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Kentucky vs Louisville: TV/Streaming Info, Keys to the Game, and Predictions

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Kentucky Wildcats guard Ashton Hagans throws up L's down after beating the Louisville Cardinals at the KFC Yum Center.
© Matt Stone/Courier Journal

Coming off a win in another instant classic game against North Carolina, the Kentucky Wildcats will have a much easier contest on Thursday as they travel 80 miles west and play the in-state rival Louisville Cardinals, in the KFC Yum Center.

Just 5-6 on the season, the Cardinals have already surpassed their win total from last season (4-28), but the outlook is not hopeful. With just a 9-34 record overall over the last season and a half, Louisville has been one of the worst Power Five teams in the country under the direction of former Kentucky assistant Kenny Payne.

While the on-court product has been bad, even losing two exhibition games to D-II programs, the “extras” have compounded the frustration with things such as:

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  • Being “tricked” by Indiana’s zone defense.
  • A player refusing to play before giving the correct compression tights.
  • Lying about a player’s transfer/dismissal.

All this put together displays why all signs point to Payne being fired soon, but as of this article, he is still employed and is still set to coach against Kentucky.

That said, let’s take a look at the matchup.

Keep Them Off the Free Throw Line

Louisville is bad at a lot of things, but there is one thing they are good at and that is drawing fouls and making their free throws. Drawing more than 20 fouls per game and shooting nearly 74 percent on their free throws, the Cardinals score more than 25 percent of their points from the line, the second most of any Power Five team.

Their reliance on free throws makes sense when you consider that they are below 300th in the country in three-pointers attempted and three-point percentage.

Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso will play big parts in the game plan, providing rim protection. However, Louisville will be looking to draw contact and put them in foul trouble. Kentucky’s guards will have to play better on-ball defense as the front line and they must improve their high-screen defense which North Carolina picked apart at the end of the game.

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Paint Yum Blue

Following Rupp Arena’s renovations in 2022, which lowered capacity from 23,000 down to 20,500, the Yum Center became the largest arena in the United States by seating capacity designed primarily for basketball at 22,090. However, it has been years since a sell-out and this season attendance has hit a new low.

If you look at tickets sold, you will see numbers between 10,000-12,000, suggesting that the Yum Center is at half attendance. However, in actual tickets scanned, there were just a little over 4,000 against Arkansas State last Tuesday.

With plenty of tickets available, the #PaintYumBlue movement has started on social media. With Big Blue Nation looking to make Thursday’s game a road environment, Louisville season ticket holders are doing their best to capitalize on the interest, selling lower-level tickets for as much as $1,100 dollars. That breaks down to $220 per win.

Louisville is trying to rally their own fans and make it a red-out, but it doesn’t look like that will end well…

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Cal Taking it Easy?

During his time at Kentucky, John Calipari is 12-1 against his former assistant coaches with an average margin of victory of 24.6 points, the lone loss coming against Josh Pastner in 2020. While yes, Calipari will want to keep a level of respect, he has never shied away from beating his former assistants handily.

Given that the players understand what this rivalry means to Kentucky fans, i.e. Bradshaw wearing a “Louisville Doesn’t Exist” t-shirt, I expect they will want to win by a big margin too.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals

  • Time: 6:00 pm ET on Thursday, December 21st
  • Location: KFC Yum Center in Louisville, Kentucky
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Announcers: Wes Durham and Jimmy Dykes will call the action.
  • Online Stream: WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
  • Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
  • Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
  • Rosters: UK | UofL
  • Stats to Know: UK | UofL
  • KenPom: UK | UofL

Odds: ESPN’s matchup predictor gives Kentucky an overwhelming chance at victory, at 86.4 percent. Bart Torvik and EvanMiya favor the Cats as well, but slightly lower at 84% and 79%.

PredictionsBart Torvik picks Kentucky to win by double digits, 86-74, but EvanMiya interestingly projects just a 9-point win over one of the worst Power Five teams in the country. Haslametrics projects the largest margin of victory for the Cats, 87-72.

Also published on A Sea of Blue.

