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Takeaways from Kentucky's Dominant Statement Win over #1 Tennessee

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I was confident in Kentucky’s chances against Tennessee and they won by 17. A big factor being Tennessee not playing a ranked team since Dec 10th. Since Tennessee’s win over Gonzaga that day, Vols have zero KenPom top-25 wins, Cats now have seven in that same span (including UT). Let’s take a look and analyze Kentucky’s statement win over the #1 team in the country.

PJ Washington has a shot at SEC Player of the Year

Anyone watching the game could see that PJ Washington was the best player on the floor and exposed Grant Williams who was pegged preseason SEC player of the year. In 7 of the last 8 games, Washington has scored 20 or more points and is averaging 21.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, and 1.3 bpg on 55.4% FG and 50% 3P. PJ Washington’s recent performances are proof that he made the best decision to come back for his sophomore year. PJ is playing like one of the best bigs in the country and his performance against #1 Tennessee definitely improved his case for national awards.

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This is NOT the Typical Calipari Team

Coming into the season and we knew this was a team that had a chance to be special and they showed that on the biggest stage against the #1 team in the country. Most Cal teams are stereotyped as “young and soft”. However, this team has experienced bigs that were not afraid of Tennessee’s physicality. From the tip, Kentucky was prepared to bully Tennessee and did just that outrebounding Tennessee by 13.

Ashton Hagans Broke Through the Freshman Wall

Calipari has talked about the metaphorical Freshman wall that many freshmen at Kentucky hit during the season. Hagans appeared to hit that wall three games ago as he was averaging 4.7 ppg, 4.7 apg, 1.7 rpg, and 3 TOpg along with 38.5% FG and 20% 3P. Hagans regained his aggressiveness against Tennessee with a 9 pts, 7 ast, 2 reb, 1 TO, and 50% FG performance. For this team to reach its peak performance, Hagans needs to be a leader that can defend the perimeter and is aggressive and efficient on the offensive end, and that’s just what Hagans was last night.

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Tyler Herro Showcases He Is More Than a Shooter

Coming into the season we anticipated Tyler Herro to be one of the premier shooters on this years team. While that has been the case (35.5% 3P, 45.5% FG, 91.8% FT) he has shown that he is much more than a shooter. Herro is second on the team in assists and steals with 2.3 apg and 1.0 spg, showing that he is able to distribute the ball and although not amazingly quick, he has the ability to get into passing lanes. As a 6-5 guard he rebounds and gets after it on the boards, averaging 4.0 rpg on the season, Herro finished the game with a quiet double-double with 15 pts and 13 reb.

This Team Still Has Room to Grow

Although more experienced than most Kentucky teams under Calipari, this team is still young with five freshmen (six if you count Baker as a redshirt freshman). Since losing to Duke by 34 points on opening night, Kentucky has clawed their way back into the national championship conversation, and deservingly so. Kentucky is currently ranked 14th in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency (only 6 teams ranked in top-20 in each category). Kentucky looked very impressive and received positive contributions from each player. However, Kentucky still showed room for improvement when allowing Tennessee to go on a 13-0 run in 2 1/2 min to cut the lead to 10 as they made plenty of mental mistakes and showed a struggle with the zone. Trust in Cal as he always has his best product on the floor come March!

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Team Stats

Box Score

Beating the #1 team in the country by 17 points, it has been a great weekend for the Big Blue Nation. GO C-A-Y-T-S!

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Men's Basketball

Can Kentucky Take Down Tennessee for the Third Time This Season? Here is What History Says

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Kentucky Wildcats guard Koby Brea (4) shoots the ball over Tennessee Volunteers.
Jordan Prather | IMAGN

The Kentucky Wildcats will face-off with the Tennessee Volunteers for the third time this season in the Sweet Sixteen, where Kentucky won each of the first two matchups. 

Head Coach Mark Pope and the heart-filled ‘Cats will look to beat Tennessee for the third time in a single season for the first time since 2005.

While previewing the game, Pope had nothing but nice things to say about the rival Volunteers. 

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“If we really parse details, there’s certainly the emotional advantage of winning two that you feel like you know you can,” said Pope. “This is a great Tennessee team. It’s one of the top teams in the country. It’s the best defensive team in the country.” 

Pope, frankly, is right. The No. 2 seed rivals allow only 62.9 points per game, ranking eighth in the nation and hold one of the best defensive efficiency ratings in the nation. 

