On Saturday, for the second time this season, the Cats will face off against the Auburn Tigers who have one of the most efficient offenses in the country. This will be Kentucky’s first game without senior Reid Travis and will be interesting to see the adjustment the Cats have to make.
Auburn, who was ranked as high as 7th earlier this season has really fallen off since the start of SEC play. The Tigers are now 18-8 (7-6 SEC) on the season and are 6th in the SEC standings. Kentucky won 82-80 in a close game at Auburn last month. However, Auburn is still a tournament team that has a top-15 offense and top-30 defense and with an afternoon tip and Travis Reid out, they have all the tools to beat the Cats at Rupp. Let’s take a look at what Kentucky needs to focus on to be successful.
Guard the Perimeter
Auburn gets most of their points from the three-point line. The Tigers shoot an average of 29.4 three-pointers per game, which is the sixth highest rate in the country. They don’t just shoot them, Auburn makes them too with a top-20 three-point percentage at 38.5%. With 7 players (playing meaningful minutes) shooting over 30%, Auburn is the best shooting team that the Cats have played this year and will play until the NCAA tournament.
Auburn’s ability to shoot the three was on full display when they faced the Cats last month as they erased Kentucky’s 18-point lead in a matter of minutes and gave themselves a chance to win at the end. The good thing is that Auburn doesn’t shoot as well on the road, but on the other hand we have seen just how well opponents shoot at Rupp.
Take Care of the Ball
This year Auburn has been a pest and have forced opponents into committing turnovers on 25.9 percent of all possessions this year, the highest rate in the NCAA. In January’s matchup, Kentucky was able to take decent care of the ball with 13 turnovers but allowed 15 fast break points, all off of turnovers. It will be key for Kentucky to limit turnovers and get back in transition.
Convert from the Free Throw Line
Auburn fouls at an alarming rate, ranked as the 2nd worst in the SEC and 262nd in the country, their opponents average 20.7 free throw attempts. Kentucky was able to take advantage of this in their last matchup going 24-33 (72.7) at the line. This is the best free throw shooting team under Calipari and with the game at Rupp, Kentucky should be able to capitalize on their opportunities.
Matchups
This game won’t be like round 1 against Auburn, with Travis Reid out and their big Austin Wiley being healthy. In January, the Cats didn’t have to deal with the athletic big and that allowed for Kentucky’s frontcourt to pretty much dominate Auburn. The Cats could benefit from Reid’s absence in this game by allowing the more athletic EJ Montgomery and Nick Richards to go up against Wiley.
This will be a game decided by the guards. Auburn guards Bryce Brown (28 points last time against UK) and Jared Harper both average over 15 points and shoot 39.3% and 41.3% from three as high-volume shooters. Ashton Hagans, Immanuel Quickley, Tyler Herro, and Jemarl Baker will have to be great defensively and be able to punch back offensively. Whichever team has the best performance from their guards will give themselves a great chance to win.
Prediction
This game will ultimately come down to how well Auburn shoots from outside and Kentucky’s perimeter defense. The Tigers are coming off a 79-56 win over Arkansas where Auburn shot 51.5% from three on 17/33 shooting. I expect the Cats to win but there will be a lot of unpredictability with Reid out.
Kentucky-78 Auburn-71
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