What a win on Saturday for the Kentucky Wildcats, who put up one of the best offensive performances in college basketball this season on Saturday in a 117-95 win over Alabama. Now they will go back on the road to take on a Mississippi State team in a quad-one opportunity.
With Kentucky coming out on top in the first matchup, back in January, Mississippi State will look to even the season series and defend their home court on Tuesday. The Bulldogs are playing some of their best basketball of the season, riding a five-game winning streak, including a twenty-point road victory over LSU, whom Kentucky just lost to.
Let’s look at the matchup.
Interior Defense
Tolu Smith is arguably the best big man in the SEC. In the first matchup between these two teams, he certainly made his presence felt despite the loss, scoring a season-high 26 points on better than 70 percent shooting.
This time around will be a good test to see how an improved Kentucky defense handles a physical interior player. While improving and reportedly back at practice, Tre Mitchell is unlikely to play on Tuesday, so it will be up to the seven-footers.
Ugonna Onyenso is Kentucky’s most physical big, but Zvonimir Ivisic who just scored a season-high 18 points, gives Kentucky a higher offensive ceiling.
Rebounding Battle
Similar to the stereotypical SEC team, Mississippi State is a physical team that does well on the boards, ranking toward the top of the country in total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and rebound margin. In the first matchup, Kentucky outrebounded the Bulldogs 30-29, that effort will need to be there again Tuesday.
Josh Hubbard
Mississippi State’s equivalent to Rob Dillingham is Josh Hubbard. The sub-six-foot electric guard is a similar microwave-type player who just won his fifth SEC Freshman of the Week honor this season after scoring 32 points against LSU.
Scoring just three points on 1-11 shooting against Kentucky back in January, Hubbard is motivated to have a better performance. The priority in defending Hubbard is chasing him off the three-point line or pushing him back as more than 64 percent of his shots have been taken from deep. Similar to what Kentucky did to Alabama, make him finish at the rim.
Opposing Players to Watch
F Tolu Smith 6-11, 245 lbs
- 16.8 PPG (9th in SEC)
- 8.1 RPG (3rd in SEC)
- 59.7% FG (1st in SEC)
G Josh Hubbard 5-10, 185 lbs
- 15.3 PPG (10th in SEC)
- 76 3PM (1st in SEC)
- 7.9 3PA per game
G Dashawn Davis 6-1, 190 lbs
- 6.2 PPG
- 3.0 APG (17th in SEC)
- Time: 7 PM ET on February 27th
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: To be announced.
- Location: Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Mississippi.
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and ESPN app
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
- Rosters: UK | MISS ST
- Stats to Know: UK | MISS ST
- KenPom: UK | MISS ST
- Team Sheets: UK | MISS ST
- Odds: The odds for the game have yet to be released, but check out SportsBetExpert for your picks. Despite a convincing win over Alabama, the projections are not in Kentucky’s favor. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Cats just a 40.9% chance at victory, with Bart Torvik right in line at 41%. EvanMiya and KenPom give Kentucky a slightly higher chance at the win, at 46% and 45% respectively.
- Predictions: The projections have the game coming down to the wire. Bart Torvik and KenPom have Mississippi State winning by two points, 80-78 and 79-77. Haslametrics and EvanMiya have the Cats winning by just one point, 77-76.
Also published on A Sea of Blue.
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