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Men's Basketball

Kentucky Leave/Stay Predictions Following Player Meetings

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John Calipari says this Kentucky team is playing with "supreme confidence" and he has never had this many players "live in the gym".
IMAGN-USA Today Network

The 2023-24 Kentucky basketball season is over, meaning it is time to prepare for the 2024-25 season. The first step in that is the decision of the current players to leave/return, which they will announce over the coming days and weeks.

John Calipari met with each player last week to discuss their future and their options. Let’s look at where things stand with each of them.

Gone/Likely Gone

Graduates

Kentucky will have two key contributors graduating as fifth-year seniors this season, Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell. Unfortunately, their college careers are over.

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Rob Dillingham

Rob Dillingham came to Kentucky as their 4th highest-ranked recruit last season. Despite some offseason hopes that he could be a two-year player, he has worked and played his into a projected Top 5 pick, and could be Kentucky’s first since De’Aaron Fox in 2017.

Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: High, 100%

Ugonna Onyenso

Ugonna Onyenso entered the transfer portal last season, not really on his own accord. This time it is a little different. He wasn’t sure how he would fit in the lineup coming back from injury. When he did, he had his moments, he was inconsistent.

That said, Oneysno had the second-highest block percentage in the country this season (14.8%). Many schools will pursue a 7-foot, elite shot blocker.

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Prediction: Transfer
Confidence Level: High, 90%

Aaron Bradshaw

For a time, Aaron Bradshaw was the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class. Unfortunately, in his freshman season at Kentucky, there were only flashes of that and by the end was only getting spot minutes.

Bradshaw’s name is no longer featured on NBA Draft Boards and he and those around him are interested in a fresh start. That said, he was one of the emotional players in the locker room after the loss to Oakland.

Prediction: Transfer
Confidence Level: Medium-High, 75%

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Reed Sheppard

A product of London, Kentucky, Reed Sheppard was a McDonald’s All-American and was believed to be a 2-3 year player. Then he went on to have one of the most efficient seasons in program history and won National Freshman of the Year, even surprising himself to an extent.

Sheppard is in a unique situation, being an in-state talent and loving this program, but also being a projected Top 10 pick. The NIL money (estimated $3-$ million) will be there if he returns. However, Sheppard’s draft stock will never be higher and he will be risking A LOT with a return.

Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: Medium-High, 70%

Difficult Decisions

Adou Thiero

Since the end of the season, John Calipari has expressed a desire to get older and more physical. Both characteristics fit Adou Thiero. However, last week Thiero announced that he will be going through the draft process and also entering the transfer portal, keeping all his options open, including a return to Kentucky.

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Thiero has some second-round draft grades, but has first-round potential with another year. That said, the biggest threat is the portal. The staff will attempt to recruit Thiero back, but there are certainly concerns. If Thiero’s goal is the NBA, Kentucky is the best place for him, but NIL and role have to be right.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Low, 40%

DJ Wagner

If you look at the incoming class, it is big and wing-heavy. Kentucky needs to add to its backcourt and a sophomore DJ Wagner is one the best options available.

A former No. 1 recruit, Wagner found his stride in the middle of the season, but after a serious ankle injury that kept him out multiple games, he struggled to regain his rhythm through much of February and March. Calipari noted that he believes that he has 1-2 guards that he hopes to return and Wagner is certainly one of them.

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Wagner has the connections and upside to be drafted, but another year would serve he and his draft stock well.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Low, 50%

Justin Edwards

Justin Edwards was the Wildcat with the highest draft projection going into the season. During Kentucky’s GLOBL Jam trip in July, he looked the part, averaging 14.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG. However, the regular season was filled with struggles until February, where he became one of Kentucky’s biggest contributors.

That stretch of play put Edwards back in the first-round conversation. He will enter the draft process, hoping to get a first-round draft grade. If he does, which is most likely, he will remain in the draft, but if he doesn’t a return is on the table.

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Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: Medium-High, 70%

Zvonimir Ivisic

After a six-month-long battle to get him admitted into Kentucky and eligible to play, Zvonimir Ivisic may have had the best debut in Kentucky basketball history. Being forced to adapt during SEC play, Ivisic certainly took steps forward and started to emerge as Kentucky’s top big towards the end of the season.

Ivisic came to Kentucky intending to play one season before going to the NBA. At 7-2, with great perimeter skills, a team could take him with a second-round pick. However, Ivisic has enjoyed his time in Lexington, and with a full offseason to build on his frame and become accustomed, he could play his way into a lottery pick.

