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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State: TV/Streaming Info, Keys to the Game, and Predictions

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Kentucky Wildcats plays Mississippi State in Rupp Arena on January 17th.
© Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Following a tough defeat in College Station against Texas A&M, the Kentucky Wildcats will return to Lexington to play a tough Mississippi State team. While unranked and suffering some bad losses early this season (Southern, 203rd in KenPom), the Bulldogs are analytically the fifth-best team in the SEC and are a borderline Top 25 team.

The 12-4 Bulldogs recently returned their best player, preseason All-American pick Tolu Smith, and just beat a top-5 Tennessee squad last week. With a full roster, with plenty of experience, they could cause some fits in the SEC. Their defense has been the calling card for this Mississippi State team, ranked 9th in defensive efficiency in KenPom.

Under John Calipari, Mississippi State has only beaten Kentucky once, in the 2021 SEC Tournament. However, of the last four games in the series, two have gone into overtime and the other two have been decided by one possession.

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I expect another close one on Wednesday. Let’s dive into the matchup.

Protect the Paint

If you look at the season stats, it would appear that Mississippi State shoots a fair amount of threes, averaging more than 23 per game, but at just a 32 percent clip, the third lowest in the SEC. However, since Tolu Smith has been added back to the lineup, the Bulldogs are averaging just 16 attempts per game. It is a small sample size, but shows a different offensive approach, and for good reason, Smith is one of the most efficient bigs in the SEC in the paint shooting better than 58 percent from the field.

Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso’s length could prove bothersome to Smith, but they must be smart and stay out of trouble. Even outside of Smith, the duo has shown improved rim protection, specifically Onyenso who had five blocks against Texas A&M, and who is also daring opponents to bring it into the paint. “If you think you can make a basket, if you think you can go get a layup on us, good luck with that,” he said last week.

Let’s also see if the guards have started to embrace the “desperate” mentality Calipari is trying to instill in them and stay in front of the ball.

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Take Advantage of Turnovers

The biggest weakness of this Mississippi State team is their inability to take care of the ball. In fact, averaging more than 13 per game, they are third third-worst team in the SEC in turnovers. These turnovers primarily come from poor entry passes, poor drives, or pressure in the paint. If Kentucky can force the same turnovers the Bulldogs have committed all season, this will allow Kentucky to get some easy transition opportunities and push the pace a bit.

Rebound

It is no coincidence that since Smith has returned, Mississippi State has reached double-digit offensive rebounds in three of the four games, something they had only done in three of the previous twelve games. This is an area that Kentucky has struggled against.

The Wildcats are coming off allowing 25 offensive rebounds to Texas A&M, the most of the John Calipari era. Last Saturday’s performance didn’t fall on any one player, as everyone got outworked for rebounds, but it’s disappointing given this team’s athleticism. Has Onyenso said previewing the matchup, it is an effort thing and the effort must be better.

Opposing Players to Watch

F Tolu Smith, 6-11, 245 lbs

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  • 16.8 PPG (8th in SEC)
  • 6.8 RPG (T-10th in SEC)
  • 58.3% FG (Doesn’t qualify, but would be 2nd in SEC)

G Josh Hubbard, 5-10, 185 lbs

  • 15.1 PPG (15th in SEC)
  • 38.8% 3P
  • WATCH ON/OFF BALL SCREENS!

G Shakeel Moore, 6-1, 190 lbs

  • 8.0 PPG
  • Best perimeter defender, Top 15 in steals in SEC back-to-back seasons.
  • 3rd time playing Kentucky

Kentucky Basketball vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • Date: January 17th, 2024
  • Time: 7:00 pm ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN2
  • Announcers: To be announced.
  • Location: Central Bank Center in Lexington, KY.
  • Online Stream: Stream the game online with WatchESPN and the ESPN app.
  • Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
  • Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
  • Rosters: UK | MISS ST
  • Stats to Know: UK | MISS ST
  • KenPom: UK | MISS ST
  • Team Sheets: UK | MISS ST
  • Odds: DraftKings has yet to release the odds of this game. ESPN’s matchup predictor basically gives the Cats a 3 in 4 chance to win at 73.7%. Both Bart Torvik and EvanMiya are less confident in Kentucky, still projecting them to win at 63% and 65.2% respectively.
  • Predictions: Bart Torvik and Haslametrics are nearly identical in their projections, picking Kentucky to win 80-77 and 81-77. EvanMiya is still picking the Cats but in a slightly less scoring game, 77-73.

