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Kentucky vs. New Mexico State: TV/Streaming Info, Keys to the Game, and Predictions

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Kentucky guard DJ Wagner. The Kentucky Wildcats kick off their season against New Mexico State. Here is the how to watch, things to watch, predictions, and betting odds.
© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

After months of anticipation, Kentucky Wildcats Basketball is finally here as they will kick off the season against the New Mexico State Aggies at Rupp Arena on Monday.

The Aggies have made the NCAA Tournament in four of the last seven seasons, including an upset win over UConn as a 12-seed in 2022. However, most of that success came under Chris Jans, who is now coaching at Mississippi State. Just two years removed from that tournament win, the Aggies are significantly worse.

Last season, New Mexico State suspended the remainder of their season in February over hazing allegations within the team, finishing 9-15. New head coach Jason Hooten has brought in an entirely new roster and staff, but the media predicts a struggling season for the Aggies this season, picking them to finish second to last in Conference USA.

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With that said, here’s what to look for in the opener.

Ball Movement

From the exhibitions, one of the greatest strengths of this Kentucky basketball team has been the ball movement. This has not been something they have particularly excelled at in the last three seasons.

Last year, the Wildcats had an assist rate of 55.1 percent, which was ranked in the top 100. At four games at GLOBL JAM this summer, the Wildcats had an assist rate of 72.5 percent. The most impressive part is that it is not just one player. In their last exhibition against Kentucky State, four players ended the game with 4+ assists.

Given the amount of talent on the roster, this is not a team that will rely on one or two players to score 15+ points per night as Kentucky has in recent seasons. Instead, a number of players could step up at any time given the night and the matchup and “feed the hot hand.”

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Lack of Size

It has been well documented that Kentucky is without all three of their seven-footers, Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso to injury, and Zvonimir Ivisic to the NCAA as he waits for an answer on his eligibility status. That said, the regular season is here, and Kentucky still has to play the games.

New Mexico State has two transfer bigs that the Wildcats will likely see a lot of in Davion Bradford (Wake Forest) and Kaosi Ezeagu (Sam Houston State). Both are upperclassmen with a lot of experience and will likely be relied on a new New Mexico State roster.

Kentucky’s frontcourt will be made up of a committee Tre Mitchell, Adou Thiero, Jordan Burks, and Justin Edwards. Of that group, Mitchell is the only true big man. That said, he is only listed at 6’9.

On the offensive side of the ball, there will be a lot of fin lineups, as seen in the exhibitions. However, the Wildcats will give up a lot on defense and rebounding. To counter that, could we see John Calipari play a zone?

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Nerves

This Kentucky basketball team has eight first-year players. That is eight young men getting to experience college basketball at its highest level for the first time. While they are all talented, they are not immune to nerves.

“I had a couple of freshmen walk up to me before the game like, ‘Yeah bro, I’m kinda nervous,’” Antonio Reeves told the media after Kentucky’s exhibition against Georgetown College. While better prepared, the freshman will be playing their first regular season game at Rupp Arena, with a large season-opening crowd.

Don’t be surprised to see some of the freshmen’s play affected by those nerves. Until they find their footing in the game, Kentucky will lean on veterans Tre Mitchell, Antonio Reeves, and Adou Thiero.

No. 16 Kentucky Wildcats vs. New Mexico State

Time/Date: 8:00 pm ET on Monday, November 6th, 2023
Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Tom Hart and Dan Bradshaw
Online Stream : WatchESPNESPN+, SEC Network+ or ESPN app
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | NMSU

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Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook has Kentucky as an 18-point favorite. ESPN’s matchup predictor was the Wildcats as the overwhelming favorite, giving them an 87.3% chance to win. However, Bart Torvik has Kentucky as an even larger favorite at 96%

PredictionsBart Torvik picks the Wildcats to win convincingly, 83-64, while KenPom is going with an 80-62 win for the home team. Haslametrics is going with an 82-65 victory, Kentucky!

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BB Recruiting

James Madison Transfer Justin McBride to Visit Kentucky on Tuesday

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Kentucky will host James Madison transfer James McBride for a visit on Tuesday, after communicating with Mark Pope and the staff via Zoom video call.
James Madison Athletics

While much of the attention in the transfer portal goes to the top targets, you need to build a full roster. Still with starting spots to be claimed, Kentucky also looking at depth pieces. The most recent, James Madison transfer Justin McBride.

After talking to the staff this week via Zoom video call, McBride is scheduled to take a visit to Lexington on Tuesday.

A three-star transfer, ranked 201st overall according to 247Sports, McBride is being recruited by multiple power conference teams including Baylor and Cal, as well as SEC foes Mississippi State and Ole Miss.

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Out of high school, McBride was a four-star recruit, ranked in the top 150 nationally.

“He is a versatile player who has that IT factor about him. You can tell by the passion he plays with that there is a huge chip on his shoulder,” 247Sports asked program director Vonzell Thomas said as he evaluated McBride out of high school. “What I like about his game is his will to win. He does whatever it takes to win and not every kid has that mentality.”

From Texas, McBride committed to Oklahoma State over the likes of Kansas and Arkansas, where he played alongside former Wildcat Bandon Garrison. There, he appeared in just 24 games, averaging just over five minutes per game.

