The Kentucky Wildcats are entering a big week. After losing back-to-back games at home to Tennessee and Florida, at Rupp for just the eighth time since opening in 1976, the Cats have a get-right game against Vanderbilt Commodores, or what is expected to be.
Vanderbilt did beat Kentucky twice last season, including the first round of the SEC Tournament. However, they lost several key pieces and are much worse this season. Of their six wins, just two have come against teams ranked in the top 300 of the NET.
It is February and for Kentucky, this needs to be a game with little doubt, where they get out early and never look back. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Ball Screen and Driving Defense
Vanderbilt is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, 340th in fact. That said, a lot of their scoring comes off ball-screen offense and drives, highlighted by guards Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence, who really hurt the Cats last season. Manjon is Vanderbilt’s leading scorer, but when he drives he is just as dangerous as a passer and will look to take advantage when the defense is over-helping.
Of course, ball-screen defense and staying in front of a defender have been two of Kentucky’s biggest defensive weaknesses, among a plethora of them. Given just how bad of a shooting team Vanderbilt has been, Kentucky should feel confident in giving space to prevent penetration. Ball-screen defense is all about knowing your personnel and communication.
Hold Under 60 Points
Vanderbilt’s offense last season was their calling card, as they were close to an NCAA Tournament birth. This season, it’s far from it. Ranked 30th in offensive efficiency last season, the Commodores are 233rd this season, by far the worst of the SEC.
That said, Kentucky’s defense this season has been far from their calling card. Giving up 90+ in three straight home games, there is much to be desired. If the Wildcats want to put themselves back into the national title contender conversation they have to show improvement on that side of the ball.
After the Tennessee loss, Adou Thiero was asked about the defensive struggles, to which he responded, “We just got to find the fight in ourselves and stop letting teams come in and do whatever they want.”
They have a good opportunity to do so against an offensively deficient Vanderbilt team that averages just 66 points per game. If they give up more than that, it will lead to more worry.
Dominate the Boards
While Kentucky’s defense has been the biggest area of concern, it’s not the only one. Rob Dillingham cited rebounding as an area the team needs to grow more consistent at, himself included.
“I feel like we didn’t fight as hard as we could,” Dillingham said. “Not boxing out, letting them get second chance points, not rebounding the ball. It’s the little things. Either we want it or not.”
Vanderbilt has not rebounded well all season and, on paper, should have the size to compete with Kentucky on the boards. If Kentucky truly wants it, they will win the rebounding battle handily.
Opposing Players to Watch
G Ezra Manjon 6-0, 170 lbs
- 14.7 PPG (16th in SEC)
- 3.4 APG (14th in SEC)
G Tyrin Lawrence 6-4, 200 lbs
- 14.2 PPG (18th in SEC)
- 5.4 RPG
- Time: 8:30 PM EST on February 6th
- Location: Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville, Tennessee
- TV Channel: SEC Network
- Announcers: To be announced.
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
- Rosters: UK | VU
- Stats to Know: UK | VU
- KenPom: UK | VU
- Team Sheet: UK | VU
- Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook has Tennessee -1.5 and an over/under of 160. ESPN’s matchup predictor has Kentucky as a heavy favorite on the road, 87.2%. Other projections are in agreement, all giving Kentucky an 80%+ chance of winning: EvanMiya at 83.2% of, Bart Torvik at 83%, DRatings is at 84.8%, and KenPom at 84%.
- Predictions: The score projections are all taking Kentucky to win by double-digits. Bart Torvik and Haslametrics have the Cats winning 82-71. EvanMiya went with an 80-70 win for Kentucky. KenPom is 82-72.
- Also published on A Sea of Blue.
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