Men's Basketball

Game Day Injury Update: Lamont Butler, Jaxson Robinson Listed as “Probable” Ahead of Road Game at Oklahoma

As the season winds down and March draws closer, Kentucky may finally return two injured starters just in time for the finale.

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Kentucky guard Jaxson Robinson sitting on the bench as they announce the starters at Rupp Arena.
Caleb Bowlin | UK Athletics

Despite Mark Pope resurfacing the concept of Kentucky’s “new season”, in reference to the impact that injuries have had on their roster, after the Alabama game, two of the team’s three absentees appear to be ramping up for a return just one game later.

Both Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson were listed as “Probable” on yesterday’s injury report for the ‘Cats road matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners. Whether or not they’ll actually return, or in what specific manner, is yet to be seen – but the prospect alone is sure to provide a collective sigh of relief to the big blue nation.

Unfortunately, Kerr Kriisa remains “OUT”, although his return may be more complicated considering the oft-discussed potential for a medical redshirt and comeback next season.

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After missing three games with a shoulder injury he originally suffered against Texas A&M, Butler returned to play against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Feb. 8, leading Kentucky to a blowout win at home. Just one game later, he’d exacerbate the same injury issue against the Tennessee Volunteers, and has since been relegated to the sideline.

Robinson hasn’t seen the floor since playing through a hand injury against the Gamecocks, which he suffered in a non-contact incident in practice just days before.

The Final Stretch

While Kentucky has held their own in the toughest conference in the country in their wake, the Wildcats find themselves on the ropes following a blowout loss, with multiple road games and a date with the #1 team in the country still left on the schedule; in short, their probable pair of starting seniors couldn’t come back soon enough.

And the Sooners, at 17-10 overall, 4-10 in the SEC, may provide the perfect opportunity for a (potentially) lower stakes appearance for the both of them.

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You can catch Kentucky vs. Oklahoma at 9:00 p.m. on ESPN tonight. A long-awaited homecoming, albeit away from home, may finally be in the cards for the ‘Cats.

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BB Recruiting

Kentucky Named a Finalist for Five Star, Top 5 NBA Prospect Nate Ament

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2025 top five prospect Nate Ament on his visit to Kentucky.
UK Athletics

Mark Pope has received three top-35 commitments in his first high school recruiting class, including two high 4-star commits in Jasper Johnson and Malachi Moreno.

However, his first top-10 prospect still eludes him after missing out on Caleb Wilson last month… at least for now.

Over the last few weeks, Pope and his staff have focused heavily on top-five prospect Nate Ament.

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Ament, the second-ranked power forward in the 2025 class, cut his list down to five schools earlier this week: Duke, Louisville, Tennessee, Arkansas, and the Kentucky Wildcats.

The 6-foot-9 prospect has visited each of them except Arkansas over the last five months, with a decision expected in the next month or so. Where does each program stand?

According to Joe Tipton of On3, Louisville and Duke have “positioned themselves” the best in this recruitment, giving Pat Kesley and the Cardinals a slight lead. However, there is still time, and one thing that could shake things up the most is NIL, reported to be one of Ament’s biggest priorities.

Elsewhere at On3, Jamie Shaw did his own update, where he said this could be down to a Kentucky vs. Louisville battle.

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“Speaking with sources at this point in time it does sound like there is a split room around Nate Ament with Duke, Louisville, and Kentucky. With the intel I am currently getting, I would not be surprised to see this ultimately come down to a Kentucky and Louisville battle,” Shaw wrote, later adding that a decision could come in the next few weeks.

Ament is fresh off a visit to Kentucky, where he saw Rupp Arena at its best as the Wildcats completed the season sweep of Tennessee. That being his most recent visit, along with Pope visiting for Ament’s Senior night, the hope is it made a lasting impact, but will it be enough?

