Riding high and looking to break back into the AP top five, the Kentucky Wildcats will play host to the Alabama Crimson Tide this Saturday in Rupp Arena.

Game time is set for 12 PM ET on ESPN for what should be the biggest matchup of the week in college basketball. This is also the first of two battles between two of the three highest-scoring offenses in the country.

The Wildcats are coming off a double-digit win over the Texas A&M Aggies, giving them their fifth top-15 win on the season, the most in the country.

Alabama, ranked fourth in the country, will give the Cats an opportunity to add to that total. However, coming off a double-digit loss to Ole Miss at home, the Crimson Tide will be motivated to rebound from a loss. They’ve already done that twice this season against ranked opponents (at the time) in Illinois and North Carolina, winning those games by an average margin of 19 points.

Picked to win the SEC in the preseason, Alabama is tied with Kentucky in the standings at 3-1. Whichever team can win will get a big boost in the standings early in the SEC schedule, especially with top teams Florida and Tennessee already suffering defeats, while conference favorite Auburn is without Johni Broome for the foreseeable future.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Battle of the Boards

By average, Alabama is the second-best rebounding team in the nation, excelling on the offensive boards. In their 17 games this season, Alabama has been outrebounded just once. That happened back in November in their loss to Illinois, where they were outrebounded by seven, that came in part because the Tide didn’t miss often in that 100-87 beating.

What’s promising for the Wildcats is they’ve beaten the two best offensive rebounding teams in the country in the last tw40-30 for the game.

The boards will be THE priority for both teams. Kentucky must send all five players to the glass, limiting Alabama to just one shot and avoiding momentum-swinging buckets.

The Tide have had a tendency to give their opponents offensive rebounds this season, even more so than Kentucky. That is an area they could take advantage of.

Capitalize on Free Throws and Turnovers

Alabama’s two most significant weaknesses are troubles with turnovers and defending without fouling.

On the season, Alabama averages more than 13 turnovers per game. That is the third-highest mark in the SEC.

Against Ole Miss, that problem was at its worst as they turned the ball over 21 times, a season-high, playing a large part in a field-goal attempt deficit of 23 shots. Many of these were forced with ball pressure, especially on drives, leading to errant passes that were intercepted.

If Kentucky can recreate similar intensity, they can turn Alabama’s possessions into their possessions. This will give their offense more scoring opportunities but fewer for the Crimson Tide.

Alabama also fouls a lot. Fouling their opponents 19 times per game on the season, that number has been even higher in SEC play, committing nearly 21 fouls per game. This gives their opponents nearly 27 free throws per game in four SEC games.

Kentucky has been inconsistent at the line this season, shooting as low as 57.9% against Mississippi State on 19 attempts and as high as 84.4% against Ohio State on 32 attempts.

The Wildcats, who converted 24/31 free throws (77.4%) vs. Texas A&M, need to take advantage of the charity stripe in what is expected to be a close game.

Drive-and-Kick

Alabama is ranked 32nd in defensive efficiency, much better than Kentucky’s 75th-place mark. That said, the Crimson Tide are susceptible to straight-line drives at times.

Lamont Butler has not been at his best at finishing in recent games, but his quick first step and aggressiveness should allow him to get into the paint, drawing attention and leaving shooters open.

The same could be said for Otega Oweh and Jaxson Robinson. One of the key moments in Kentucky’s win over Texas A&M was Robinson driving to the rim and finding an open Travis Perry for 3 that gave Kentucky some much-needed separation in the second half after only leading 35-32 at halftime.

It’s also worth pointing out that Butler was injured several times in the win over Texas A&M, including what looked to be a shoulder injury that flared up several more times. It will be interesting to see what his status is when the SEC injury report becomes available Friday night.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Mark Sears 6-1, 190 lbs

• 18.6 PPG (3rd in SEC)
• 4.5 APG (5th in SEC)
• 35.7% 3P
• Two-time All-SEC selection

F Grant Nelson 6-11, 230 lbs

• 12.2 PPG
• 8.6 RPG (T-3rd in SEC)
• 52.6% FG

G Labaron Philon 6-4, 177 lbs

• 12.1 PPG
• 4.0 APG
• 51.4% FG
• 2.4 Assist/Turnover Ratio (8th in SEC)

Kentucky Basketball vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

• Time: 12 PM ET on January 18th
• Location: Central Bank Center at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Announcers: Dan Shulman and Jay Bilas
• Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
• Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
• Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
• Rosters: UK | BAMA
• Stats to Know: UK | BAMA
• KenPom: UK | BAMA
• Team Sheet: UK | BAMA

• Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds for this game, so check back on Friday for that. BartTorvik and KenPom give Kentucky a slight advantage, at 53% and 55%, respectively. ESPN gives the home team a 52.5% chance of winning. EvanMiya gives the Wildcats just a 37.7% chance of winning.
• Predictions: BartTorvik (93-92) and KenPom (90-88) go with one-score Kentucky wins. EvanMiya (90-87) and Haslametrics (91-90) project a one-score loss for the Cats. I think Kentucky matches up fairly well, though the Crimson Tide do have an athleticism advantage. That said, given the home-court advantage, I’m going with a 93-88 victory, Kentucky!

Send us your Kentucky vs. Alabama score predictions in the comments section!

And Go CATS!

Also posted on a Sea of Blue.