Coming into the SEC Tournament Alabama was firmly on the bubble and listed as one of the “first teams out” by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.
Last night, after trailing by as many as 16 points in the second half against Ole Miss, the Crimson Tide fought back to win 62-57. The win placed Alabama as the “first team out”. A win on Friday would certainly lock up a NCAA bid and I expect Alabama to come out with that urgency.
Alabama head coach Avery Johnson is 0-3 against Kentucky in the SEC Tournament, compared to a 6-0 record against the rest of the SEC. However, Kentucky is the King of the SEC tournament and will certainly be motivated to avenge a loss to Alabama back in January.
Lets take a look at the Cats’ points of emphasis for tonight’s game.
Reid Travis
HE IS BACK.
After missing nearly a month with a sprained right knee, Reid Travis will be in uniform and ready to play against Alabama.
John Calipari had said earlier in the week that if Travis were to play in the SEC Tournament, he would off the bench and see limited minutes on the court. However, when it was reported Thursday night that Travis was cleared to play, Calipari backed off those comments saying, “I don’t know. We’ll let him see. He’s farther along than I thought.”
Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery may even be more effective against the length and athleticism of Alabama. However, Reid will be another big man that can bang inside with Crimson Tide big Donta Hall. Whether Reid plays significant minutes or not it will be good to see him on the floor and getting his game feet under him.
Perimeter Defense
At the beginning of the season one of the most glaring weaknesses of this Kentucky team was it’s poor perimeter defense, even allowing an 11-21 VMI team to shoot 50% (19-38) from three.
As the season has gone on, Kentucky has turned perimeter defense from a weakness to a strength and have held opponents to 29.3 in the last three games.
In January’s match-up, the Crimson Tide were able to shoot a 43.5% (10-23) from three, including 6-8 from junior guard Tevin Mack. The performance ranks as Alabama’s third-best three point shooting game of the season.
That game was an outlier as Alabama has not shot great from outside this season, ranking as the 201st in season 3P percentage. However, just like in January they have shown they can get streaky and shoot a high clip from three, the Cats will need to extend out and contest.
Rebounding and Toughness
Alabama out rebounded Ole Miss 50-30 for 22 second chance points on Thursday. In January, Alabama out-rebounded Kentucky 40-32 just due to effort and scored 32 points in the paint.
Since that game Kentucky has grown up and is a much better team. This team has shown just how physical and gritty they can be on the biggest stage. This season, Kentucky has out-rebounded a North Carolina team that ranks No. 1 in the country in rebounds per game and out-toughed a very physical Tennessee team.
Kentucky has done it all season but they need to dominate the boards and limit Alabama’s second chance opportunities. If the Cats are able to do that, it should be a fun night.
Prediction
With Reid Travis returning and the Cats having not played for a nearly a week, I think the Cats will come out and assert their dominance from the start. However, if they don’t and the Tide come out with more effort, they are more than capable of making this a ballgame.
Kentucky: 72
Alabama: 59
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