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Kentucky vs. New Mexico State: TV/Streaming Info, Keys to the Game, and Predictions

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Kentucky guard DJ Wagner. The Kentucky Wildcats kick off their season against New Mexico State. Here is the how to watch, things to watch, predictions, and betting odds.
© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

After months of anticipation, Kentucky Wildcats Basketball is finally here as they will kick off the season against the New Mexico State Aggies at Rupp Arena on Monday.

The Aggies have made the NCAA Tournament in four of the last seven seasons, including an upset win over UConn as a 12-seed in 2022. However, most of that success came under Chris Jans, who is now coaching at Mississippi State. Just two years removed from that tournament win, the Aggies are significantly worse.

Last season, New Mexico State suspended the remainder of their season in February over hazing allegations within the team, finishing 9-15. New head coach Jason Hooten has brought in an entirely new roster and staff, but the media predicts a struggling season for the Aggies this season, picking them to finish second to last in Conference USA.

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With that said, here’s what to look for in the opener.

Ball Movement

From the exhibitions, one of the greatest strengths of this Kentucky basketball team has been the ball movement. This has not been something they have particularly excelled at in the last three seasons.

Last year, the Wildcats had an assist rate of 55.1 percent, which was ranked in the top 100. At four games at GLOBL JAM this summer, the Wildcats had an assist rate of 72.5 percent. The most impressive part is that it is not just one player. In their last exhibition against Kentucky State, four players ended the game with 4+ assists.

Given the amount of talent on the roster, this is not a team that will rely on one or two players to score 15+ points per night as Kentucky has in recent seasons. Instead, a number of players could step up at any time given the night and the matchup and “feed the hot hand.”

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Lack of Size

It has been well documented that Kentucky is without all three of their seven-footers, Aaron Bradshaw and Ugonna Onyenso to injury, and Zvonimir Ivisic to the NCAA as he waits for an answer on his eligibility status. That said, the regular season is here, and Kentucky still has to play the games.

New Mexico State has two transfer bigs that the Wildcats will likely see a lot of in Davion Bradford (Wake Forest) and Kaosi Ezeagu (Sam Houston State). Both are upperclassmen with a lot of experience and will likely be relied on a new New Mexico State roster.

Kentucky’s frontcourt will be made up of a committee Tre Mitchell, Adou Thiero, Jordan Burks, and Justin Edwards. Of that group, Mitchell is the only true big man. That said, he is only listed at 6’9.

On the offensive side of the ball, there will be a lot of fin lineups, as seen in the exhibitions. However, the Wildcats will give up a lot on defense and rebounding. To counter that, could we see John Calipari play a zone?

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Nerves

This Kentucky basketball team has eight first-year players. That is eight young men getting to experience college basketball at its highest level for the first time. While they are all talented, they are not immune to nerves.

“I had a couple of freshmen walk up to me before the game like, ‘Yeah bro, I’m kinda nervous,’” Antonio Reeves told the media after Kentucky’s exhibition against Georgetown College. While better prepared, the freshman will be playing their first regular season game at Rupp Arena, with a large season-opening crowd.

Don’t be surprised to see some of the freshmen’s play affected by those nerves. Until they find their footing in the game, Kentucky will lean on veterans Tre Mitchell, Antonio Reeves, and Adou Thiero.

No. 16 Kentucky Wildcats vs. New Mexico State

Time/Date: 8:00 pm ET on Monday, November 6th, 2023
Location: Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky
TV Channel: SEC Network
Announcers: Tom Hart and Dan Bradshaw
Online Stream : WatchESPNESPN+, SEC Network+ or ESPN app
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio network call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | NMSU

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Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook has Kentucky as an 18-point favorite. ESPN’s matchup predictor was the Wildcats as the overwhelming favorite, giving them an 87.3% chance to win. However, Bart Torvik has Kentucky as an even larger favorite at 96%

PredictionsBart Torvik picks the Wildcats to win convincingly, 83-64, while KenPom is going with an 80-62 win for the home team. Haslametrics is going with an 82-65 victory, Kentucky!

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Men's Basketball

Tre Mitchell’s Stepfather Gives Injury Update, “Ridiculously Painful”

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Kentucky Wildcats forward Tre Mitchell injury is still "ridiculously painful"
© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Tre Mitchell missed his third-straight game on Saturday, suffering a shoulder injury during the Ole Miss game, while also still trying to recover from a lingering back issue that kept him out two games prior.

His stepfather, Tony Bergeron, was on WPBK-FM on Friday, before Kentucky’s game against Alabama, where he gave an update on Mitchell. “I thought he came back a little too early (against Ole Miss), got hit, and sprained that shoulder like it was a football injury. The problem now is that it is ridiculously painful,” Bergeron said.

On a positive note, this may help Mitchell reach 100 percent. “He needs to just wait until his back is 100 percent,” Bergeron said. It’s clear that Mitchell hadn’t been himself while playing through the back pain, shooting just 35 percent (8-23) over the three games prior to his first DNP.

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With compounded injuries, it is best to just rest and recover fully until making a return. Kentucky will need Mitchell at his best for a post-season run.

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky vs. Mississippi State, Round 2: TV/Streaming Info, Keys to the Game, and Predictions

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After a dominant win over Alabama, the Kentucky Wildcats will take on Mississippi State on the road.
© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

What a win on Saturday for the Kentucky Wildcats, who put up one of the best offensive performances in college basketball this season on Saturday in a 117-95 win over Alabama. Now they will go back on the road to take on a Mississippi State team in a quad-one opportunity.

With Kentucky coming out on top in the first matchup, back in January, Mississippi State will look to even the season series and defend their home court on Tuesday. The Bulldogs are playing some of their best basketball of the season, riding a five-game winning streak, including a twenty-point road victory over LSU, whom Kentucky just lost to.

