After one of the biggest wins of the season, against Auburn, the Kentucky Wildcats suffered a tough loss on the road to LSU after going up as much as 15 points in the second half. As frustrating of a loss as that was, attention quickly turned toward Alabama who will come into Rupp Arena on Saturday.

In his fifth season at Alabama, head coach Nate Oats has put the Crimson Tide atop the SEC standings and in a position to win their 3rd SEC regular season in that span. Given they have just twelve in program history, that is an impressive feat.

Saturday’s matchup is almost certain to be an offensive showcase, with both teams having two of the best offenses in the country, Alabama 2nd and Kentucky 9th in KenPom offensive efficiency. Looking deeper, this year’s edition of Alabama excels in areas that can really give Kentucky fits with their perimeter shooting, rebounding, and physicality.

That said, it is an opportunity for the Wildcats to get another quality win and regain some momentum with March just days away. Let’s dive into the matchup.

Defend the Three Point Line

A few weeks ago, John Calipari talked about this Kentucky team’s excellent three-point shooting and needing to guard the three better to have the advantage. “We gotta guard the three-ball better,” he said. “We shoot it so well, that should be our advantage. We can’t be even.”

There will be no bigger test of that than Saturday.

Both teams are top 15 in three-point percentage, Kentucky 1st (40.5%) and Alabama 15th (38%), and both have three players in the top ten of the SEC in three-point percentage, but they differ in how many they shoot. Kentucky averages 23.7 three-point attempts per game, which is above average, but Alabama averages more than 30 attempts, the fourth most in the country.

With Alabama shooting such a high percentage from three, on a lot of attempts, they are going to make their share. However, Kentucky has to make those shots difficult and key in on top shooters like Mark Sears, Latrell Wrightsell, and Rylan Griffen who shoot 39% on five or more attempts per game.

Be Physical

For much of the season, Auburn was known to be a “bully” team, leaning into their physicality. Against Kentucky last weekend, the Wildcats were the more physical team, with Bruce Pearl going as far as saying he would be turning some plays in the SEC. That is the Kentucky team that needs to come out against Alabama.

The Crimson Tide are physical and one area that shows up prominently is on the boards, as they are a top ten rebounding team in the nation. It’s not just an Oscar Tshiebwe type of player doing most of the work, it is a team effort. Each Wildcat on the floor must box out.

In general, “Do what other teams do to us,” as Adout Thiero has said this season. Get into the guards and make them uncomfortable on the perimeter, don’t allow easy drives to the basket. Be the aggressor.

Make Your Free Throws

Given Alabama’s physicality, they foul A LOT, amongst the highest rates in the country. That means Kentucky is not likely to get a lot of clean looks at the rim.

Fortunately, this one of Calipari’s best free throw shooting teams, shooting nearly 76 percent from the line, ranked top 50 nationally. In what is expected to be a close game, Kentucky can’t leave points on the board, as they did in losses to Florida, Tennessee, and Texas A&M. Aim to shoot 75% or better from the line.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Mark Sears 6-1, 185 lbs

• 20.4 PPG (1st in SEC)
• 4.1 APG (5th in SEC)
• 43.9% 3P (8th in SEC)

F Grant Nelson 6-11, 230 lbs

• 12.3 PPG
• 5.6 RPG
• 1.7 BPG (4th in SEC)

G Aaron Estrada 6-3, 190 lbs

• 13.1 PPG
• 5.0 RPG
• 4.3 APG (3rd in SEC)

Kentucky Basketball vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

• Time: 4 PM EST on Feb. 24th
• Location: Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky.
• TV Channel: CBS
• Online Stream: CBS Sports and the CBS Sports app.
• Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
• Replay: CBS Sports app check local listings.
• Rosters: UK | BAMA
• Stats to Know: UK | BAMA
• KenPom: UK | BAMA
• Team Sheet: UK | BAMA
• Odds: The odds for the game have yet to be released, but check out SportsBetExpert for your picks. ESPN’s matchup predictor is the harshest on the Cats, giving them just a 38.2% chance at victory. Followed by KenPom at 43%, EvanMiya at 45.4%, and BartTorvik at 49%. DRatings is the one projection that is in favor of Kentucky, at 53.5%.
• Predictions: All the projections expect a score game. DRatings has Kentucky winning narrowly, 88-86. Bart Torvik picks Kentucky to lose 92-91. Haslametrics and EvanMiya have them losing 89-88 and 90-89. KenPom expects a 90-88 loss for the Cats.
• Also published on A Sea of Blue.