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Men's Basketball

Kentucky Leave/Stay Predictions As We Enter Player Meeting Week

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© Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports

It has now been over a week since Kentucky’s heartbreaking loss to Kansas State, which has given time for each player to meet with their families and camps to think about their future. On Wednesday, John Calipari will sit down with each of them to help them make a decision.

As we enter ‘player meeting week’, decisions will start to be announced. With that said, let’s give the latest update and prediction on each player.

Near-Locks

There are a handful of players that practically had their decisions made before the start of this season. The one outlier is Sahvir Wheeler, who found himself in a smaller role this season before his injuries. He will look to transfer elsewhere, for a system that better fits him.

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For Cason Wallace, the decision is easy, he is going to be a lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft. As for Toppin and Tshiebwe, there is not much that they can do to improve their stock significantly by returning for another season.

Lance Ware is not the most talented player on the roster, but has flourished in his role at Kentucky and was even named a captain this past season. Last summer, Ware cited his love for Kentucky and Calipari as a reason not to transfer, even having the self-awareness to say, “not everybody can be the star.”

As for Adou Thiero, he came to Kentucky with the understanding that he would not get much playing time, but he actually saw the court in twenty games, playing an average of nearly 10 minutes per game. Based on the current roster construction Adou would likely be behind DJ Wagner and Rob Dillingham (there are rumors he may not make it campus) and share minutes with Reed Sheppard. So there may be a decision to be made there, but I expect him to be back.

  • Cason Wallace: Gone 100%
  • Sahvir Wheeler: Transfer, 100%
  • Oscar Tshiebwe: Gone, 95%
  • Jacob Toppin: Gone, 95%
  • Lance Ware: Stay, 95%
  • Adou Thiero: Stay, 80%

Difficult Decisions

Chris Livingston

Coming to Kentucky, Livingston had a first-round NBA Draft grade and expected himself to be a one-and-done player, as did those around him. This also included LeBron James-owned sports agency, Klutch Sports, which represents Livingston.

Hurt by consistency early, Livingston worked his way into being one of Kentucky’s key players at the end of the season. Over the final 13 games of this past season, Livingston played more than 32 minutes per game, contributing 7.9 points and 6.5 rebounds on 55 percent shooting.

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With an offseason to improve, most importantly his jump shot, he could give himself an opportunity to himself back into the first round with a return. Yet, that may not happen.

As said before, those around Livingston wanted a short trip to the NBA. While currently not projected, given his potential and NBA connections, he would likely be a second-round draft pick. For those reasons, I expect him to put his name in the NBA Draft while retaining his eligibility, but ultimately keep it there.

Prediction: Go through NBA Draft process, Stay in Draft

Confidence Level: Medium, 60%

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Antonio Reeves

Following the Kansas State game, Antonio Reeves told me “I’d love to be back. I love the school. I love the fans. I love everybody here.” That decision will come down to his role and NIL money.

It is reported that Reeves made six figures from NIL this past season in Lexington, so more opportunities should be there next season. As the roster is constructed, shooting is the biggest weakness. Therefore a top 15-shooter in program history (39.8%, 14th in all-time percentage) should be welcomed back with open arms.

Reeves will and should go through the NBA Draft process to receive feedback, but I fully expect him to be back.

Prediction: Go through NBA Draft process, Return to Kentucky.

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Confidence Level: High, 80%

Ugonna Onyenso

After the loss to Kansas State, I was able to interview Ugonna Onyenso, and he immediately talked about stepping in as a leader and accomplishing things that this team couldn’t. Yet, there is a possibility that may not happen.

If this decision was completely up to Oneyenso, he would be back at Kentucky for another season. Unfortunately, that is not the case. Being brought to the United States from Nigeria, this is a different situation than most players.

While this isn’t a Shaedon Sharpe situation where Oneysno could go to the draft as a Top 10 pick, there are people around him that are open to exploring possibilities outside of Kentucky, including some Big East programs. With that said, I don’t see another program that can offer what Kentucky can, which includes a large role and good NIL opportunities.

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Prediction: Return to Kentucky.

Confidence Level: Medium, 65%

Daimion Collins

Daimion Collins’ situation is unlike any other, as it has little to do with basketball. Prior to the season, Daimion’s father, Ben Collins, passed away unexpectedly. This impacted the entire family and hurt Daimion’s progression early this season, so much so, that Calipari said he lost sixteen pounds from his already thin frame.

Damion’s father did want his son to stay the process at Kentucky, even if it took all four seasons. However, it is family over everything for Collins, which is part of the reason why his father lived in Lexington.

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With that said, I expect Daimion to transfer to a school closer to home, with full support from the Kentucky program. Collins did have Texas and Texas Tech as finalists when he committed to Kentucky in 2021, but with the coaching changes since, I don’t expect those schools to be in play. Instead, look at SMU and Houston.

Prediction: Transfer

Confidence Level: Medium, 70%

CJ Fredrick

CJ Fredrick loves the game of basketball, but after enduring five seasons of college basketball, without one full healthy season, he may hang it up. Unlike other players on this list, it is retirement or return for Fredrick, as he will not decide to transfer or play professionally.

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Following the Kansas State game, Fredrick was very emotional when talking about what could be his last game, saying he has “no idea” what he will decide.

Fredrick is someone I have not heard much about, but given that he is getting married this summer and all that he had endured in his career, I don’t expect him to return to Kentucky for another season.

Prediction: Retire

Confidence Level: Low, 35%

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BB Recruiting

Kentucky Named a “Loser” of the Transfer Portal This Offseason, Frustration Grows

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© Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal and USA Today Network / USA TODAY NETWORK

One NCAA Tournament win over the last three seasons is far from acceptable by Kentucky basketball standards. For that reason, tension and expectations are high going into what many believe is a make-or-break season for John Calipari.