Although these stats haven’t really translated against the Wildcats this season, when it’s March, everything goes out of the door. 

It’s hard to beat a team three times. We know it, and legends have admitted it.

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North Carolina vs. Duke (2024-25) 

North Carolina’s Dean Smith wrote in his memoir that “It was extremely hard to beat a good team three times in a row.” Look at his Tar Heels recently, who faced off against the Duke Blue Devils three times this season. Duke, by a landslide, was the better team all year, hinting at why the Cooper Flagg led team is still dancing.

Duke beat the Tar Heels by double-digit points in both of the regular season matchups, but in the ACC Tournament, no matter what the skill gap was, North Carolina outscored Duke 47-29 in the second half and would only lose by three points. 

When comparing a team who had lost only three games to one who had lost 13, you would think the score would be a landslide again. However, it’s hard to beat a team three times. 

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Kentucky vs Auburn (2018-19) 

The Wildcats have experienced this downfall first hand in their last trip to the Elite Eight, where the No. 5 seed Auburn Tigers defeated them 77-71 in a heartbreaker. 

Kentucky had defeated the Tigers on the road 82-80 on Jan. 19 that year and would go on to blow them out by 27 points inside of Rupp Arena on Feb. 23.

Tyler Herro and Reid Travis would only combine for 16 points in the Elite Eight loss and Kentucky was sent home. 

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Are we making some connections here? 

Michigan State vs. Maryland (2021-22) 

After Michigan State defeated Maryland on March 6 by a score of 77-67, this win would ironically, set up a rematch in the Big Ten Tournament the same week. 

After scraping by on the road earlier in the season by two points, and now beating them once again, Head Coach Tom Izzo would comment on the topic, stating “Now you’ve got to beat a team three times, but it is what it is.”

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The No. 7 seed Spartans would scrape by once again, this time, by four points and would advance in the tournament.


Tonight, at approximately 7:39 p.m. ET, the ball will go in the air inside of Lucas Oil Stadium, and for 40 minutes, nothing else matters except surviving and advancing. 

However, that day old adage will linger in every Kentucky fan’s mind. 

“Can we actually beat Tennessee a third time?” 

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Men's Basketball

Andrew Carr on Kentucky Battling Adversity: “We’ve Gone Through a Lot This Year… It’s Certainly Made Us Stronger”

In the face of multiple injuries and ever-mounting pressure, Andrew Carr insists that the ‘Cats have only been made stronger.

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entucky Wildcats forward Andrew Carr (7) reacts during the second half in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.
Benny Sieu | Imagn

All throughout the 2024-25′ season, there were innumerable intervals at which things seemed to be taking a turn for the worse for Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats. Between consistent and recurring injuries sustained across the team’s core rotation to questions of bench strength, road resilience and minutes attribution, the horizon has been hazy more often than not.

And yet, the Wildcats are slated to play in Indianapolis this weekend in their first Sweet 16 since 2019. How is that?

Well, according to starting forward Andrew Carr, the hardships he and the team have endured only worked to make them stronger. “We’ve gone through a lot this year,” he said, following the Round of 32 win over six-seed Illinois. “It’s certainly made us stronger.”

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Carr, who finished with four points, six rebounds and two assists in the 84-75 victory, was among the team’s question marks earlier in the season, missing an extended period with back spasms and only returning in slowly increasing spurts.

Since his return, he’s played a crucial, starting role in the ‘Cats late-season run, winning six of their last seven games on the way to a second weekend appearance in the NCAA Tournament.

“I don’t think we’d be as successful as we are right now if we didn’t go through all those things.”

Where Kentucky would be given a fully healthy roster right now is a tantalizing question; though, to Carr’s point, it simply isn’t worth asking. The ‘Cats left to scratch are doing so at a higher level than ever.

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Their aforementioned strength will be tested once more on Friday as Kentucky faces off against the Tennessee Volunteers for the third time this season, looking to complete the season sweep and advance to the Elite Eight.

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Tennessee NCAAT: TV/Streaming Info, Preview, and Betting Odds/Predictions

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entucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) goes to the basket against Tennessee Volunteers.
Jordan Prather | IMAGN

How sweet it is, as the Kentucky Wildcats are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

This week, they are headed to Indianapolis for an opportunity to advance to the Final Four, where the Wildcats will take on a familiar foe, the Tennessee Volunteers. Having swept the regular season series, Kentucky can certainly win, but it is difficult to beat a team three times.