Seeking a larger role, McBride entered the transfer portal and dropped to the mid-major level, committing to Nevada. With the Wolfpack he nearly tripled both his minutes and production, averaging 7.8 points and 4.2 rebounds in just under 20 minutes per game. His most recent stop, James Madison this past season, McBride had a breakout year, averaging 15.3 points and 5.6 rebounds on 40 percent shooting from deep.

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Entering his senior season, the 6-7, 240 pound McBride is eyeing a jump back to the power conference level, prioritizing fit at his next stop.

Will that be Kentucky?

McBride has good size and athleticism, and has an inside-out style of game. Meaning he can work his away around the paint, but can also space the floor with his shooting, grading fairly well as a catch and shoot guy. Overall, he ranks in the 97th percentile in scoring volume. That said, there is come consistency to be lacked on the defensive side.

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BB Recruiting

Multiple Transfers Meet With Kentucky on Wednesday

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The transfer portal is active, and Zoom stock is going up as college coaches are video chatting around the clock to build their rosters, including Kentucky.

On Wednesday, Mark Pope and the Kentucky staff added three more names to the Zoom list.

Alex Wilkins (Guard, Furman), 4⭐️, 46th-ranked transfer

Class: Sophomore
Physicals: 6-5, 175 lbs
Last season averages: 17.8 PPG, 4.7 APG, 46% FG, 32.8% 3P

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An underrated prospect coming out of high school, Wilkins splashed on the scene this year at Furman. As a freshman, he led his team to the NCAA Tournament, averaging 17.8 points and 4.7 assists and earning second team All-SoCon honors.

There were few players as critical to their team’s success as Wilkins, leading the SoCon in possession usage (34.4%) and shot usage (31.7%). That does lend some explanation to his poor shooting splits and turnover concerns (3.8 turnovers per game).

A quick, wirey guard, Wilkins is a capable scorer at all three levels, and can create for his teammates. However, he needs to add some muscle for power conference competition, and needs to have more consistent effort on the defensive end.

A freshman, those are both correctable things.

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Isaac Celiscar (Forward, Yale), 4⭐️, 84th-ranked transfer

Class: Junior
Physicals: 6-6, 210 lbs
Last season averages: 13.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 3.2 APG, 57.3% FG, 40.7% 3P

Isaac Celiscar is one of the most efficient, versatile players in the transfer portal.

The first takeaway, averaging 13.2 point per game with 57.3 percent shooting, he is extremely efficient on limited opportunities. Shooting nearly 41 percent from deep, he is a threat from deep as well. That efficiency carries over to his passing, as he averages more than three assists per game, on just 1.3 turnovers per game.

Celiscar grades out as a glue-guy with great offensive skills and good feel for the game, but he does have limitations in terms of his athleticism and shot creation.

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Jalen Cox (Guard, Colgate), 3⭐️ , 149th-ranked transfer

Class: Senior
Physicals: 6-3, 180 lbs
Last season averages: 17.9 PPG, 5.3 APG, 5.0 RPG, 52.1% FG, 36.5% 3P

Jalen Cox is the lowest ranked player Kentucky has reached out to, but the Wildcats need depth and Cox is a experienced guard with proven production.

Averaging 17.9 points and 5.3 assists (2.0+ assist-to-turnover ratio) per game on 52 percent shooting from the field, Cox is a versatile and efficient offensive player. He has also multiple conference All-Defense selections too, making him a two way player.

The biggest concern with Cox is his athletic ceiling and how that translates to power conference competition. However an experienced two way player is a great rotation piece.

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Top Five Transfer Paulius Murauskas Moves Up Call, Talks With Kentucky on Wednesday

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Kentucky met with Saint Mary's transfer Paulius Muruaskas, one of the top forwards in the transfer portal, on Wednesday and is looking to schedule a visit for him to come to Lexington.
Saint Mary's Athletics

Mark Pope and the Kentucky Wildcats are as busy as anyone in the transfer portal. On Wednesday, they met with their biggest fish of this transfer portal cycle so far, Paulius Murauskas.

Originally scheduled for Thursday, the Wildcats met with Murauskas via Zoom video call on Wednesday, per source.

Currently ranked 4th overall in 247Sports transfer rankings, the top-ranked forward, Murauskas is the prototypical modern basketball player. Good size at 6-foot-8, 235 pounds, with the ability to create for himself and others, has a good handle, and overall good feel for the game.

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Murauskas started his collegiate career at Arizona after some professional experience in Lithuania. Playing just five minutes per game with the Wildcats as a freshman, Murauskas transferred to Saint Mary’s, where he has flourished and earned All-Conference honors the last two seasons.

This past season, Murauskas averaged 18.4 points and 7.6 rebounds, on 48.2 percent shooting from the field and 33.3 percent from deep. As for his weaknesses, he is not super athletic, and he does need to be more consistent with his shot.

Originally thought to follow former Saint Mary’s head coach Randy Bennett to Arizona State, Murauskas is exploring all options. Following the Zoom, Kentucky is trying to get him on campus for a visit in the near future.

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