Following a dominating “get right” victory over the Vanderbilt Commodores, the Kentucky Wildcats return to Rupp Arena for their next challenge against the Gonzaga Bulldogs this Saturday.
In 2022, the two programs agreed to a six-year series which include two games at Rupp, two games in Spokane, and two neutral site games. After losing the first game of the series last season in Spokane, Kentucky will look to even it out this season. While it is still a quad one opportunity for Kentucky, just barely by four NET ranking spots, it is not the ranked battle that many thought it would be.
Over the last decade, Gonzaga has been one of the winningest programs in college basketball. A lot of that has to do with playing in the WCC, but they are not even leading their league this season, two games back from Saint Mary’s. Over the season, the Bulldogs have just three top 100 NET wins and no quad one wins.
Gonzaga has put themselves as a bubble team, currently on the outside looking in. For Kentucky, this is the type of team that they will play in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. With March just on the horizon, it is a good test.
Let’s dive into the matchup.
Get Back in Transition
Gonzaga likes to play fast and excels in transition, averaging almost 21 points per game in that area. Most of the Bulldog’s transition opportunities don’t come off of turnovers, but off of defensive rebounds and hitting the outlet pass.
While playing fast plays in Kentucky’s favor on offense, they will need to get a few stops on the defensive end. This week Kentucky’s staff and players have talked about the effort needing to be better on the defensive end. Fortunately, sprinting back on defense is pure effort.
Rebounding Battle
Gonzaga is one of the best rebounding teams that Kentucky will face the season, ranked 15th in the country in rebounds per game with nearly 40 per game. Their rebounding helps fuel their offense. As mentioned, they are really good and hitting the outlet pass off of defensive rebounds, but they also crash the offensive glass, grabbing a third of their misses.
Kentucky’s just outrebounded Vanderbilt 44-25, with a team effort. Let’s see if that can carry over to a more talented opponent.
Frontcourt
Kentucky’s frontcourt will be a big factor on both sides of the ball on Saturday. On offense, they will have some looks with Gonzaga’s three-quarter top coverage to deny entry. On defense, they will need to contain Anton Watson and Graham Ike, who combine for more than half of their offensive production.
With three seven-footers and Tre Mitchell, Kentucky has the versatility to throw multiple looks at Gonzaga. You could pull the bigs out with Zvonimir Ivisic or Aaron Bradshaw to create more space on offense, or put in Ugonna Onyenso to anchor the defense and provide a post presence.
Opposing Players to Watch
F Anton Watson 6-8, 228 lbs
- 14.5 PPG
- 7.7 RPG
- 2.6 APG
- 42.4% 3P
G Ryan Nembhard 6-0, 175 lbs
- 12.5 PPG
- 5.8 APG (25th in nation)
- 3.7 RPG
G Nolan Hickman 6-2, 183 lbs
- 13.0 PPG
- 50% of shot attempts have been 3P
- Time: 4:00 PM EST
- Date: February 10th, 2024
- Location: Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center in Lexington, Kentucky.
- TV Channel: SEC Network
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
- Rosters: UK | ZAG
- Stats to Know: UK | ZAG
- KenPom: UK | ZAG
- Team Sheet: UK | ZAG
- Odds: No DraftKings spread just yet, so check back Friday evening. ESPN’s matchup predictor is confident in the Cats, giving them a 70.3% chance of victory. The rest of the projections give Kentucky the edge, but are not as confident. EvanMiya is at 56%, while BartTorvik is at 64%. KenPom sits at 60%
- Predictions: The projections are anticipating a close game. Bart Torvik is picking the Cats to win 87-83. Haslametrics and EvanMiya both have Kentucky winning by just two points, 85-83. KenPom projects an 85-82 victory for Kentucky.
Also published on A Sea of Blue.
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