The Kentucky Wildcats started the new year and SEC play with an impressive road victory against the Florida Gators, against much adversity. On Tuesday, the Wildcats will return to action against the Missouri Tigers, who have gotten the best of Kentucky in two of the last three seasons. Given the comments from Missouri (both public and private), I would say this is one Kentucky’s staff will be motivated to win.
This year’s Missouri team lost eight players from last season’s roster, including their four top leading scorers. With an 8-6 record, the Tigers’ best win has come against (according to the NET rankings) Pittsburgh, who is ranked 195th in KenPom.
That said, Missouri shoots and makes a lot of threes, top three in the SEC in both categories this season, and any team in the SEC is capable of winning if you come in ill-prepared. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Perimeter Defense
It feels like opposing teams shoot an unreal percentage from three in Rupp Arena, but on the season opponents are shooting just 31.2 percent in Rupp for the year. This is right in line with the 31 percent they have allowed this season thus far, ranked 75th nationally.
That said, Missouri has attempted the second-most threes in the SEC this season and will hoist plenty more on Tuesday. With three guards all averaging double-figures and shooting 40%+ from three, including two shooting 50%+, the Wildcats need to close out on shooters.
Take Care of the Ball
Taking care of the ball is been a signature of this year’s Kentucky team, averaging just 9.4 per game and 14th nationally. However, to start the game against Florida, they had seven turnovers just in the first half.
Against Missouri, who often aggressively uses a 1-3-1 zone defense to create pressure and force mistakes, the Wildcats must make sound, but quick passes. The Wildcats have performed well against zone this season, so it will be interesting to see how often Missouri will turn to this.
Make Free Throws
Missouri’s defense isn’t great, but they don’t give up things easily, particularly at the rim. The Tigers rank top 10 nationally in blocks per game, but also fouls at the second-highest rate in the SEC behind Alabama.
Penetration being a key part of Kentucky’s offense, they will get chances to kick it back out for open looks, but also free throws. This has been one of Calipari’s better free throw shooting teams at Kentucky, shooting 73.4 percent. However, they did miss several 1-and-1’s against Florida.
Opposing Players to Watch
G Sean East II, 6-3, 180 lbs
- 17.1 PPG (5th in SEC)
- 3.9 APG (T-5th in SEC)
- 55.4% FG (3rd in SEC)
- 53.8% 3P (2nd in SEC)
G Tamar Bates, 6-5, 195 lbs
- 10.2 PPG
- 53.3% FG (4th in SEC)
- 53.1% 3P (3rd in SEC)
F Noah Carter, 6-6, 235 lbs
- Date: January 9th, 2024
- Time: 7:00 pm ET
- Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky.
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: To be announced (ESPN Press Room).
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
- Rosters: UK | MIZZ
- Stats to Know: UK | MIZZ
- KenPom: UK | MIZZ
- Odds: ESPN’s matchup predictor has a lot of confidence in the Cats, giving them an 88% chance at victory, which EvanMiya is also in agreement with. Bart Torvik has even more confidence in Kentucky, projecting a 91% shot at the win. Kentucky is currently 9-4 against the spread, while Florida is 4-10.
- Predictions: All the projections are within just a few points of each other. Bart Torvik and Haslametrics choose Kentucky 88-73 and 88-74, respectively. EvanMiya projects an 88-75 win for Kentucky and.
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