With the dust finally starting to settle on Mark Pope’s first year in the driver’s seat, Kentucky’s outlook for March Madness is beginning to take shape as Selection Sunday (March 16) closes in.

After entering the season ranked #23 in the AP poll, the ‘Cats have been in just about every possible position. From rising as far as #4 in week seven to dropping all the way back down to #19 (where they are currently), the team have been in-and-out of the “championship hopefuls” mix all season.

Big, trademark wins against teams like Duke, Tennessee (x2), Florida and Gonzaga had pundits singing the unit’s praises, while puzzling losses to Ohio State, Georgia, and Texas inspired the exact opposite sort of dialogue.

Though as confusing as the year has been on the whole, the overall consensus of the “bracketologists” seems see Kentucky between the 3-5 seed lines on that fateful day. Read below, and let us know what you make of Kentucky’s potential road to San Antonio!

Bracket Matrix: (3.21, last 3-seed)

*Combines all bracketology and averages each team’s seed.

24/7 Sports

Projection: East Region, five-seed.

Matchup: McNeese (12)

Notable teams in region: Duke (1), Alabama (2), Marquette (4), Kansas (6).

CBS Sports

Projection: Midwest Region, four-seed.

Matchup: Yale (13).

Notable teams in region: Houston (1), Tennessee (2), Wisconsin (3), Michigan (5), UCLA (8).

ESPN

Projection: South Region (Atlanta), three-seed.

Matchup: Troy (14).

Notable teams in region: Auburn (1), Michigan State (2), Clemson (4), UCLA (6).

NCAA.com

Projection: Midwest Region, four-seed.

Matchup: Akron (13).

Notable teams in region: Houston (1), Alabama (2), Wisconsin (3), Maryland (5).

Although the Wildcats were able to take a big, collective breath after Ole Miss secured them a first round bye in the SEC Tournament with a win over Tennessee, their final fate is far from decided.

As they currently stand, Kentucky is slated in the eight seed in the Southeastern Conference; just ahead of Mississippi State, and right behind Texas A&M. While UK (again, thanks to Ole Miss) is unable to fall any further than their current position no matter how their last game goes, there also exists the possibility for the ‘Cats to rise as high as seed five.

What’s more? Everything comes down to three games: Ole Miss vs. Florida, Texas A&M vs. LSU, and, of course, Kentucky vs. Missouri. Where the Wildcats end up will all depend on the mixed-and-matched outcome of these three battles.

“Worst” Case Scenario

The simplest, and objectively worst possible outcome (although maintaining a bye is still pretty sweet) would only require one game to end a certain way – that is, Kentucky falling to Mizzou. In that case, no matter how the other two games turned out, the ‘Cats would be officially locked into the eight seed in which they currently sit when things kick off in Nashville.

But if Kentucky beats Missouri? Things get a lot more interesting.

Middle Ground

Given a big blue victory on Saturday, these two scenarios feel like the most plausible and encouraging options on the spread. In addition to a Wildcats win, if A&M beats LSU (expected) and Ole Miss beats Florida (unexpected), Kentucky would rise one spot to the seventh seed.

Now, swap the Ole Miss game and give Florida the win, and suddenly, the ‘Cats rise to the sixth spot. Interestingly enough, this latter outcome seems inherently more likely than the former, given Florida’s home court advantage and LSU’s consistent in-conference struggles. Either way, these two options are firmly in reach; all Kentucky has to do to guarantee a better seed than the one they have now is win.

Wishful Thinking

In the best possible scenario, as wild as it may seem Kentucky could climb as far as the fifth seed in the SEC standings. What’s even wilder? It’s more possible than the projections may lead you to believe.

If Kentucky and Florida win (again, Florida is favored), it’d all come down to LSU finding a way to upset A&M. That seems like a pipe dream, especially after what Kentucky just did to the Tigers in Rupp, but the game takes place in Baton Rouge, and it’ll be the last one there this season.

Who knows? Maybe the seniors in purple and gold will work to play spoiler and sabotage one of the better teams in their conference; after all, late-season college basketball is known for stories like these. As unlikely as it seems, you’d be remiss to count anything out after the first day of March.

Blue Gets In

As nice as it would be to jump three spots in the conference standings headed into the tournament, Nashville will be a blue-out either way, and Kentucky will have the benefit of both a first round bye and the most fans in the building on any given night out.