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Men's Basketball

National Reporter Matt Norlander Chooses Kentucky as Landing Spot for Star Forward Milan Momcilovic

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Photo via Imagn Images

The Milan Momcilovic sweepstakes is underway, with multiple teams involved in the No. 2 overall transfer player’s recruitment. It is believed that Kentucky and Louisville are the top candidates after his decision to pull out from the 2026 NBA Draft on Wednesday, May 27.

Along with the in-state rivals, Arizona and St. John’s are both very well still in the mix, but the Red Storm are slowly falling out of contention after landing Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou.

On May 28, national reporter Matt Norlander cleared the air on CBS Sports’ Eye On College Basketball podcast, stating that he believes Kentucky will land Momcilovic by the end of the weekend or Monday.

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“My prediction right now is that Milan Momcilovic will go to Kentucky,” Norlander said. “My understanding is that decision is going to come in the next one, two, three days, four days max.”

He would go on to talk about the other top programs involved, stating why he thinks they will be working in an uphill battle in this bidding war.

“My forecast is that it’s Kentucky, but you know, we’ll see if Louisville can get in there,” he continued. “Arizona I don’t think has the money to contend, like I think Kentucky and Louisville just have more money to play with.”

For the worried members of the Big Blue Nation, this is certainly good news to be put out by one of the most trusted college basketball reporters at the national level.

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Going by this report and Adam Zagoria’s from NYT Sports, it shouldn’t be long until a commitment decision for Momcilovic is announced publicly.

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BREAKING: No. 2 Ranked Transfer Milan Momcilovic Removes Name From 2026 NBA Draft

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Kamil Krzaczynski | Imagn Images

Milan Momcilovic has officially removed his named from the 2026 NBA Draft and will return to college for his senior season.

Kentucky leads in his recruitment, followed closely by St. John’s, Louisville and Arizona. A backdoor to Iowa State is also still open.

The No. 2 ranked transfer would be a huge addition to Kentucky’s 2026-27 roster if he committed, averaging 16.9 points per game on 50.6/48.7/87.8 shooting splits last year. Funny enough, in the current world of college athletics that we live in, Momcilovic was responsible for eliminating the Wildcats from the NCAA Tournament, dropping 20 points in the Round of 32.

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He would go on to lose to Tennessee in the Sweet 16 with Iowa State, so at least we know that there’s some inner-hatred for a long-standing rival if he ends up a Wildcat.

He made the most three-point shots in Division I basketball and is a versatile 6-foot-8 wing, which would fit perfectly into Mark Pope’s offensive system. He completed workouts with the Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves during the draft process.

Now, the bidding war for the top dog begins, with some of the most prestigious programs in the sport placing their bets on the star forward.

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BREAKING: Malachi Moreno Set to Return to Kentucky for Sophomore Season

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Tristan Pharis | KY Insider

One of the biggest pieces of the 2026-27 roster has officially made a decision. Malachi Moreno, the Georgetown, Kentucky native, will forgo the 2026 NBA Draft and return to the Wildcats for his sophomore season!

As time went on, Moreno proved through personal workouts and in-gym drills that he could play the game of basketball at the next level, eventually drawing interest from teams slated with the first 20 picks of the draft. The 7-foot big had eyes on him from teams such as the Atlanta Hawks, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and the Boston Celtics.

Ultimately, the former state champion and his camp felt that the deal offered from Mark Pope and his staff was just too sweet, with the idea of developing even further and potentially becoming a lottery pick in next year’s draft making logical sense for both sides.

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In his freshman season, Moreno averaged 7.8 points per game, 6.3 rebounds per game and 1.5 blocks per game, all on 58.2% shooting. As many assume, this was just a trial for what he can become on the court.

Videos circulated on social media of Moreno hitting jump shots from deep range, visibly looking stronger and more confident in his decision making. Although he decided to not participate in the NBA Combine, a strong indicator for his return to college, it would’ve certainly been interesting to see what type of statline he could’ve produced against the league’s future stars.

Nonetheless, Moreno is back in the blue and white for one more go at No. 9 with Pope and his new teammates. This time, he won’t be predicted as the third best center on team, or plagued with the freshman tendencies – he’ll be ready to start at the five from the moment he arrives in Lexington.

No. 24 is back.

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