Let’s look at the matchup.

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Interior Defense

Tolu Smith is arguably the best big man in the SEC. In the first matchup between these two teams, he certainly made his presence felt despite the loss, scoring a season-high 26 points on better than 70 percent shooting.

This time around will be a good test to see how an improved Kentucky defense handles a physical interior player. While improving and reportedly back at practice, Tre Mitchell is unlikely to play on Tuesday, so it will be up to the seven-footers.

Ugonna Onyenso is Kentucky’s most physical big, but Zvonimir Ivisic who just scored a season-high 18 points, gives Kentucky a higher offensive ceiling.

Rebounding Battle

Similar to the stereotypical SEC team, Mississippi State is a physical team that does well on the boards, ranking toward the top of the country in total rebounds, offensive rebounds, and rebound margin. In the first matchup, Kentucky outrebounded the Bulldogs 30-29, that effort will need to be there again Tuesday.

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Josh Hubbard

Mississippi State’s equivalent to Rob Dillingham is Josh Hubbard. The sub-six-foot electric guard is a similar microwave-type player who just won his fifth SEC Freshman of the Week honor this season after scoring 32 points against LSU.

Scoring just three points on 1-11 shooting against Kentucky back in January, Hubbard is motivated to have a better performance. The priority in defending Hubbard is chasing him off the three-point line or pushing him back as more than 64 percent of his shots have been taken from deep. Similar to what Kentucky did to Alabama, make him finish at the rim.

Opposing Players to Watch

F Tolu Smith 6-11, 245 lbs

  • 16.8 PPG (9th in SEC)
  • 8.1 RPG (3rd in SEC)
  • 59.7% FG (1st in SEC)

G Josh Hubbard 5-10, 185 lbs

  • 15.3 PPG (10th in SEC)
  • 76 3PM (1st in SEC)
  • 7.9 3PA per game

G Dashawn Davis 6-1, 190 lbs

  • 6.2 PPG
  • 3.0 APG (17th in SEC)

Kentucky Basketball vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

  • Time: 7 PM ET on February 27th
  • TV Channel: ESPN
  • Announcers: To be announced.
  • Location: Humphrey Coliseum in Starkville, Mississippi.
  • Online Stream: WatchESPN and ESPN app
  • Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens have the UK radio call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
  • Replay: WatchESPN and the SEC Network (check local listings).
  • Rosters: UK | MISS ST
  • Stats to Know: UK | MISS ST
  • KenPom: UK | MISS ST
  • Team Sheets: UK | MISS ST
  • Odds: DraftKings has yet to release the odds for the game, but check back on Monday evening. Despite a convincing win over Alabama, the projections are not in Kentucky’s favor. ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Cats just a 40.9% chance at victory, with Bart Torvik right in line at 41%. EvanMiya and KenPom give Kentucky a slightly higher chance at the win, at 46% and 45% respectively.
  • Predictions: The projections have the game coming down to the wire. Bart Torvik and KenPom have Mississippi State winning by two points, 80-78 and 79-77. Haslametrics and EvanMiya have the Cats winning by just one point, 77-76.

Also published on A Sea of Blue.

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Recap and Takeaways From Kentucky’s Dominating Win Over Alabama

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The Kentucky Wildcats dominated Alabama in a 117-95 win.
© Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

Rupp Arena was rocking on Saturday when Kentucky faced no. 13 Alabama, and the Wildcats matched that same energy in a fun one. The Cats absolutely demolished the Crimson Tide by a score of 117-95, one of the best offensive performances ever.

Justin Edwards had his breakout game, finishing with 28 points on a perfect 10-10 shooting, and 4-4 from deep. Antonio Reeves added 24 points, Zvonimir Ivisic had 18, and Rob Dillingham poured in 16 to lead Kentucky in scoring to go along with an impressive 63% from the field and 54% from three-point range.

Let’s take a look at how the domination happened.

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Justin Edwards Has His Breakout Game

Saturday’s game against Alabama will be known as the Justin Edwards Game. After having a rough season so far going through many mental battles, Edwards finally had his breakout game, and BBN and his teammates were so happy for him. Finishing with a career-high and team-high 28 points, he added 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.

Edwards went a perfect 10-10 from the field, and shot 4-4 from deep. That makes Edwards only one of three players in UK history with at least 10 field goal attempts with no miss.

Kentucky Shows Historic Offensive Performance

The offensive performance on Saturday was one for the ages. Kentucky’s 117 points were the most scored against an AP Top 25 opponent in UK history. Shooting 63% from the field, it was one of the more impressive performances, while also shooting 54% from three-point range.

Kentucky had 5 players in double figures. The assist-to-turnover ratio was top notch, with a 24:10 ratio. It was a performance that will be remembered for a long time

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Three-Point Defense Improves

Kentucky’s defense as a whole wasn’t the best, with allowing 95 points, but the Cats forced 16 turnovers and had 29 points off of them, while also having 7 blocks and 11 steals. The three-point defense was really impressive. Holding a team that attempts nearly 30 three-point attempts per game to just 17 attempts, it was certainly running Alabama off the three-point line. Alabama only made 6 threes on those 17 attempts, shooting 35%.

Making Alabama score in other ways besides three-pointers seemed to be an emphasis for Kentucky. They definitely succeeded at that on Saturday.

Kentucky had their best offensive performance of the season, and one that was against a top-15 opponent, and much needed in the final stretch of the season. Next, Kentucky will head to Mississippi State on Tuesday. Tip-off will be at 7 p.m. and will be televised on ESPN.

Check out the box score and highlight’s from Saturday’s win.

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Box Score

Highlights

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