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Men's Basketball

Kentucky Leave/Stay Predictions Following Player Meetings

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John Calipari says this Kentucky team is playing with "supreme confidence" and he has never had this many players "live in the gym".
IMAGN-USA Today Network

The 2023-24 Kentucky basketball season is over, meaning it is time to prepare for the 2024-25 season. The first step in that is the decision of the current players to leave/return, which they will announce over the coming days and weeks.

John Calipari met with each player last week to discuss their future and their options. Let’s look at where things stand with each of them.

Gone/Likely Gone

Graduates

Kentucky will have two key contributors graduating as fifth-year seniors this season, Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell. Unfortunately, their college careers are over.

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Rob Dillingham

Rob Dillingham came to Kentucky as their 4th highest-ranked recruit last season. Despite some offseason hopes that he could be a two-year player, he has worked and played his into a projected Top 5 pick, and could be Kentucky’s first since De’Aaron Fox in 2017.

Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: High, 100%

Ugonna Onyenso

Ugonna Onyenso entered the transfer portal last season, not really on his own accord. This time it is a little different. He wasn’t sure how he would fit in the lineup coming back from injury. When he did, he had his moments, he was inconsistent.

That said, Oneysno had the second-highest block percentage in the country this season (14.8%). Many schools will pursue a 7-foot, elite shot blocker.

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Prediction: Transfer
Confidence Level: High, 90%

Aaron Bradshaw

For a time, Aaron Bradshaw was the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 class. Unfortunately, in his freshman season at Kentucky, there were only flashes of that and by the end was only getting spot minutes.

Bradshaw’s name is no longer featured on NBA Draft Boards and he and those around him are interested in a fresh start. That said, he was one of the emotional players in the locker room after the loss to Oakland.

Prediction: Transfer
Confidence Level: Medium-High, 75%

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Reed Sheppard

A product of London, Kentucky, Reed Sheppard was a McDonald’s All-American and was believed to be a 2-3 year player. Then he went on to have one of the most efficient seasons in program history and won National Freshman of the Year, even surprising himself to an extent.

Sheppard is in a unique situation, being an in-state talent and loving this program, but also being a projected Top 10 pick. The NIL money (estimated $3-$ million) will be there if he returns. However, Sheppard’s draft stock will never be higher and he will be risking A LOT with a return.

Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: Medium-High, 70%

Difficult Decisions

Adou Thiero

Since the end of the season, John Calipari has expressed a desire to get older and more physical. Both characteristics fit Adou Thiero. However, last week Thiero announced that he will be going through the draft process and also entering the transfer portal, keeping all his options open, including a return to Kentucky.

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Thiero has some second-round draft grades, but has first-round potential with another year. That said, the biggest threat is the portal. The staff will attempt to recruit Thiero back, but there are certainly concerns. If Thiero’s goal is the NBA, Kentucky is the best place for him, but NIL and role have to be right.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Low, 40%

DJ Wagner

If you look at the incoming class, it is big and wing-heavy. Kentucky needs to add to its backcourt and a sophomore DJ Wagner is one the best options available.

A former No. 1 recruit, Wagner found his stride in the middle of the season, but after a serious ankle injury that kept him out multiple games, he struggled to regain his rhythm through much of February and March. Calipari noted that he believes that he has 1-2 guards that he hopes to return and Wagner is certainly one of them.

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Wagner has the connections and upside to be drafted, but another year would serve he and his draft stock well.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Low, 50%

Justin Edwards

Justin Edwards was the Wildcat with the highest draft projection going into the season. During Kentucky’s GLOBL Jam trip in July, he looked the part, averaging 14.5 PPG and 6.5 RPG. However, the regular season was filled with struggles until February, where he became one of Kentucky’s biggest contributors.

That stretch of play put Edwards back in the first-round conversation. He will enter the draft process, hoping to get a first-round draft grade. If he does, which is most likely, he will remain in the draft, but if he doesn’t a return is on the table.

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Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: Medium-High, 70%

Zvonimir Ivisic

After a six-month-long battle to get him admitted into Kentucky and eligible to play, Zvonimir Ivisic may have had the best debut in Kentucky basketball history. Being forced to adapt during SEC play, Ivisic certainly took steps forward and started to emerge as Kentucky’s top big towards the end of the season.

Ivisic came to Kentucky intending to play one season before going to the NBA. At 7-2, with great perimeter skills, a team could take him with a second-round pick. However, Ivisic has enjoyed his time in Lexington, and with a full offseason to build on his frame and become accustomed, he could play his way into a lottery pick.

That said, Ivisic has entered the draft process twice already, meaning he cannot test the waters. He has to decide whether to enter or return. Given the terms of Ivisic coming to Kentucky, I lean toward him going to the draft.

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Prediction: NBA Draft
Confidence Level: Medium, 60%

Jordan Burks

The former leading scorer at Overtime Elite, Jordan Burks was a great depth piece to add to the roster last summer, with the plan to develop him over 2-3 seasons. While he didn’t receive consistent playing time this season, he had his moments and showed that he can be a valuable player going forward.

