What a two-game stretch it has been for the Kentucky Wildcats. First dominating the SEC leader Alabama, followed by a game-winner at Mississippi State. With two straight wins, the Wildcats have the opportunity to extend their winning streak to three games, which would be their longest of 2024, as Arkansas comes to Rupp Arena on Saturday.

This will be the second matchup of the season between the two teams, with Kentucky getting a 63-57 win at Arkansas in a College Gameday matchup back in January. Since then, things have gone from bad to worse for Eric Musselman and the Razorbacks. In the eight-game stretch since, they have gone just 4-4, with two of their wins coming against Missouri, who is winless in the SEC this season. They are coming off a home loss to Vanderbilt, where they trailed for more than half of the game.

While Arkansas is trending down, Kentucky is trending up and this is a game the Wildcats should control for the majority of the contest, especially at home.

Let’s look at the matchup.

Frontcourt Rotation

The most interesting development for Kentucky of late has been the frontcourt rotation. Just a few weeks ago, it looked as if Ugonna Onyenso would assume the role of the primary big. While he has started nine straight games, he has played 15 minutes or less in the last two games, with Zvonimir Ivisic playing setting season-highs in minutes in each game.

Ivisic certainly helps raise Kentucky’s offense when he is on the court, but the question has been his defense. Against Mississippi State, he was analytically Kentucky’s best defense with the best defensive rating and stoppage rate on the team. Each big brings different strengths, but if Ivisic can continue to become more comfortable on the defensive end, his versatility on offense may give him the edge.

This conversation excludes Tre Mitchell who has returned to practice and is expected to return soon. He has yet to play extended minutes with either big Onyenso or Ivisic since hitting their stride. It will be interesting to see how he will fit in certain lineups and in the rotation.

Good Start, End it Early

Unlike the first game where there was some hope Arkansas could turn their season around, things are much bleaker this time around. While they still have talent, the Razorbacks are now 14-14 on the year and certainly won’t make the NCAA Tournament barring a miraculous run.

With little morale surrounding Arkansas basketball and rumors Musselman may leave after the season (potentially Louisville…), this is a game Kentucky needs to win at home and put away early, not giving them any confidence. That begins with a good start to the game which has been an inconsistency for the Wildcats this year. Entering March, they need to be consistent in that, rather than putting themselves in a hole to start each game.

Rebounding Battle

Arkansas is not a good rebounding team, but they still outrebounded Kentucky in the first game. This time around, Kentucky is more experienced and better equipped to handle the physicality the Razorbacks will look to play with.

Limiting Arkansas to just one possession and getting defensive rebounds to push it in transition will be a big part of Kentucky’s game plan.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Tramon Mark, 6-6, 185 lbs

• 16.8 PPG (8th in SEC)
• 49.3% FG (9th in SEC)
• 38.0% 3P (20th in SEC)
• Coming off 42-point and 36-point performances.

G Khalif Battle, 6-5, 185 lbs

• 12.7 PPG
• 37.8% 3P (22nd in SEC)

F Makhi Mitchell, 6-10, 240 lbs

Averages over the last 9 games

• 12.4 PPG
• 7.7 RPG
• 1.4 BPG

Kentucky Basketball vs. Arkansas Razorbacks

• Date: Saturday, March 2nd, 2024
• Time: 1:30 PM ET
• Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky.
• TV Channel: CBS
• Online Stream: CBS Sports and the CBS Sports app.
• Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
• Replay: CBS Sports app check local listings.
• Rosters: UK | ARK
• Stats to Know: UK | ARK
• KenPom: UK | ARK
• Team Sheets: UK | ARK
• Odds: The odds have yet to be officially released, but the line is expected to be around -10.5 Kentucky. ESPN gives Kentucky a 70.7% chance of winning this road contest. EvanMiya gives the Cats a 70.5% chance of victory. Bart Torvik has it at 73%, and KenPom is at 73%.
• Predictions: Bart Torvik picks Kentucky to win on the road, 89-81, with Haslametrics providing a similar score projection, 89-79. However, EvanMiya has the Cats winning just 85-79. KenPom is going with an 87-80 victory, Kentucky!

Also published on A Sea of Blue.