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Kentucky Leave/Stay Predictions As We Enter Player Meeting Week

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© Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

It has now been over a week since Kentucky’s heartbreaking loss to Kansas State, which has given time for each player to meet with their families and camps to think about their future. On Wednesday, John Calipari will sit down with each of them to help them make a decision.

As we enter ‘player meeting week’, decisions will start to be announced. With that said, let’s give the latest update and prediction on each player.

Near-Locks

There are a handful of players that practically had their decisions made before the start of this season. The one outlier is Sahvir Wheeler, who found himself in a smaller role this season before his injuries. He will look to transfer elsewhere, for a system that better fits him.

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For Cason Wallace, the decision is easy, he is going to be a lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft. As for Toppin and Tshiebwe, there is not much that they can do to improve their stock significantly by returning for another season.

Lance Ware is not the most talented player on the roster, but has flourished in his role at Kentucky and was even named a captain this past season. Last summer, Ware cited his love for Kentucky and Calipari as a reason not to transfer, even having the self-awareness to say, “not everybody can be the star.”

As for Adou Thiero, he came to Kentucky with the understanding that he would not get much playing time, but he actually saw the court in twenty games, playing an average of nearly 10 minutes per game. Based on the current roster construction Adou would likely be behind DJ Wagner and Rob Dillingham (there are rumors he may not make it campus) and share minutes with Reed Sheppard. So there may be a decision to be made there, but I expect him to be back.

  • Cason Wallace: Gone 100%
  • Sahvir Wheeler: Transfer, 100%
  • Oscar Tshiebwe: Gone, 95%
  • Jacob Toppin: Gone, 95%
  • Lance Ware: Stay, 95%
  • Adou Thiero: Stay, 80%

Difficult Decisions

Chris Livingston

Coming to Kentucky, Livingston had a first-round NBA Draft grade and expected himself to be a one-and-done player, as did those around him. This also included LeBron James-owned sports agency, Klutch Sports, which represents Livingston.

Hurt by consistency early, Livingston worked his way into being one of Kentucky’s key players at the end of the season. Over the final 13 games of this past season, Livingston played more than 32 minutes per game, contributing 7.9 points and 6.5 rebounds on 55 percent shooting.

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With an offseason to improve, most importantly his jump shot, he could give himself an opportunity to himself back into the first round with a return. Yet, that may not happen.

As said before, those around Livingston wanted a short trip to the NBA. While currently not projected, given his potential and NBA connections, he would likely be a second-round draft pick. For those reasons, I expect him to put his name in the NBA Draft while retaining his eligibility, but ultimately keep it there.

Prediction: Go through NBA Draft process, Stay in Draft

Confidence Level: Medium, 60%

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Antonio Reeves

Following the Kansas State game, Antonio Reeves told me “I’d love to be back. I love the school. I love the fans. I love everybody here.” That decision will come down to his role and NIL money.

It is reported that Reeves made six figures from NIL this past season in Lexington, so more opportunities should be there next season. As the roster is constructed, shooting is the biggest weakness. Therefore a top 15-shooter in program history (39.8%, 14th in all-time percentage) should be welcomed back with open arms.

Reeves will and should go through the NBA Draft process to receive feedback, but I fully expect him to be back.

Prediction: Go through NBA Draft process, Return to Kentucky.

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Confidence Level: High, 80%

Ugonna Onyenso

After the loss to Kansas State, I was able to interview Ugonna Onyenso, and he immediately talked about stepping in as a leader and accomplishing things that this team couldn’t. Yet, there is a possibility that may not happen.

If this decision was completely up to Oneyenso, he would be back at Kentucky for another season. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Being brought to the United States from Nigeria, this is a different situation than most players.

While this isn’t a Shaedon Sharpe situation where Oneysno could go to the draft as a Top 10 pick, there are people around him that are open to exploring possibilities outside of Kentucky, including some Big East programs. With that said, I don’t see another program that can offer what Kentucky can, which includes a large role and good NIL opportunities.

