After an embarrassing 86-69 loss to Kentucky nearly two weeks ago, expect Tennessee to come out in Knoxville with their best effort to avenge that loss. Knoxville has not been very kind to the Cats and especially Calipari, under Cal Kentucky is 4-5 at Tennessee and this is one of the best basketball teams Tennessee has ever had.
Coming into Saturday, Kentucky (24-4, 13-2) and Tennessee (25-3, 13-2) are in a three-way tie with LSU for the SEC title. Saturday’s match-up will decide who will solely take second place, or even with an LSU loss, jump up to first. Let’s see what the Wildcats need to do to be successful on Saturday.
Physicality
Kentucky absolutely outtoughed and outphysicaled Tennessee in the first matchup. Reid Travis and PJ Washington bullied everyone in the post were able to get anything they wanted as Kentucky outscored the Volunteers 36-20 in the paint. With Kentucky’s paint attack they are able to draw a lot of fouls and rank top-25 in free throw attempts per game. In the first matchup, Kentucky’s big men were able to draw at least 3 fouls on each of their starters, which gave the Cats 33 free throw opportunities. On Saturday, the Cats will need to be just as physical and make a statement from the tip.
A New Dimension
It’s no secret
that Reid Travis is “doubtful” for Saturday’s game, but it might not be a bad
thing. In round 1, Travis played great and was able to provide scoring, rebounding,
and defense. While some of Reid’s intangibles and production will be missed, EJ
Montgomery and Nick Richards can provide a new element to this Kentucky team
with their length and rim protection.
As a starter in the two games against Tennessee last season, Richards averaged 7 points, 8 rebounds, and 1 block on 75% FG. In his only game against the Vols, Montgomery finished with 6 points (3-3) and 4 rebounds. Combined, they should be able to contribute the 11 points, 8 rebounds, 2 blocks that Travis recorded earlier this season against the Vols.
Guard The Perimeter
Just as the first game, Kentucky will need to get out to Tennessee’s perimeter shooters. On the season, Tennessee is shooting around 37% from three as a team, with many coming off transition.
Kentucky held to Tennessee to 28% (7-25) 3P in the first matchup.
Keep PJ Out of Foul Trouble
Grant Williams might
flop more than anyone in the country, but he is able to draw a lot of fouls. In
the first matchup, Reid was able to contain Williams and take pressure off of
PJ Washington. With Reid out, PJ will be matched up with Williams for a majority
of the game and puts him at risk of foul trouble.
Nick and EJ will need to help contain Williams for periods of the game, which could be a positive as he has shown struggles against length at times this season. PJ has a mental advantage over Williams but in order to assert his dominance, PJ will need to be intelligent enough not to commit bad fouls.
Prediction
While I wasn’t
expecting a blowout, I was fairly confident in Kentucky’s chances the first
time around. Reid Travis was built for a game like Saturday, but even with him
out I still feel confident. It will be a battle and a crazy atmosphere, but this
Tennessee team was at one point down double digits in each matchup against a less
talented Kentucky team last season. While Tennessee improved from last season, Kentucky
is just more talented and is peaking at the right time.
Kentucky-77
Tennessee- 72
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