To boot, the team’s coach finally takes the event as seriously as the fans who travel for it do. Mark Pope said in Thursday’s press conference, “this SEC Tournament matters.” So no matter where the Wildcats end up, rest assured that Coach Pope will have the team right where they need to be headed into the weekend.

Kentucky will look to make their first splash in the tournament in years ahead of what is sure to be a historic March… for better or, perish the thought, much worse.

The Kentucky Wildcats smashed LSU in dominant fashion in their home game of the season. Now, their attention turns towards their regular-season finale vs. the No. 15 Missouri Tigers in Columbia on Saturday. Game time is set for noon ET on ESPN.

One of the biggest surprise teams in college basketball, the Tigers are ranked fifth in the SEC and have one of the nation’s most potent offenses. Led by National Coach of the Year candidate Dennis Gates, in his third season, they have an overhauled roster from last season’s team that went winless in SEC play.

Since starting conference play 6-2, Missouri has been just 4-5 in the nine games since, including losses to Arkansas and Vanderbilt, albeit two teams Kentucky has lost to, and on the road.

Which version of Missouri will Kentucky be facing? The one that just to said teams and just got manhandled at Oklahoma? Or will it be the one that thoroughly dismantled Alabama just a few weeks ago?

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Rebounding

One of Kentucky’s biggest priorities this season has been rebounding, but they’ve been inconsistent in that area. After losing the rebounding battle in three straight games, the Wildcats have won in the two games since.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have been one of the worst rebounding teams in the SEC. It’s not due to a lack of size, with a roster that ranks in the top 50 in average height.

The Tigers have lost the battle of the boards in three straight contests: Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt — all statistically worse teams on the board than Kentucky.

The Cats must continue that trend and use rebounds to help control the game.

Avoid Turnover Bug

Missouri is not an elite defensive team, but they do create havoc and generate steals, ranking second in the nation with nearly 10 steals per game.

For Kentucky, taking care of the ball has been a challenge of late. Against LSU, the Cats had less than 12 turnovers for the first time in five games, but the Tiger defense wasn’t exactly stout.

Lamont Butler is leading the charge and continuing to get healthy, which helps with this. However, players like Travis Perry and Otega Oweh need to be prepared for the pressure of the Missouri backcourt, including Anthony Robinson and Caleb Grill, who both rank in the top 10 of the SEC in steals.

Defense Without Fouling

Kentucky has been better on the defensive end since mid-February but has still allowed big scoring numbers to elite offenses in that span, including 96 points to Alabama and 94 to Auburn.

According to KenPom, Missouri has the fifth most efficient offense in the country. A big part of that offense comes from the free-throw line. Drawing more than 20 fouls per game, the Tigers score nearly a quarter of their points from the charity stripe.

It will be very important for the Cats to defend without fouling. Not only will that take away a big source of points, but it will keep Kentucky’s best players out of foul trouble. That is important, given that the roster lacks consistent production from the bench.

Then again, this is dependent on SEC officiating. In three of Missouri’s last six games, they have shot 35 or more free throws. In the other three, they have shot 17 or less.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Caleb Grill 6-3, 205 lbs

• 14.3 PPG
• 1.8 SPG (9th in SEC)
• 43% 3P (3rd in SEC)

G Mark Mitchell 6-6, 230 lbs

• 13.9 PPG
• 4.7 RPG
• 49.4% FG

G Anthony Robinson 6-3, 180 lbs

• 9.7 PPG
• 3.6 APG (10th in SEC)
• 45.5% 3P
• 2.1 SPG (2nd in SEC)

Kentucky Basketball vs. Missouri Tigers

Time: 12:00 PM ET on March 8th, 2025
Location: Mizzou Arena in Columbia, Missouri
TV Channel: ESPN
Announcers: Tom Hart and Dane Bradshaw
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | MIZZ
Stats to Know: UK | MIZZ
KenPom: UK | MIZZ
Team Sheet: UK | MIZZ

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game, so check back Friday for those. ESPN has Kentucky as a small underdog with a 47.1% chance at victory, while EvanMiya gives the Cats just a 29.7% chance at the upset. KenPom (35%) and BartTorvik (30%) fall in between.

Predictions: BartTorvik (88-82), EvanMiya (86-80), and Haslametrics (86-80) all predict a six-point loss for Kentucky, while KenPom is going with Missouri 86-82. I think the Wildcats will get one more big win in the regular season, so I’m going with an 88-81 victory, Kentucky!

Send us your Kentucky vs. Missouri score predictions in the comments section!

Go CATS!

Also posted on A Sea of Blue.