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Prediction: Return to Kentucky.

Confidence Level: Medium, 65%

Daimion Collins

Daimion Collins’ situation is unlike any other, as it has little to do with basketball. Prior to the season, Daimion’s father, Ben Collins, passed away unexpectedly. This impacted the entire family and hurt Daimion’s progression early this season, so much so, that Calipari said he lost sixteen pounds from his already thin frame.

Damion’s father did want his son to stay the process at Kentucky, even if it took all four seasons. However, it is family over everything for Collins, which is part of the reason why his father lived in Lexington.

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With that said, I expect Daimion to transfer to a school closer to home, with full support from the Kentucky program. Collins did have Texas and Texas Tech as finalists when he committed to Kentucky in 2021, but with the coaching changes since, I don’t expect those schools to be in play. Instead, look at SMU and Houston.

Prediction: Transfer

Confidence Level: Medium, 70%

CJ Fredrick

CJ Fredrick loves the game of basketball, but after enduring five seasons of college basketball, without one full healthy season, he may hang it up. Unlike other players on this list, it is retirement or return for Fredrick, as he will not decide to transfer or play professionally.

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Following the Kansas State game, Fredrick was very emotional when talking about what could be his last game, saying he has “no idea” what he will decide.

Fredrick is someone I have not heard much about, but given that he is getting married this summer and all that he had endured in his career, I don’t expect him to return to Kentucky for another season.

Prediction: Retire

Confidence Level: Low, 35%

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Men's Basketball

Mark Pope “hopeful” for NCAA to allow summer trips in the United States

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Kentucky basketball coach Mark Pope is hopeful that the NCAA changes the rules and allows teams to take summer trips within the United States, not just internationally.
UK Athletics

This spring, the NCAA passed a rule that allows men’s and women’s college basketball programs to participate in an international summer trip every year, rather than just one every four years.

These trips are important as they most importantly allow teams to have extra practice time, but they also allow teams to face true competition and aid in team bonding. For the fans, the trips allow the unique experience to travel with the team or watch them on TV, building excitement for the upcoming season.

In his first press conference of the summer, Mark Pope talked about his hope for an additional rule change to summer trips, allowing them to be done in the states.

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“There is one of the things that we’re excited about, potentially coming down the pipeline that we’ve been pushing for, is now we’re allowed to take international trips every single year. We’d like to actually make that something that could be done domestically,” Pope said on Friday

Pope argues that this is a way to bring more attention to college basketball in the summer.

“We’re always trying to take up windows of time with college basketball, in terms of the way we are in the public sphere, and I hope that that change goes through,” he said. “The opportunities that we’re exploring right now with that would be game-changing. I’m hopeful.”

There is also a financial aspect to this.

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Foreign trips cost money for the program and the fans. Typically, a program works with the resort or tour operator at a discounted rate, as they aim to make more money from fans’ travel. Yet, there is still a cost, and in a college landscape where money is at a premium and needed to be competitive, every dollar counts. Cost was even something mentioned when Mark Pope was asked about why Kentucky did not take a summer trip this offseason.

Whereas, if a summer trip can be done domestically, that first reduces the cost for the program, and second, eases the barrier of entry for fans.

Let’s say Kentucky is able to organize or join a multi-team event in Indianapolis. This is close enough for many Kentucky fans to travel at a lower cost than, let’s say, the Bahamas, increasing ticket sales. There is also potential for TV deals. In short, increased revenue and reduced costs.

At the end of the day, Pope is just asking for more freedom for summer trips. In turn, that would mean more accessible summer college basketball.

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“If you talk to the guys on our team, they would like more time on the court together and with us. They like more opportunities to play more games,” Pope said. “Our staff feels the same way. I think that’s probably a common theme throughout college basketball. So the more freedom we have to actually get work done, I think the better.”

Also posted on A Sea of Blue.

