The Wildcats have all the tools to win no. 9 this year but let’s analyze Kentucky’s chances and what gives them the best chance and what does or could potentially hurt them come tournament time.
Why They Will
1.Rebounding
Kentucky currently sits 30th in the country averaging 39.04 rebounds per game. However, they outrebounded the “best” rebounding team in the country, North Carolina. In their December matchup, the Wildcats outrebounded the Tar Heels by 11 rebounds. Where Kentucky is most impressive is their offensive rebounding. Kentucky rebounds 36.6% of their misses, which is the 7th highest rate in the country. Interestingly, 2 of 4 teams Kentucky has lost to rebound their own misses at a higher rate, Duke and LSU.
2. Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
Only one time in history has a team not ranked top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency won the NCAA championship, that outlier being the 2014 UConn team. Kentucky is currently 14th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. Making them one of six teams currently in the top-20 in each category, those other teams being Duke, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, and Lousiville.
3. Versatility
This Kentucky team has come a long way since the opening night embarrassment to Duke and giving up 82 points to VMI. This team has found different ways to win all year as they’ve grown into the national title contender they are. Before Kentucky was a top-10 defense and beating teams up in the paint, Kentucky’s defense was far from elite and the two best players were Reid Travis and Keldon Johnson. They’ve won games using the free-throw line (Auburn), forcing turnovers & transition (North Carolina & Vandy), stingy defense (Florida), physicality & toughness (Tennessee). This team has pieces that can do different things and one player is capable of picking up the slack when someone else is having an off game.
Why They Won’t
1.Can PJ Washington keep his play up?
After destroying Vanderbilt Calipari said, “I’ve been waiting a year and a half for him to play this way”. PJ Washington has been playing at a first-team All American level the past 8 games averaging 21.0 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.4 apg, and 1.3 bpg on 55.4% FG and 50% 3P. This is the version of PJ Washington the Cats needs in order to be successful but is this level of play sustainable for PJ?
2. Outside shooting
Kentucky is 316th out of the 351 NCAA Division-1 schools in 3P made per game. It’s not even the fact that they don’t make them, we are 340th in 3P attempted. Calipari has yet to embrace the three-point shot as it has become the biggest shot in the entire sport of basketball, and can be seen when we face a good zone. That could come back to get the Wildcats in March.
3. Turnovers
Kentucky is 137th in turnovers per game at 12.8, which is one of the highest amongst the national title contenders. Kentucky can’t give up as many free possessions and points and expect to win a title, especially with their lack of shooting. However, in their last 5 games, they are improving in that area.
Kentucky is capable of beating anyone, and is as talented and is playing as well as any team in the country. However, they aren’t without faults and its March Madness for a reason.
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