Torvik has the Cats winning an 83-82 thriller. Haslametrics is going with an 84-78 Florida victory. KenPom has the Gators winning 82-81. I’ll give the home team the edge in this one and predict an 85-83 victory, Kentucky!

How do you see this one going? Send us your Kentucky vs. Florida score predictions in the comments section!

Go CATS!!

Mark Pope has provided an update on the status of Kerr Kriisa’s foot injury in his press conference on Thursday, Jan. 2.

“In my mind, he’s a game-time decision for Saturday, but sometimes I live in a little bit of a fantasy land.”

Fantasy or not, Kriisa’s return even being discussed ahead of Saturday’s home matchup against the sixth-ranked Florida Gators can be seen as a promising sign of his recovery for the Wildcats. The unit has sorely missed his presence in the backcourt since he went down in the second half of the Dec. 7 win against Gonzaga, for which he underwent surgery shortly after.

That said, Pope, even with his positive outlook, reiterates that this is a serious injury. “This is a major deal, it will take some time.”

Coach Pope spoke to this point, adding that his absence from the court has been “devastating.” Kriisa, who averages four points, four assists, and two rebounds off the bench, is known for a fiery spirit that impacts the team both on and off the court. He’s recently become known for his pregame speeches in the wake of his inability to play.

Kriisa has missed four games in a row. Going into conference play, the team hopes for him to be back to full health as soon as possible.

That SEC gauntlet is going to take all hands on deck, and then some. We wish Kerr a continued speedy recovery.