That said, Ivisic has entered the draft process twice already, meaning he cannot test the waters. He has to decide whether to enter or return. Given the terms of Ivisic coming to Kentucky, I lean toward him going to the draft.

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Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: Medium, 60%

Jordan Burks

The former leading scorer at Overtime Elite, Jordan Burks was a great depth piece to add to the roster last summer, with the plan to develop him over 2-3 seasons. While he didn’t receive consistent playing time this season, he had his moments and showed that he can be a valuable player going forward.

Since the season ended on March 21st, Burks has made several posts of his workouts in the practice facility and looks to be preparing for a sophomore season. Given the variables of the incoming class and potential returnees, he could be one to watch for the transfer portal.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Medium, 50%

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Joey Hart

Similar to Burks, Joey Hart is a player who committed to Kentucky, knowing he would be a multi-year guy. What I can say here is, that Calipari wants him to return, and Hart and his family want to be at Kentucky, but it is all dependent on what the roster looks like.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Medium, 60%

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Men's Basketball

Game Day Injury Update: Lamont Butler, Jaxson Robinson Listed as “Probable” Ahead of Road Game at Oklahoma

As the season winds down and March draws closer, Kentucky may finally return two injured starters just in time for the finale.

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Kentucky guard Jaxson Robinson sitting on the bench as they announce the starters at Rupp Arena.
Caleb Bowlin | UK Athletics

Despite Mark Pope resurfacing the concept of Kentucky’s “new season”, in reference to the impact that injuries have had on their roster, after the Alabama game, two of the team’s three absentees appear to be ramping up for a return just one game later.

Both Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson were listed as “Probable” on yesterday’s injury report for the ‘Cats road matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners. Whether or not they’ll actually return, or in what specific manner, is yet to be seen – but the prospect alone is sure to provide a collective sigh of relief to the big blue nation.

Unfortunately, Kerr Kriisa remains “OUT”, although his return may be more complicated considering the oft-discussed potential for a medical redshirt and comeback next season.

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After missing three games with a shoulder injury he originally suffered against Texas A&M, Butler returned to play against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Feb. 8, leading Kentucky to a blowout win at home. Just one game later, he’d exacerbate the same injury issue against the Tennessee Volunteers, and has since been relegated to the sideline.

Robinson hasn’t seen the floor since playing through a hand injury against the Gamecocks, which he suffered in a non-contact incident in practice just days before.

The Final Stretch

While Kentucky has held their own in the toughest conference in the country in their wake, the Wildcats find themselves on the ropes following a blowout loss, with multiple road games and a date with the #1 team in the country still left on the schedule; in short, their probable pair of starting seniors couldn’t come back soon enough.

And the Sooners, at 17-10 overall, 4-10 in the SEC, may provide the perfect opportunity for a (potentially) lower stakes appearance for the both of them.

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You can catch Kentucky vs. Oklahoma at 9:00 p.m. on ESPN tonight. A long-awaited homecoming, albeit away from home, may finally be in the cards for the ‘Cats.

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BB Recruiting

Kentucky Named a Finalist for Five Star, Top 5 NBA Prospect Nate Ament

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2025 top five prospect Nate Ament on his visit to Kentucky.
UK Athletics

Mark Pope has received three top-35 commitments in his first high school recruiting class, including two high 4-star commits in Jasper Johnson and Malachi Moreno.

However, his first top-10 prospect still eludes him after missing out on Caleb Wilson last month… at least for now.

Over the last few weeks, Pope and his staff have focused heavily on top-five prospect Nate Ament.

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Ament, the second-ranked power forward in the 2025 class, cut his list down to five schools earlier this week: Duke, Louisville, Tennessee, Arkansas, and the Kentucky Wildcats.

The 6-foot-9 prospect has visited each of them except Arkansas over the last five months, with a decision expected in the next month or so. Where does each program stand?

According to Joe Tipton of On3, Louisville and Duke have “positioned themselves” the best in this recruitment, giving Pat Kesley and the Cardinals a slight lead. However, there is still time, and one thing that could shake things up the most is NIL, reported to be one of Ament’s biggest priorities.

Elsewhere at On3, Jamie Shaw did his own update, where he said this could be down to a Kentucky vs. Louisville battle.