Since the season ended on March 21st, Burks has made several posts of his workouts in the practice facility and looks to be preparing for a sophomore season. Given the variables of the incoming class and potential returnees, he could be one to watch for the transfer portal.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Medium, 50%

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Joey Hart

Similar to Burks, Joey Hart is a player who committed to Kentucky, knowing he would be a multi-year guy. What I can say here is, that Calipari wants him to return, and Hart and his family want to be at Kentucky, but it is all dependent on what the roster looks like.

Prediction: Stay
Confidence Level: Medium, 60%

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Men's Basketball

Wilson Employee Confirms NCAA Tournament Balls Are Being Overinflated

In spite of the scale and status of March Madness, somehow, the PSI of the ball being used every game remains unregulated.

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A Wilson official Evo NXT game basketball with March Madness,
Kirby Lee | Imagn

According to a Wilson employee, who spoke to a podcast under the Barstool conglomerate, the company’s EVO NXT basketballs are being overinflated.

On the social media show “Pardon My Take”, it was reported that the “cushiony” EVO NXT is being overinflated due to their aforementioned nature. Generally, the host said, the “Evolution” line of Wilson basketballs is inflated to the point of near-maximum, only leaving room for a little bit of “give” when the ball is squeezed.

But with the NXT, due to the increased amount of cushion, the amount of give the ball is capable of is difficult to determine. As a result, the balls are being inflated to maximum capacity to compensate for that discrepancy, leading to inconsistent PSI levels and balls with too much air.

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Of course, this means that players, in the most important stretch in the college basketball season, may be met with a different experience and ball in each subsequent game. This may seem silly, but there are numbers to back it up.

According to Indiana Sports Coverage, who studied the ball in the 2022-23 season, they found that Purdue shot 40% from three on the road with Nike balls, compared to just 23% away from home with the Wilson EVO NXT. A 17% difference.

As unbelievable as it sounds, there is currently no standard PSI level applied in either March Madness or the NCAA as a whole.

Should there be? If it means providing athletes with a consistent basketball that they can get used to – meaning it dribbles, bounces, and deflects the same way in every single game – then absolutely. This sort of mishap seems impossible given the scale of both college basketball and March Madness on the larger sports stage, but then again, is anyone really surprised?

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Troy: TV/Streaming Info, Preview, and Betting Odds/Predictions

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Kentucky guard Otega Oweh dunks the ball in warmups.
Chet White | UK Athletics

March Madness has arrived, my friends!

Just 11 months after taking the Kentucky basketball head coaching job, Mark Pope has not only led the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament but to a 3-seed. However, Kentucky has fallen in the first round as a 3-seed or better in two of the last three seasons, while the program hasn’t been to the second weekend since 2019.

Will Pope earn his first NCAA Tournament win and make a run?

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The first challenger will be the 14-seeded Troy Trojans. Led by sixth-year head coach Scott Cross, Troy is making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2017 and their third ever.

Described as a mid-major version of Texas A&M, the Trojans are a tough-nosed group with some strong defensive and rebounding metrics. They’re exactly the kind of team that can muddy things up and make this an ugly NCAA Tournament game that sees neither team build a big lead while they scratch and claw to the finish.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Win the Rebounding Battle

The Trojans’ strongest straight is their offensive rebounding, ranked fourth nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (37.7%) and eleventh nationally in offensive rebounds per game (11.8).

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Fortunately for the Wildcats, they have seen and beaten several teams that excel in offensive rebounding categories, including Texas A&M (1st), Florida (8th), and Duke (25th).

Kentucky will have a size advantage as Troy’s tallest starter is 6-foot-8. However, they attack the boards as a team. The Wildcats have to be the team that wants it more.

Dictate the Pace

Troy is a team that wants to play at a slow pace and “muck it up,” which has been the recipe for NCAA Tournament upsets in the past. While you’d like to think Kentucky can dominate a 14-seed, this Trojans team will likely keep that from happening.

Troy is a sneaky athletic team, but Kentucky has the size advantage and the talent advantage. Impose your will on an inferior team.

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Or, as Mark Fox tells the team, “Be the hammer, not the nail.”

Win the Turnover Battle

Troy’s second-biggest strength is their ability to generate turnovers, forcing their opponents to turn the ball over more than 13 times per game, with an average of nine steals per game.

However, they also struggle to take care of the ball, coughing the ball up more than 13 times per game on average. Expect this game to be high on the turnover count.

What was once a strength for Kentucky, taking care of the ball has been a challenge as guard injuries have grown over the season. Over the last nine games, Kentucky has turned the ball over an average of 12.5 times per game, including 16 vs. Alabama in the SEC Tournament.

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As powerful as the Wildcat offense is, they cannot afford to give up possessions nor allow a below-average Troy team to get easy looks off turnovers.

