Coming off their first loss of the season to Clemson on Tuesday, the Kentucky Wildcats have a quick turnaround until their next big challenge. The Wildcats travel to Seattle on Thursday to take on the seventh-ranked Gonzaga Bulldogs for a primetime game on Saturday, and what will most likely be their last ranked matchup before conference play.

This will be the third game of the six-year series between the two teams, with the Wildcats still looking for their first win over the Bulldogs. All-time, this will be the fourth meeting between the teams, with Gonzaga holding a 2-1 advantage.

Mark Few, in his 26th season at Gonzaga, returns 68% of a roster that went to a ninth straight Sweet Sixteen last March. That roster continuity is the most of any team in the Top 25.

While they lean a lot on the backcourt of Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman (once a Kentucky commit), who both play more than 30 minutes per game, they have some depth as well, ranking 19th nationally in bench points per game, the most of any team in the Top 25.

Ranked top 20 in KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, one of just six teams, Gonzaga is one of the most well-rounded teams in the country. Kentucky has already beaten one such team in Duke.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Three Point Shooting

Kentucky’s offense is centered around three-point shooting, with Mark Pope looking to shoot 30-35 per game. That’s great when you’re making them, not so much when you aren’t. After shooting greater than 40 percent from three in four of their first five games, the Wildcats have shot less than 28 percent in three straight contests.

On the other side, what Gonzaga does best defensively is defending the three. The Bulldogs rank fourth in opponent three-point percentage. In their one loss this season, West Viriginia made 11 threes on 35 attempts.

Can the Cats shake their slump against one of the best 3P defenses in the country?

Make Free Throws

Free throws are free for a reason, but Kentucky hasn’t been taking full advantage of their opportunities.

Despite shooting the three well and having four to five shooters on the court at all times, the Wildcats are only shooting just above 73 percent on the season. That includes a season-low 61 percent (11-18) against Clemson. If the Wildcats had shot 70-75 percent, that’s an extra two points and the end of the game could have played out much differently.

Gonzaga on the other hand is shooting nearly 83 percent from the charity stripe, the third-best mark in the nation. The worst free throw shooter in the rotation shoots 70 percent.

Tight games can be lost or won at the free-throw line. Kentucky can’t afford to leave points on the board like they have been.

Take Care of the Ball

Kentucky has been fairly good at taking care of the ball thus far this season, averaging just over ten turnovers per game, ranked 53rd nationally. That number is just over Mark Pope’s per-game goal of ten or less.

Against Clemson, the Wildcats turned it over a dozen times, not many of their average, but many of them were unforced, not due to Clemson’s defense.

Of late, the main culprit has been Amari Williams. While he is a skilled passer, the big man has turned it over 11 times over the past three games and has recorded four or more turnovers in four of Kentucky’s eight games this season.

Gonzaga ranks 13th nationally in turnovers (9.4), but in their sole loss to West Virginia, they had a -4 turnover margin.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Ryan Nembhard, 6-0, 180 lbs

• 10.6 PPG
• 10.8 APG (1st nationally, would be 5th best in NCAA history if sustained)
• 45% 3P

G Nolan Hickman 6-2, 190 lbs

• 11.5 PPG
• 46.2% 3P

F Graham Ike 6-9, 250 lbs

• 13.8 PPG
• 6.5 RPG
• 2.4 FPG (four fouls in two straight games)

#4 Kentucky Basketball (7-1) vs. #7 Gonzaga Bulldogs (7-1)

• Time: 10:00 PM ET on December 7th
  Location: Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, WA
  TV Channel: ESPN2
  Announcers: Jon Sciambi and Jimmy Dykes will call the action.
  Online Stream: You can stream the game online using ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
  Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
  Replay: WatchESPN and ESPN network of channels (check local listings).
  Rosters: UK | ZAG
  Stats to Know: UK | ZAG
  KenPom: UK | ZAG
  Team Sheet: UK | ZAG

• Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has yet to release the odds, so please check back later for those. Expectedly, the projections all have Kentucky as the underdog, giving them roughly between 30-40 percent chance at victory: ESPN (40.6%), Bart Torvik (38%) and EvanMiya (34.1%) KenPom (29%).
• Predictions: KenPom and EvanMiya have Kentucky losing by a score of 85-80. Haslametrics and Bart Torvik have the Cats losing by s slightly narrow margin, 84-81. Unfortunately, I think Gonzaga’s depth and three-point defense prevail, and I pick the Bulldogs to win 90-84.

Be sure to send us your Kentucky vs. Gonzaga score predictions! Go CATS!!

Also posted on A Sea of Blue.