Coming off a win in another instant classic game against North Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats will have a much easier contest on Thursday as they travel 80 miles west and play the in-state rival Louisville Cardinals, in the KFC Yum Center.
Just 5-6 on the season, the Cardinals have already surpassed their win total from last season (4-28), but the outlook is not hopeful. With just a 9-34 record overall over the last season and a half, Louisville has been one of the worst Power Five teams in the country under the direction of former Kentucky assistant Kenny Payne.
While the on-court product has been bad, even losing two exhibition games to D-II programs, the “extras” have compounded the frustration with things such as:
- Being “tricked” by Indiana’s zone defense.
- A player refusing to play before giving the correct compression tights.
- Lying about a player’s transfer/dismissal.
All this put together displays why all signs point to Payne being fired soon, but as of this article, he is still employed and is still set to coach against Kentucky.
That said, let’s take a look at the matchup.
Keep Them Off the Free Throw Line
Louisville is bad at a lot of things, but there is one thing they are good at and that is drawing fouls and making their free throws. Drawing more than 20 fouls per game and shooting nearly 74 percent on their free throws, the Cardinals score more than 25 percent of their points from the line, the second most of any Power Five team.
Their reliance on free throws makes sense when you consider that they are below 300th in the country in three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage.
Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso will play big parts in the game plan, providing rim protection. However, Louisville will be looking to draw contact and put them in foul trouble. Kentucky’s guards will have to play better on-ball defense as the front line and they must improve their high-screen defense which North Carolina picked apart at the end of the game.
Paint Yum Blue
Following Rupp Arena’s renovations in 2022, which lowered capacity from 23,000 down to 20,500, the Yum Center became the largest arena in the United States by seating capacity designed primarily for basketball at 22,090. However, it has been years since a sell-out and this season attendance has hit a new low.
If you look at tickets sold, you will see numbers between 10,000-12,000, suggesting that the Yum Center is at half attendance. However, in actual tickets scanned, there were just a little over 4,000 against Arkansas State last Tuesday.
With plenty of tickets available, the #PaintYumBlue movement has started on social media. With Big Blue Nation looking to make Thursday’s game a road environment, Louisville season ticket holders are doing their best to capitalize on the interest, selling lower-level tickets for as much as $1,100 dollars. That breaks down to $220 per win.
Louisville is trying to rally their own fans and make it a red-out, but it doesn’t look like that will end well…
Cal Taking it Easy?
During his time at Kentucky, John Calipari is 12-1 against his former assistant coaches with an average margin of victory of 24.6 points, the lone loss coming against Josh Pastner in 2020. While yes, Calipari will want to keep a level of respect, he has never shied away from beating his former assistants handily.
Given that the players understand what this rivalry means to Kentucky fans, i.e. Bradshaw wearing a “Louisville Doesn’t Exist” t-shirt, I expect they will want to win by a big margin too.
- Time: 6:00 pm ET on Thursday, December 21st
- Location: KFC Yum Center in Louisville, Kentucky
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Announcers: Wes Durham and Jimmy Dykes will call the action.
- Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
- Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
- Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
- Rosters: UK | UofL
- Stats to Know: UK | UofL
- KenPom: UK | UofL
Odds: ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Kentucky an overwhelming chance at victory, at 86.4 percent. Bart Torvik and EvanMiya favor the Cats as well, but slightly lower at 84% and 79%.
Predictions: Bart Torvik picks Kentucky to win by double digits, 86-74, but EvanMiya interestingly projects just a 9-point win over one of the worst Power Five teams in the country. Haslametrics projects the largest margin of victory for the Cats, 87-72.
Also published on A Sea of Blue.
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