While the Wildcats do have the No. 1 recruiting class coming in – which includes five freshmen – they have only returned only two players that played at least five minutes per game last season – Adou Thiero and Ugonna Onyenso – and have lost at least four to the NBA Draft or to the portal.

As the roster stands, only eight scholarships of the thirteen the NCAA allows are taken. With the draft withdrawal deadline on May 31st, that number could change as Chris Livingston, Oscar Tshiebwe, and/or Antonio must make their final decisions. However, it is highly unlikely they all decide to return.

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With that said, the staff has made their bed. They didn’t express a lot of interest in the transfer portal, but lost out on the two prospects they did want, Hunter Dickinson and Keshad Johnson. Now this late in the portal, there aren’t currently many options that can replace the production or level of player that Kentucky has lost and are expected to lose.

For these reasons, 247Sports’ Travis Branham named Kentucky one of the biggest losers of the transfer portal.

“They do have the No. 1 recruiting class in 2023 incoming but this is a team that has been at the mercy of Oscar Tshiebwe and Antonio Reeves. There is so much riding on these two and they have not landed a single transfer as of yet. Even if one of those guys opts to go to the draft and not return, that’s an extremely big hit to the Kentucky program, especially this late into the portal,” Branham said.

“There’s not many more that we’re anticipating to go in there. Will still be a couple, but not many that can move the needle and they will be in line trying to advocate to get these kids on campus. As of today, there’s only seven scholarship players for the 2023-24 season for Kentucky and that can really be a big, big miss if Antonio Reeves and Oscar Tshiebwe opt to stay in the draft.”

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Kentucky is recruiting all three players to stay, but realistically hoping for the return of Reeves and Tshiebwe. John Calipari is planning to visit Tshiebwe this weekend in Charlotte to gauge where he stands in his final decision.

At the start of the offseason, Reeves and Tshiebwe would have been two of Kentucky’s best options regardless of who was in the portal, therefore if Calipari is able to retain them, the outlook will become much more optimistic. While Livingston could have an All-SEC caliber ceiling as a sophomore, Calipari could find a capable wing player (i.e. David Jones) to fill that role.

Either way, the roster picture will become much clearer in just a matter of days, but depending on what those decisions are the panic meter will certainly rise for the Wildcats.

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Men's Basketball

Is Oscar Tshiebwe Trending Towards a Return? It’s a “Toss-Up”, Per Report

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© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

May 31st is the most important upcoming date for the Kentucky basketball team, as that is the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline. The final stay/go decisions from Chris Livingston, Antonio Reeves, and Oscar Tshiebwe will be made, but as it stands, not one of those decisions is clear. Of them, Tshiebwe’s decision may be the most dynamic.

Going into last season, most assumed that it would be Oscar Tshiebwe’s last season at Kentucky, and as the offseason began, that expectation continued. However, the effect of NIL on his decision was initially underestimated.

Last season, Tshiebwe made an estimated $2 million in NIL, which far surpasses the valuation of a late second-round NBA Draft pick, which is near the minimum salary of just over $1 million. With a return, there is optimism that he would make a similar amount.

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On the other hand, Tshiebwe is 23 years old and his professional prospects would not improve with a return. Instead, he would almost certainly be taking a reduced role – which he is okay with – as is expected with the talented freshman class coming in. To add, Tshiebwe helped his stock with his NBA Draft Combine performance last week.

With that said, Tshiebwe’s decision looks to be a “toss-up” and it is according to a live stream featuring Jack Pilgrim of Kentucky Sports Radio. Those hoping for a return include John Calipari, who has been recruiting him to come back for another season, and this weekend Calipari is expected to visit Tshiebwe in Charlotte.

This time next week, there will be a much clearer picture of what Kentucky’s roster will look like and what roles will need to be filled.

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Amidst Fan Frustration, Kentucky Contacts Top Transfer David Jones

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© Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Kentucky has had several players leave this offseason, with more expected to depart as they make their final decisions by the May 31st NBA Draft withdrawal deadline. However, they have yet to add anyone to the roster. With only eight scholarships taken, of the thirteen the NCAA allows, there are spots to be filled.

This has been greeted by plenty of fan frustration. With Kentucky’s freshmen anticipated to arrive on campus at the beginning of June, and the Wildcats set to play in GLBL Jam in Canada in mid-July, things must pick up soon.

With that said, on Wednesday, Kentucky reached out to St. John’s transfer David Jones, who is one of the better wing options remaining in the transfer portal. Other schools that have reached out include Arkansas (obviously), Memphis, UConn, and Xavier.

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Despite being the second leading scorer for the Red Storm (13.2 ppg), Jones entered the portal following the news that Rick Pitino would be taking the head coaching job. Interestingly enough, this is not the first time that Jones has entered the portal or that Kentucky has expressed interest in Jones.

Prior to his time at St. John’s, Kentucky recruited Jones out of high school as a four-star recruit, even bringing him in for an unofficial visit to Lexington back in February 2020. However, Jones ultimately committed to Depaul, where he played for two seasons and averaged 12.5 points and 7.3 rebounds his last season there.

Then last April, Jones entered the portal for the first time and Kentucky again expressed early interest before deciding it wasn’t a fit given the significant roles that Oscar Tshiebwe, Jacob Toppin, Daimion Collins, and Chris Livingston were going to have.

As Kentucky reaches out this time, they do so with roles to be filled on the roster, and the Wildcats could certainly use a 6-foot-6, 210-pound wing with a career average of 12.6 points and 6.5 rebounds.

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