Riding a three-game win streak, their longest of 2024, the Kentucky Wildcats will play their final home game on Wednesday against Vanderbilt. The Commodores played spoil to Kentucky’s senior night last year, but with a weaker team this season that doesn’t seem very likely.
Since playing Kentucky in Nashville, back in January, the Commodores are just 2-5. Their two wins have come by a combined four points, over two of the most disappointing teams in the SEC, Arkansas and Texas A&M. Fan discontent with head coach Jerry Stackhouse continues to grow, despite his reported $14 million buyout.
Kentucky, on senior night, against one of the worst teams in the SEC, should get an easy win. That said, let’s take a look at the matchup.
Three Point Advantage
To put it simply, Vanderbilt is not a good shooting team. In fact, they are in the bottom ten in the country in three-point percentage at just 28.1 percent. Meaning, that Kentucky needs to prioritize staying between their man and the basket, as Ezra Manjon and Tyrin Lawrence will look to attack the paint. Rim protection will be key here as well.
As bad as Vanderbilt is at shooting threes, they are just as bad as allowing threes, allowing their opponents to shoot 37.5 percent. In comparison, Kentucky is first in the country in three-point percentage at 40.8 percent.
As John Calipari has said of his team multiple times this season, “We shoot it so well, that should be our advantage.”
Transition
In their first matchup earlier this season, Kentucky never trailed Vanderbilt. A big reason for that is pushing the ball and capitalizing on early transition chances. For the game, they had 30 fastbreak points.
The game plan will likely be similar this go around, looking to force the Commodores into difficult shots, using defense rebounds and outlet passes to get some easy looks. I would expect the Wildcats to use a little bit of pressure at times as well, just as they did back in January. Making Manjon and Lawrence uncomfortable and lean into making some mental mistakes, combining for seven turnovers last time.
Gain Confidence
The Wildcats have just two games remaining on the schedule. With a highly anticipated showdown against Tennessee in Knoxville on Saturday, Vanderbilt provides a good opportunity for Kentucky to gain some confidence beforehand, if they can take advantage.
Individually, Tre Mitchell returned in Kentucky’s last game against Arkansas, but struggled. This could be a good opportunity to give him some extended minutes to help him regain some comfort. It could be a similar opportunity for Aaron Bradshaw, whose play has improved as late, or even Jordan Burks, who recorded a career-high against Vanderbilt on the road.
G Ezra Manjon 6-0, 170 lbs
- 14.3 PPG (16th in SEC)
- 3.6 APG (11th in SEC)
G Tyrin Lawrence 6-4, 200 lbs
- 13.7 PPG (18th in SEC)
- 4.8 RPG
- Time: 9:00 PM EST
- Date: March 6th, 2024
- Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, KY.
- TV Channel: SEC Network
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
- Rosters: UK | VU
- Stats to Know: UK | VU
- KenPom: UK | VU
- Team Sheet: UK | VU
- Odds: No DraftKings spread just yet, so check back Tuesday evening. ESPN’s matchup predictor has Kentucky as a near lock, giving them a 98.1% chance of victory. KenPom is the next most confident in the Wildcats at 97%. Followed by EvanMiya at 96.6%, and BartTorvik at 96%
- Predictions: With such a high percent chance of victory, it is no surprise that the score projections expect a 20-point margin in Kentucky’s favor. Haslametrics has the Cats winning 90-68. Followed by Bart Torvik, 91-70, and KenPom, 89-69. EvanMiya is going with an 88-69 win in Kentucky’s final home game.
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