Time will tell, but the Cats are a legitimate contender to land Ament.

Be sure to read Shaw’s update here.

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Also posted on A Sea of Blue.

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Oklahoma: TV/Streaming Info, Preview, and Betting Odds/Predictions

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Kentucky Wildcats guard Otega Oweh (00) fives a teammate.
Jordan Prather | Imagn

Following a tough road loss to Alabama, the Kentucky Wildcats look to bounce back as they travel to Norman to take on the Oklahoma Sooners.

The Sooners started the season 13-0, going undefeated in their non-conference slate, including wins over Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville. However, they’re 4-10 in SEC play, putting them firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble. A win over a top-20 Kentucky team would certainly bolster their resume following a huge home win over Mississippi State, who Kentucky is battling for SEC Tournament seed positioning.

ESPN currently gives the Sooners a 55% chance of making the Big Dance.

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Led by fourth-year head coach Porter Moser, he is likely coaching for his job, as he has yet to make an NCAA Tournament in Norman.

The Wildcats will be taking on a desperate team with a desperate coach on the road while likely shorthanded. That’s no easy task.

Let’s take a look at the matchup.

Dominate Rebounding

Averaging less than 33 rebounds per game, Oklahoma is the worst rebounding team in the SEC. For comparison, Kentucky averages more than 39 rebounds per game.

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Head coach Porter Moser explains that the Sooners struggle with rebounding “in the trenches,” which has led to some very lopsided rebound battles. The most notable coming against Texas A&M just a few weeks ago, losing the rebounding battle 44-19. In that game, the Aggies had more offensive rebounds than Oklahoma had total rebounds.

There is no big size difference. It simply comes down to who wants the ball more. Kentucky needs to crash the boards hard.

Fix the Turnovers

What Oklahoma lacks in rebounding, they try to make up for on the defensive end. While not a great defensive team overall, they do turn their opponents over 13 times per game, with nearly eight steals per game.

That defensive havoc has given a lot of teams trouble. Missouri, one of the most efficient offenses in the country, recently turned the ball over 15 times to the Sooners.

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Without a veteran point guard available, Kentucky has turned the ball over 12 or more times in three straight games. They need to try to keep that number under 10 against Oklahoma.

Pound the Paint

Oklahoma defends the 3 very well, ranking in the top 20 in that category, forcing teams into shooting less than 30% from deep. However, they are not great at defending inside, allowing teams to shoot nearly 55% on two-point shots.

Amari Williams has been playing at an elite level, averaging 15 points on 65 percent shooting inside. He is primed to continue that against the Sooners, but Otega Oweh and Andrew Carr need to have big games as well.

If they are taking averaging in the paint, that should open up opportunities from 3. Carr could even slip out to the corner like he did several times against Alabama.

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Opposing Players to Watch

F Jalon Moore 6-7, 215 lbs

  • 17.0 PPG (8th in SEC)
  • 5.7 RPG
  • 38.2% 3P

G Jeremiah Fears 6-4, 182 lbs

  • 15.9 PPG
  • 4.0 APG (8th in SEC)
  • 4.0 RPG

G Duke Miles 6-2, 188 lbs

  • 10.1 PPG
  • 2.1 APG
  • 43.8% 3P

Kentucky Basketball vs. Oklahoma Sooners

Time: 9 PM ET on February 26th, 2025
Location: Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Oklahoma
TV Channel: SEC Network
Online StreamESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | OU
Stats to Know: UK | OU
KenPomUK | OU
Team SheetUK | OU

Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 1.5 points with an over/under of 163.5. BartTorvik gives the Cats a 62% chance at Victory. ESPN is at 60.8%, followed by KenPom at 57%. EvanMiya is almost at a coin flip at 51.3%, which is with the expectation that Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson are not available.

PredictionsHaslametrics (83-78) and BartTorvik (85-81) are the models that give Kentucky a two-possession win. KenPom (84-82) and EvanMiya (80-79) pick Kentucky a single bucket. I think the Cats pull out a close one against a desperate Oklahoma team, 84-80.

Send us your Kentucky vs. Oklahoma score predictions in the comments section!

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Go CATS!

Also posted on A Sea of Blue.

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