The Volunteers won their opening rounds in Lexington against Wofford and UCLA with relative ease to advance to this week and are in the Sweet 16 for a third straight season.

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Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Contain Chaz Lanier

Chaz Lanier is and has been Tennessee’s most dangerous offensive weapon this season. On the season, Lanier averages more than 18 points per game on 41% shooting from 3. To start the NCAA Tournament, Lanier has been on a burner, scoring 49 points on 55% from deep.

However, you wouldn’t know that just by watching his two performances against Kentucky. In those two games, his averages dropped significantly to 12.5 points per game on 17.6% shooting from 3.

Otega Oweh and Koby Brea have done an excellent job at running him off the 3-point line and forcing him to try and make plays going toward the rim, which he struggles with. They will need to continue to do the same on Friday, and they will even have a more confident Collin Chandler to assist.

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Shoot Better Than 38% from 3

Kentucky’s 3-point percentage has a direct correlation to their winning percentage.

  • When shooting better than 30% from deep: 21-5, 80% win percentage
  • When shooting worse than 30% from deep: 3-6, 33% win percentage

The Wildcats shot 50% in each of their two games against Tennessee this season, despite the Volunteers having the third-best 3-point defense in the country. Can Kentucky sustain that level of shooting?

It will be difficult to reach 50% from 3 as they did in the first two games against the Vols, but the Cats have shot 38.5% and 38.1% in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament.

Shoot 38%, and Kentucky will have a good chance of advancing.

Win the Turnover Battle

After a five game stretch of turning the ball over 12 or more times from mid-February to early March, Kentucky has significantly improved in that area.

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Since the Auburn loss on March 1st, the Wildcats have turned the ball over more than 10 times just once: The SEC Tournament against Alabama. Lamont Butler was out for that game, proving just how valuable his presence is.

Kentucky has not just been taking better care of the ball, but they have been generating more turnovers. They are averaging nearly nine steals per game, including a season-high 14 against Illinois.

As the most efficient offense, the Cats cannot afford to give the possession advantage against the inconsistent offense of Tennessee.

Make Free Throws

61%. That is Kentucky’s free throw percentage from the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament, going 22/36 from the charity stripe.

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Simply, they have to shoot better from the line. Kentucky has lost multiple close Tournament games in the past for this reason.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Chaz Lanier, 6-4, 199 lbs

  • 18.1 PPG (5th in SEC)
  • 41.0% 3P (3rd in SEC)
  • 3.3 3PM per game (leads SEC)

G Zakai Zeigler, 5-9, 171 pounds

  • 13.7 PPG
  • 7.4 APG (1st in SEC, 5th nationally)
  • 2.0 SPG (3rd in SEC)

F Igor Milicic, 6-10, 225 lbs

  • 9.7 PPG
  • 6.8 RPG (10th in SEC)
  • 46.9% FG

Kentucky Basketball vs. Tennessee Volunteers

Time: 7:39 PM ET on March 28th, 2025
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana
TV Channel: TBS/TruTV
Announcers: Andrew Catalon, Steve Lappas, and Evan Washburn will call the action.
Online Stream: Sling TV, NCAA March Madness Live, and the NCAA March Madness Live app
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network. You can listen on mobile devices with the Varsity Network app.
Replay: Check local listings on CBS Sports Network and March Madness Live for a condensed replay.
Rosters: UK | UT
Stats to Know: UK | UT
KenPom: UK | UT
Team Sheet: UK | UT

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Tennessee favored by 4.5 points with an over/under of 144.5. As far as the metrics go, they give Kentucky about a 1 in three chance to advance to the Elite Eight. BartTorvik is the most confident in the Cats, giving them a 39% chance at victory. ESPN is close behind at 36.9%, followed by KenPom at 35%, DRatings at 32%, and EvanMiya at 31.1%.

Predictions: BartTorvik 74-71 is the only analytic going with a one-score loss. KenPom (76-72) and Haslametrics (75-71) are going with a four-point loss. DRatings (82-76) and EvanMiya (77-71) project the largest margin of defeat at six points. Why not Kentucky? Why not advance to the Elite Eight? Let’s keep the good vibes rolling. I’m going with a 76-71 victory, Kentucky!

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Send us your Kentucky vs. Tennessee score predictions in the comments section!

Go CATS!

Also published on A Sea of Blue.

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