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La Familia Blown Out in Road Matchup Against The Ville

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Photo via UK Athletics

On Monday, July 20, La Familia traveled to Louisville, KY to take on The Ville in the historic Freedom Hall. With a 1-0 series lead, the Kentucky alumni had a game to give before returning home. Unfortunately for them, they fell by a score of 82-62 in a dominant showing from the Cardinals.

Heading into this matchup, there was yet again some drama with the injury report, as Willie Cauley-Stein was listed as questionable, Marcus Lee was listed as out and Archie Goodwin was marked to make his debut on Monday for the Wildcats.

However, as the day went on, TBT officially announced that Cauley-Stein will play but that Goodwin will not, sending Big Blue Nation into another frenzy of question marks. Nonetheless, no matter if it’s a Marquette alum balling out for you or if it’s the Wildcats’ own, the show must go on.

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The majority of the first quarter showed a competitive ballgame, with La Familia holding an 11-9 lead at the media break. James Mainor-Bell banged in two threes to start the game, with Andrew Harrison joining in on the three party after an ankle breaker. The Ville was doing their best to play bully ball with Montrezl Harrell, but the Wildcats held him to only two points in his first quarter of action.

Harrell scored five straight for the Cardinals to start the second quarter, giving them their first lead of the game at the seven-minute mark. From then on, it would be complete and utter domination from the star forward, dropping 16 points in the quarter alone on perfect shooting.

Harrison, Chris Coffey and others did their best to stop the bleeding, but words cannot describe how quickly The Ville took control and did whatever they wanted on the court. La Familia only shot 8/30 from the field in the first half and nothing could go their way.

At the break, the alumni from the bluegrass trailed 36-22.

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From poster dunks, lobs and threes, there was no idea of a comeback in any Kentucky fans’ heart, with The Ville having fun while they could in front of their fanbase.

Harrison and Coffey would combined for 34 points, but in response, Harrell finished the night with 35 points and eight rebounds to tie up the three-game series.

Up next, La Familia will host The Ville on Wednesday, July 22 for the third and final game of the series. The winner will take home the bragging rights and send their in-state rival on a one-way exit out of the TBT tournament. Tip is set for 6:00 p.m. ET and will air live on FS1.

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Injury Report Update: La Familia Prepares For Game Two

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*UPDATE (1:10 p.m. ET): Willie Cauley-Stein is ACTIVE but Archie Goodwin has been downgraded to UNACTIVE per TBT Stats & Info. A reason has not been revealed publicly.

There’s nothing like some evening basketball in the middle of the summer, and that’s exactly what we’re getting later tonight with La Familia’s matchup with The Ville. Tipoff for game two is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET inside of Freedom Hall, with the Kentucky alumni looking to take care of business on the road.

Doing so, will be difficult. We all saw what playing in enemy territory can do to a team – Louisville experienced it on Saturday and went down by as much as 15 points in the third quarter. Given the away atmosphere, the desperation from the Cardinals and unfortunately, some injury news, we’re in for an interesting one.

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Game two’s official injury report has Marcus Lee, who missed game one with the team, listed as OUT for tonight’s matchup. He was originally believed to make his debut on Monday, but it seems it may be the next series where Lee will make an appearance. Willie Cauley-Stein, after tweaking his ankle in La Familia’s first game, is listed as questionable, making Kentucky’s size a thing to question.

Don’t worry though Big Blue Nation, because KY Insider brings good news with the bad. Archie Goodwin, who was a major part of the team’s scoring last summer, will be making his debut on July 20. Sources confirmed that he was attending a wedding on Saturday and couldn’t make the season opener.

The Ville will also be without two key players who missed game one, Ray Spalding and Angel Nunez. The full injury report can be seen below.

La Familia

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  • Archie Goodwin – AVAILABLE
  • Willie Cauley-Stein – QUESTIONABLE
  • Marcus Lee – OUT

The Ville

  • Ray Spalding – OUT
  • Angel Nunez – OUT

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