Kentucky Wildcats Basketball’s Path to a Final Four

If you look at Kentucky’s bracket, there should not be many complaints.

Of the 1-seeds, Houston is the worst offensively. Of the 2-seeds, Kentucky gets one they know well and have beaten twice in Tennessee. The Vols are still a very dangerous team, but this is still more favorable than having…say, Alabama as the 2-seed.

There are some dangerous double-digit seeds in McNeese and Utah State. However, there are no obvious ‘matchup nightmares’ for Kentucky. Even without Jaxson Robinson, everyone in Kentucky’s region appears to be beatable, which didn’t seem like something we could say if teams like Alabama, Florida, or Auburn were in it.

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Another key advantage is travel. From a geographical standpoint, Milwaukee and Indianapolis are the best sites for fans to travel to and well within manageable drives for Kentucky fans, especially with Coach Pope willing to help with gas money.

Is Kentucky favored to make the Final Four from this region? No. In fact, FanDuel gives Kentucky the fourth-best odds to win it at +1000. Houston (+120) and Tennessee (+370) are obviously ahead, but you may be surprised to see 8-seed Gonzaga with better odds at +800.

Have injuries hurt the ceiling of this roster? Yes. In March, it’s all about giving yourself a chance. Pope and the Cats have a chance to make some noise. And you never know when upsets will open up a region much more than it looks ahead of the Big Dance.

All told, if Kentucky is going to make the Final Four, the path would likely be Troy, Illinois in the Orlando Antigua Bowl, Tennessee Round 3, and a Houston team that’s the likeliest 1-seed to come up short of making the Final Four.

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Daunting, but not impossible.

Opposing Players to Watch

G Tayton Conerway, 6-3, 186 lbs

  • 14.3 PPG
  • 4.8 APG
  • 4.6 RPG
  • Sun Belt Player of the Year

F Myles Rigsby, 6-6, 190 lbs

  • 12.0 PPG
  • 4.0 RPG
  • 45.4% FG

F Thomas Dowd, 6-8, 225 lbs

  • 9.8 PPG
  • 6.8 RPG
  • 1.0 SPG

Kentucky Basketball vs. Troy Trojans

Time: 7:10 PM ET on March 21st
Location: Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin
TV Channel: CBS
Announcers: Kevin Harlan, Dan Bonner, Stan Van Gundy and Lauren Shehadi will call the action.
Live Online Stream: March Madness Live, but accessing that requires a valid login with a cable service. There is a one-hour free trial, however.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: Check local listings on CBS Sports Network and March Madness Live
Rosters: UK | TROY
Stats to Know: UK | TROY
KenPom: UK | TROY
Team Sheet: UK | TROY

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky listed as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 152.5. ESPN gives the Cats an 89% chance to advance. BartTorvik (87%) and KenPom (86%) are close behind, while EvanMiya gives Kentucky a 79.5% chance of getting the W.

Predictions: BartTorvik and Haslametrics both go with an 82-69 win for Kentucky. KenPom has it at 82-70, while EvanMiya has it at 79-70. I believe that the team comes prepared and focused. Mark Pope gets his first NCAA Tournament win, so I’m going with an 84-70 victory, Kentucky!

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Send us your Kentucky vs. Troy predictions in the comments!

And Go CATS!!

Also posted on A Sea of Blue.

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Men's Basketball

Koby Brea Preparing for Last NCAA Tournament, “I’m Ready to Die on the Court”

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Kentucky Wildcats guard Koby Brea (4) celebrates at Rupp Arena.
Jordan Prather | IMAGN

“I’m ready to die on the court next game.”

That was the sentiment shared by Koby Brea following Kentucky’s blowout loss to Alabama and subsequent exit from the SEC Tournament.

The game marked the team’s last before March Madness begins, forcing the Wildcats to sit with their largest loss of the season for what will turn out to be one of their largest breaks between matches, too.

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For Brea, in spite of the pain that comes with a 29-point loss, the focus is on retaining urgency.

We gotta be prepared, every possession is a battle,” he said after the game. “… a great level of intensity every single possession. Not taking any possessions off.”

What’s more, on a team marked by a historical number of seniors, the looming prospect that every game from here on out could be their last lends itself to the team’s energy — and according to Brea, that won’t be the case.

“It’s my last college game… obviously, that’s not gonna be the case… we really have the chance to do something special.”

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Brea and the ‘Cats enter March in an unprecedented manner for the program; not only is the team led by a new coach and stacked with seniors, but in the new era of NIL and transfer portal mania, for many schools, next season is already beginning.

If Kentucky, this Kentucky, is to survive, they’ll have to block out all distractions in what’s already happened and what will happen alike. It’s a matter of being present, maintaining urgency, and doing “something special.”

Their last chance at a run begins this Friday against the Troy Trojans in the Round of 64. Thankfully, if Brea is correct, it won’t be the last time we see these one-of-a-kind ‘Cats play.

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