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“Speaking with sources at this point in time it does sound like there is a split room around Nate Ament with Duke, Louisville, and Kentucky. With the intel I am currently getting, I would not be surprised to see this ultimately come down to a Kentucky and Louisville battle,” Shaw wrote, later adding that a decision could come in the next few weeks.

Ament is fresh off a visit to Kentucky, where he saw Rupp Arena at its best as the Wildcats completed the season sweep of Tennessee. That being his most recent visit, along with Pope visiting for Ament’s Senior night, the hope is it made a lasting impact, but will it be enough?

Time will tell, but the Cats are a legitimate contender to land Ament.

Be sure to read Shaw’s update here.

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Also posted on A Sea of Blue.

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Oklahoma: TV/Streaming Info, Preview, and Betting Odds/Predictions

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Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) fives a teammate.
Jordan Prather | Imagn

Following a tough road loss to Alabama, the Kentucky Wildcats look to bounce back as they travel to Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Sooners started the season 13-0, going undefeated in their non-conference slate, including wins over Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville. However, they’re 4-10 in SEC play, putting them firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A win over a top-20 Kentucky team would certainly bolster their resume following a huge home win over Mississippi State, who Kentucky is battling for SEC Tournament seed positioning.

ESPN currently gives the Sooners a 55% chance of making the Big Dance.

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Led by fourth-year head coach Porter Moser, he is likely coaching for his job, as he has yet to make an NCAA Tournament in Norman.

The Wildcats will be taking on a desperate team with a desperate coach on the road while likely shorthanded. That’s no easy task.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Dominate Rebounding

Averaging less than 33 rebounds per game, Oklahoma is the worst rebounding team in the SEC. For comparison, Kentucky averages more than 39 rebounds per game.

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Head coach Porter Moser explains that the Sooners struggle with rebounding “in the trenches,” which has led to some very lopsided rebound battles. The most notable coming against Texas A&M just a few weeks ago, losing the rebounding battle 44-19. In that game, the Aggies had more offensive rebounds than Oklahoma had total rebounds.

There is no big size difference. It simply comes down to who wants the ball more. Kentucky needs to crash the boards hard.

Fix the Turnovers

What Oklahoma lacks in rebounding, they try to make up for on the defensive end. While not a great defensive team overall, they do turn their opponents over 13 times per game, with nearly eight steals per game.

That defensive havoc has given a lot of teams trouble. Missouri, one of the most efficient offenses in the country, recently turned the ball over 15 times to the Sooners.

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Without a veteran point guard available, Kentucky has turned the ball over 12 or more times in three straight games. They need to try to keep that number under 10 against Oklahoma.

Pound the Paint

Oklahoma defends the 3 very well, ranking in the top 20 in that category, forcing teams into shooting less than 30% from deep. However, they are not great at defending inside, allowing teams to shoot nearly 55% on two-point shots.

Amari Williams has been playing at an elite level, averaging 15 points on 65 percent shooting inside. He is primed to continue that against the Sooners, but Otega Oweh and Andrew Carr need to have big games as well.

If they are taking averaging in the paint, that should open up opportunities from 3. Carr could even slip out to the corner like he did several times against Alabama.

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Opposing Players to Watch

F Jalon Moore 6-7, 215 lbs

  • 17.0 PPG (8th in SEC)
  • 5.7 RPG
  • 38.2% 3P

G Jeremiah Fears 6-4, 182 lbs

  • 15.9 PPG
  • 4.0 APG (8th in SEC)
  • 4.0 RPG

G Duke Miles 6-2, 188 lbs

  • 10.1 PPG
  • 2.1 APG
  • 43.8% 3P

Kentucky Basketball vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Time: 9 PM ET on February 26th, 2025
Location: Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Oklahoma
TV Channel: SEC Network
Online StreamESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | OU
Stats to Know: UK | OU
KenPomUK | OU
Team SheetUK | OU

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 163.5. BartTorvik gives the Cats a 62% chance at Victory. ESPN is at 60.8%, followed by KenPom at 57%. EvanMiya is almost at a coin flip at 51.3%, which is with the expectation that Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson are not available.

PredictionsHaslametrics (83-78) and BartTorvik (85-81) are the models that give Kentucky a two-possession win. KenPom (84-82) and EvanMiya (80-79) pick Kentucky a single bucket. I think the Cats pull out a close one against a desperate Oklahoma team, 84-80.

Send us your Kentucky vs. Oklahoma score predictions in the comments section!

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Go CATS!

Also posted on A Sea of Blue.

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