Fresh off sweeping the season series against the Tennessee Volunteers, the Kentucky Wildcats will now travel to Austin to take on the Texas Longhorns this Saturday. Game time is set for 8 PM ET on ESPN.
This being the Horns’ first year in the SEC, this will be the first conference matchup between the two teams. That said, it will be just the third-ever meeting between the programs. The last came in 1993 in the Maui Invitational (Kentucky won 86-61), followed by the 2014 meeting in the Big 12/SEC Challenge (Kentucky won 63-51).
Picked to finish seventh in the conference, the Longhorns are underperforming compared to expectations. With a 4-8 record, they are currently tied with Georgia for 11th. However, six of their eight losses have come to ranked teams.
In addition, the Longhorns are ranked 33rd by NET and are one of the last projected teams in the latest ESPN Bracketology, so they still have plenty to play for. But to make the field, they’re going to need a big win at some point in the final weeks, and Kentucky is very vulnerable right now with Jaxson Robinson and Lamont Butler almost certain to be out.
Led by Rodney Terry, who is currently in his third season, the Longhorns have one of the most talented freshmen in the country in Tre Johnson, who previously had Kentucky as a finalist. However, the pieces around him have been inconsistent, leading to the team’s inconsistencies.
Kentucky gets everyone’s best shot, though, and needs to prepare for Texas at its best.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Control the Pace
Averaging less than 67 possessions per game, with an average possession length of more than 17 seconds, Texas likes to play at a slower pace.
Kentucky is one of the worst teams in the country in forcing turnovers, but their defensive intensity has picked up in the last two games. That is one area in which they could speed up the game.
However, that will be a difficult task without Lamont Butler spearheading the defense. The more likely scenario is to control the boards.
Texas has only won the rebounding battle in just four of their 12 SEC games, and they have not been a strong rebounding team for the season. The biggest threats that Kentucky will have to watch on the boards are Arthur Kaluma and Kadin Shedrick. However, Kaluma is iffy to play as he battles knee soreness.
Commit to the boards, and Kentucky can play the game at a pace they are comfortable with.
Point Guard Woes
The big story for this Kentucky team over the past several weeks has been injuries. Unfortunately, it has only gotten worse, not better, especially at the point guard position.
After missing three games with a shoulder injury, Lamont Butler returned against South Carolina, only for Jaxson Robinson to suffer a wrist injury in practice the day before. After Robinson reinjured his wrist against the Gamecocks, he is expected to be out for multiple games.
Then, Butler reaggravated his shoulder injury against Tennessee and is also expected to be out multiple games.
While Pope expects to have both of them back in time for March, the Kentucky staff will have to get even more creative with both true points guards out in Butler and Kerr Kriisa, and the stand-in point guard in Robinson out as well.
It will likely be a point guard by committee, with Travis Perry, Otega Oweh, Koby Brea, and Amari Williams all playing their part. Brea is the most interesting case.
On a points-per-possession basis, Brea is the highest-rated high-major player in the country as the pick-and-roll ball handler (1.412 PPP), per synergy. In the last two games, he has eight assists to zero turnovers. He also ran the point for much of Kentucky’s 20-6 run to end Tuesday’s win over a top-five Tennessee squad.
However, this will be the first game where the opponent knows Brea is going to be the lead guard for much of the game. Will he be able to handle an opponent that’s actually game-planned for him to be the primary ball-handler?
Team Effort
When a team is suffering through injuries, players have to step up. That is exactly what has happened for Kentucky over the last month that they have been dealing with injuries.
First, it was Ansley Almonor who stepped up in place of Andrew Carr. Of late, the trio of freshmen has stepped up in their own ways to help the Wildcats.
Trent Noah has a knack for the ball and getting rebounds. He’s also proving himself to be a shooting threat. Travis Perry has taken some point guard duties and is shooting 4/6 from 3 over the last four games, while Collin Chandler is using his athleticism on the defensive end.
This only helps the team in the long run when considering as March nears, providing more depth, but can they sustain the level of production as they are asked to play bigger roles due to injuries?
Opposing Players to Watch
G Tre Johnson 6-6, 190 lbs
- 19.3 PPG (Leads SEC)
- 2.6 APG
- 38.6% 3P (9th in SEC)
- Knee soreness vs Alabama
F Arthur Kaluma 6-7, 225 lbs
- 12.9 PPG
- 7.9 RPG (7th in SEC)
- 39.7% 3P
F Kadin Shedrick 6-11, 231 lbs
Time: 8 PM ET on February 15th
Location: Moody Center in Austin, Texas
TV Channel: ESPN
Announcers: Karl Ravech and Jimmy Dykes will be calling the action.
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | UT
Stats to Know: UK | UT
KenPom: UK | UT
Team Sheet: UK | UT
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Texas -1.5 with an over/under of 157.5. KenPom is the lone site in the Wildcats’ favor, giving them a 52% chance at victory. BartTorvik is nearly a coin flip at 48%, while ESPN is at 44.7%, and EvanMiya is at 39.4%, while DRatings is at 48.5%.
Predictions: While the percentages vary a bit, the score projections are all within one score. Again, KenPom is the sole projection to pick Kentucky, going with an 82-81 win. DRatings (81-80), EvanMiya (81-78), BartTorvik (82-81), and Haslametrics (80-78) are all choosing Texas. Winning a road game in the SEC is tough, especially without a full roster. That said, this Wildcats team is resilient, and I believe they find a way, so I’m going with a 79-73 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your Kentucky vs. Texas score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!
Related
