Kentucky is coming off I believe one of their two best performances (both coming in the last 9 days) with an 80-53 thumping of Auburn. In their first game without Travis Reid, the Cats shot astoundingly well form three hitting their 2nd most in a game this season, and absolutely dominating the Tigers on the boards.
Arkansas is coming into Rupp on Tuesday on a 5 game losing streak. Arkansas currently sits at 10th place in the SEC with a 14-13 (5-9 SEC) record. ESPN’s power index is giving Kentucky a 95.6% chance to win however, Arkansas was at one point in the hunt for an NCAA tournament bid and has an All-SEC first team player in Daniel Gafford. Let’s take a closer look at the matchup.
Daniel Gafford
The 6-11 sophomore forward is playing like an All-SEC First Team player this year. As a freshman, Gafford received SEC All-Freshman honors on 11.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg, and 60.5% FG. This year Gafford has increased his production and is averaging a near double-double with 16.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 2.0 bpg, and 66.3% FG.
Gafford is the biggest part of the Razorback team as their leading scorer, an elite rim protector, and collecting nearly 25% of the team’s rebounds. Getting Gafford in foul trouble or wearing him out in the post will pretty much guarantee a Kentucky win on Tuesday.
Rebounding
Kentucky has been a beast on the glass this season and that doesn’t need to change on Tuesday night. The Razorbacks are not a great rebounding team as their second-leading rebounder is a guard, Mason Jones. However, Daniel Gafford is the leading rebounder in the SEC at 8.9 per game and keeping him off the glass will be key in completely shutting out Arkansas.
Force Turnovers
Arkansas is one of the worst teams in the SEC at turning the ball over with an average of 13.8 per game. Gafford averages 2.7 turnovers with the rest coming from the Razorback guards. Kentucky’s defense should be able to pressure the Razorbacks and force plenty of turnovers. Ashton Hagans should be able to add to his steal total with quite a few steals in this game.
Let PJ Get His
It is no secret that PJ Washington is playing as well and as dominant as anyone in the country at the moment. Arkansas doesn’t really have anyone to matchup against PJ. With his historically great shooting season, he is capable of pulling Gafford out of the paint and giving others inside opportunities or driving right by him. If PJ were to get matched up with Arkansas’ other starting forward, 6-6 Adrio Bailey, PJ should have a field day in the post. PJ will likely see a mixture of both but I expect PJ to exploit them and to dominate as he has since the start of SEC play.
Give Nick and EJ Some Confidence
Arkansas is ranked 66th in the KenPom rankings and on paper, this should be the easiest game left on Kentucky’s regular season schedule. Outside of Gafford, Arkansas doesn’t have a good defensive quality big man and will be matched up with PJ a lot. With Reid out it is important to get Richards and Montgomery involved and give them the chance to play well and gain some confidence before tournament play.
Take Care of the Ball
One of the few areas that Arkansas does excel in is getting steals. Arkansas is top 25 in the country at stealing the ball with 8.9 per game. The Razorbacks don’t have a single player that is considered a “pickpocket” but they are able to get into passing lanes. Kentucky will need to execute and throw strong and smart passes (please improve on entry passes).
Prediction
Arkansas has had one quality win all year, with a 90-89 win at LSU. The Razorbacks are a terrible shooting team in all areas shooting 44.5% FG, 66.2% FT, and 32.4% 3P. With the way the Cats are playing they shouldn’t have much trouble and should be able to get another comfortable win at Rupp and Cal one win closer to no. 300.
Kentucky-73 Arkansas-48
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