Kentucky didn’t miss PJ Washington too much on Thursday, as they beat up on the Abilene Christian Wildcats and won 79-44, and will take on the Wofford Terriers in the Round of 32 after the Terriers went on 17-0 in the final four minutes to close out Seton Hall.
The Terriers are riding the longest active winning streak in the country at 21 wins and are in the middle of the best season in their 24 season history and will give Kentucky their best shot on Saturday.
Lets take a look at the sharpshooting Terriers and what Kentucky needs to do be successful.
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Defend the Three and Fletcher Magee (I am aware it rhymes)
If you have watched the slightest bit of college basketball this season, this should be a given.
Wofford is the second best three-point shooting team in the country, ranking second in three-pointers made (377) and three-point percentage (41.8% 3P). The three-point shot is the only
The star of the Terriers, Fletcher Magee will come into Saturday as the NCAA Division 1 all time leader in three pointers made with (505). This season, 74% of Magee’s shots have come from the perimeter and he is shooting more accurate than Steph Curry’s senior season with more attempts.
Steph Curry 2008-09: 38.7% 3P, 130-336
Fletcher Magee 2018-19: 43.3% 3P, 158-365
Kentucky will have to guard the perimeter more than any other game this season and that is something they have struggled with at times this season, especially early. However, the Cat’s have improve their perimeter defense from the start of SEC play.
The Cats will have to go against Cal’s philosophy to double team on the drive in order to prevent open outside looks. It’s simple math, giving up a layup is better than a wide open three.
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Take Advantage of Offensive Opportunities
Kentucky is bigger, stronger, faster, and overall more superior at absolutely every position on the court. While Wofford is an elite shooting, they are not so hot on the defensive end.
The Terriers have played five games against NCAA tournament teams this season, and have allowed 70 or more points in all of them.
With Kentucky’s superiority, we should see the frontcourt have one of their biggest games of the season. With that mindset, it would be a big help if the Cats are able to draw fouls on the Wofford starters. Simply, there should be no excuse to settle for outside shots.
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However, if Wofford shoots 40% or higher from three Kentucky will have to answer. With only three players shooting over 35% from three (Herro, Johnson, Quickley), that could be an issue.
John Calipari has told us all that this is the best shooting team he has had at Kentucky. While that may appear to be true on paper, it hasn’t been proven to be true on the court. Saturday would be a great day to show it, and a big opportunity for Jemarl Baker.
Stay out of Foul Trouble
There are usually two main factors in an NCAA tournament upset, great shooting and opponent foul trouble.
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The Terriers are going to pump fake and drive it inside to draw fouls any chance they get, in an effort to try to put Kentucky’s starters on the bench and try to “level out” the playing field. Kentucky has broken the “don’t foul a jumpshooter” amendment so many times this season, and they will have to show discipline on Saturday.
Scott Padgett on if Kentucky should be Worried
Scott Padgett, a key player of the 1998 Kentucky championship
team, is now the head coach of Samford. As a member of the Southern Conference,
Samford has faced off against Wofford Twice this season, giving Padgett some firsthand
insight.
Rick Bozich of WDRB, asked Padgett if the Cats should be worried
of the Terriers and had this to say:
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“Yes”
“Now, let me say that if Kentucky comes out and respects Wofford as a team, takes it seriously and doesn’t look at their name and think they’re some mid-major they’re just going to roll, Kentucky should win the game. If they treat it the way the way coach (John) Calipari will tell them to treat it, they’ll be fine.
“But if they just show up, this isn’t some team they’re just going to roll. They’ve prepared and scheduled for this opportunity for several years. Wofford is a damn good team.”
Prediction
The Terriers only hope this weekend is to catch fire from three, but they are more than capable of doing that and showed it in the first round hitting 46.4% of their 28 attempts against Seton Hall. All four of the Terriers’ losses are considered be quadrant 1 losses, three of them coming against teams Kentucky has beaten: North Carolina, Mississippi St., and Kansas.
Even without PJ Washington, the Wildcats have the talent and tools necessary to win. It will be harder but but I expect that Cats to win with their talent and athleticism.
Any version of Lamont Butler on the court is better than none at all, but the starting senior guard, despite returning to play from his shoulder injury, has confirmed that he still isn’t quite around full strength.
It’s been nearly two months now since Butler first went down the ailment in a home win over Texas A&M on Jan. 14. Since then, Butler has played in intermittent stretches, stopping and sitting for various injury-related reasons and, unfortunately, forcing the ‘Cats to adapt in his absence.
Staying the Course
It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing, with Kentucky faring 5-7 in their last 12 games, but the team has still managed to win enough to stay afloat on the season as a whole, maintaining an outlook for a top four seed come selection Sunday according to bracket guru Joe Lunardi.
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Though in the end, even considering the team’s recent relative success, Lamont Butler being active and suited up appears crucial to Kentucky’s chances to make a tournament run later this month. Not only is the team still out their original backup point guard in Kerr Kriisa, but with an average spread of 12 points, three rebounds and five dimes per game, Butler has proven invaluable to the Wildcats’ success against higher-ranking opponents.
And it goes without saying that Butler’s prior, game-winning experience in March, when he spurred San Diego State to a championship run just two years ago, will go a long way when things inevitably come down to the wire in a do-or-die tournament game. Time is running out, and even if “PG1” is capped at “85-90%”, as he said, it’s still better than having him dressed down at 0%.
Butler will continue to progress towards full health as he and Kentucky continue to ramp up to the NCAA Tournament. Their next bout, and his last at Rupp, comes tomorrow night against the 14-15 LSU Tigers. You can catch the game at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN (assuming the game before it doesn’t run an hour over).
A loss at Rupp Arena will never go down easy, regardless of context. But one in blowout fashion to a team that hasn’t left Lexington with a win in nearly three decades? That’s a harder pill to swallow than most.
Granted, Bruce Pearl’s Auburn Tigers have only dropped two games on the season so far, and they have the #1 national ranking to show for it. Few will dispute the notion that they’re the best team in college basketball right now.
But with a final score of 94-78 and with only four made three-pointers on 17 attempts, the Wildcats looked like they’d lost their identity this past Saturday – and the worst time to do so is just two weeks before the NCAA Tournament puts the madness in March.
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Hope in Pope
Though, perhaps in anticipated fashion, Mark Pope isn’t done with this group yet. “We have a really good team, and we have beautiful kids we’re cheering for, and we’re 4-3 right now against the top five ranked teams in the country. We have a winning record against top-five ranked teams, and we have great stuff here coming up…” he said after the loss.
“This team is going to come back with a vengeance on Tuesday night (against LSU), then we’re going to go play an incredibly difficult, challenging road game to finish conference season, and then we’re moving on to the SEC Tournament. We’re going to Nashville, and it’s going to be fireworks of epic proportions.”
“We’ve got a really good team, and we’ve got good stuff ahead.”
“Good stuff ahead”, or, in other words, “job not finished.” At this point, all that’s left ahead is the road to San Antonio, where the 2025 Final Four will take place. In spite of persistent injury issues and a general lack of consensus and consistency, this Kentucky team is still projected to land on the 3/4 seed line in the tournament. As dim as it all may seem right now, this is a Kentucky team with a lot of fight left.
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Tough Talks
“The one thing about a locker room is it is a place of truth, and you can’t move on unless you face the truth,” Pope added. “”We are in the process of having hard conversations.”
What is the truth for this Kentucky team? The stats suggest many things, but chief among them is their ability to win when it matters. Healthy or hobbled, home or away; every time these ‘Cats have been faced with a must-win, they make it happen.
It doesn’t hurt that Pope plans to burn the suit he wore in the Auburn game, too. There’s no room for any more bad luck on the road to a title run. He and Kentucky will close out the season with a home battle with the 14-15 LSU Tigers, followed by a road trip to Missouri to take on the their set band of Tigers in three games.
Once again, it’s eat or be eaten. Only time will tell how the vengeful Wildcats will respond.
Kentucky head coach Mark Pope spoke to the media following Auburn’s blowout victory against the Wildcats.
During the postgame press conference, the Kentucky coach took responsibility for the loss. Pope stated, “I failed to lead our team today to have the energy required for us to come out and be great.”
Despite dealing with injury challenges, Pope did not use that as an excuse. Instead, he pointed to a “cocktail” of issues that contributed to Kentucky’s sloppy performance.
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“Some energy miscues. Some being sped up miscus. Some terrific shot-making from Auburn. It all put together resulted in a really, really terrible day for us.”
Pace of Play
Earlier in the season, Pope wanted Kentucky to average 30 to 35 three-point attempts per game. However, against Auburn, the Wildcats managed to hit just four. Pope emphasized how the pace of play impacted the team, especially in this matchup. “We just gave up on the pace game and the full court,” he said. The lack of tempo disrupted Kentucky’s offense, leading to a slew of turnovers.
Reaching that 30+ attempt mark will be a challenge without star Jaxson Robinson, who accounted for a significant portion of the team’s three-point shots and scoring. To fill the gap, Kentucky will have to rely on freshmen stepping up as they push for a strong run in March.
The Wildcats will look to bounce back on Senior Night when they face LSU on Tuesday at 7 p.m. EST. They will also go up against former Wildcat Damion Collins, who will aim for a strong performance despite LSU’s struggles this season.