Kentucky vs. Louisville is one of the best rivalries in college sports, and this year’s chapter in the series is the most anticipated in years.
Facing off on Tuesday night in the KFC Yum! Center, the two teams will face off in the earliest game of the series’ history, and just the second time ever in November.
It will also mark the first time since 2019 that both teams face off in a ranked matchup.
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The Wildcats have won six of the last seven meetings (insert 67 joke), and will look to continue that streak. While the rivalry has been tame as of late, mainly because Louisville has been uncompetitive, this year’s matchup has generated some buzz as both teams enter the matchup as top-15 teams while getting plenty of Final Four buzz.
There’s also been plenty of buzz off the court for additional intrigue in this Bluegrass rivalry showdown.
Mark Pope and Pat Kelsey reportedly got into a verbal altercation outside of Taylen Kinney’s home, and Louisville’s Kasean Pryor told the media, “F**k em (Kentucky)”, leading up to the game.
Talk is cheap, but one team will walk out of Tuesday’s game with bragging rights for the year. It also could be a postseason preview, as both teams look fully capable of making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, so it wouldn’t be shocking if they meet up again in March/April.
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Let’s take a look at the matchup and some things to watch for the Kentucky Wildcats as they take on the Louisville Cardinals.
3-Point Shooting
The early concern for this Kentucky team has been shooting. Through the preseason, the Wildcats never shot better than 31 percent, and in the first half of the season opener, they shot just 2/16 from deep. However, in the last three halves of basketball, Kentucky has shot over 41% from deep.
So, which is the true representation of this team?
The last three halves of basketball for Kentucky have also included having a true point guard running the offense, as Denzel Aberdeen and Jaland Lowe have returned from their respective injuries, allowing other players to play their true roles, and that has certainly made everyone look more comfortable.
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No one else is more than Collin Chandler, who is leading Kentucky in 3-pointers made (8) and percentage (53%).
Mark Pope said multiple times this offseason that this collection of players is a better shooting group than last season, but does not have a shooter of Koby Brea’s caliber. Tuesday against Louisville is a great opportunity to show just that.
In addition, Louisville shoots a heavy volume of 3s, so it’s imperative that Kentucky defend the 3-point line to win.
True Test for Defense
Last season, Kentucky’s defense ranked outside of the top 50. Knowing that they needed improvement to compete in the SEC and for a Final Four, Mark Pope and the staff put a lot of effort into recruiting players who would raise the defensive level of this year’s team.
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Though two regular-season games, that looks to have paid dividends.
Kentucky held Nicholls to 15 points in the first half of the season opener, just three points shy of a Kentucky record, and forced Valparaiso to sub-30% shooting.
However, those performances were against sub-200 KenPom teams. Louisville is currently 3rd in offensive efficiency, and will provide a true test of how good this defense is.
The Cardinals will likely look to attack Jaland Lowe, whom they took advantage of in two conference games last season against Pittsburgh. They need to be sound on second and third defensive rotations, which they have struggled with at times.
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First True Road Game
Tuesday will be Kentucky’s first true road game of the season. Of course, there will be some Kentucky fans, as blue gets in everywhere, but this will be the first time this roster will face adversity in a hostile crowd together.
Mark Pope has commented on Kentucky’s communication, calling for improvement, specifically on the defensive end. They have practiced in Rupp Arena and Historic Memorial Coliseum, simulating crowd noise, but there won’t be a whistle to correct things in the Yum! Center.
The team chemistry will be tested, and this game will provide an ample test in terms of where they are in chemistry and communication.
In what is expected to be a close game, the Wildcats will need to aim to shoot better than 70% from the free-throw line after shooting poorly there in the exhibition season and vs. Nicholls before shooting well vs. Valparaiso.
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Louisville -3.5 with an over/under of 169.5. As far as the metrics, Haslametrics and KenPom believe it will be a coin flip at 51% and 48%. EvanMiya and BartTorvik are both at 31%, and ESPN gives the Wildcats a 23.1% of achieving victory at the Yum! Center.
Predictions: Haslametrics gives the Wildcats a .2 advantage, 78.4-78.2, but KenPom gives Louisville the edge, 83-82. BartTorvik and EvanMiya each project Louisville to win 84-78. Louisville has only beaten Kentucky three times since 2009 and has lost 6 of the last 7. I believe that trend continues, and Kentucky prevails 81-73.
Send us your Kentucky vs. Louisville score predictions in the comments section!
Last offseason, Kentucky was considered a top-10 team and a true title contender, but ended the season as one of the most disappointing teams in the country, winning just one game in the NCAA Tournament.
This offseason, Kentucky is barely cracking the top 15 in most preseason rankings and will look to climb the rankings throughout the season rather than fall.
Still 120+ days out from the start of the regular season, ESPN and CBS Sports have updated their “way-too-early” rankings following Dusty May’s jump from Michigan to the NBA, more player additions for teams, and some early-season-ending injuries.
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The rankings remain fairly static, however, with the Wildcats holding steady in ESPN’s rankings while moving ahead of St. John’s in CBS Sports’ rankings following Donnie Freeman’s Achilles injury.
Momcilovic was the best transfer in the portal, after a season in which he established himself as the best shooter in college basketball. The 6-8 forward withdrew from the NBA draft on the night of the deadline, committing to coach Mark Pope’s team a few days later after also being pursued by Louisville and Arizona. He’s immediately an All-America contender and the most dangerous player on the Wildcats’ roster, after averaging 16.9 points and shooting 48.7% from 3 last season.
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Projected starting lineup
Zoom Diallo (15.7 PPG at Washington) Alex Wilkins (17.8 PPG at Furman) Milan Momcilovic (16.9 PPG at Iowa State) Ousmane N’Diaye (9.8 PPG for Cremona in Serie A) Malachi Moreno (7.8 PPG)
This ranking is based on the Wildcats returning one of the top six scorers — specifically Malachi Moreno — from a team that finished 22-14 and advanced to the second round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament. That core will be joined by a recruiting class highlighted by Iowa State transfer Milan Momcilovic, Washington transfers Zoom Diallo and Franck Kepnang, Washington State transfer Jerone Morton, James Madison transfer Justin McBride, Providence transfer Alex Wilkins, four-star prospect Mason Williams and international prospect Ousmane N’Diaye.
Kentucky basketball has operated this offseason without a full staff. Assistant coaches Alvin Brooks III and Jason Hart left the program back in March, and Mark Pope has only filled one of the two spots since, hiring former NBA All-Star Mo Williams from Jackson State.
Despite that, Kentucky managed to bring in the 3rd ranked transfer class in the country, highlighted by Milan Momcilovic, and have secured a commitment from 2027 five-star Ryan Hampton.
“I like my organization a lot right now. I think this group is functioning at a high level,” Pope said about his staff in an interview with BBN Tonight. “I like the way our staff feels. I like the way we feel in the staff meeting every day. I like the way we’re executing on the road. I like the way we feel on the court right now.”
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With an assistant coach position sitting vacant, Pope is satisfied with how his staff is performing and says there is no urgency in filling the role. Instead, he’s waiting to see how NCAA guidelines and rules unfold in the coming weeks.
“I’m not in desperate need of adding more pieces, although I’m open to the idea,” he said.
“There are going to be a whole host of legal cases from our league testing the CSC and the NCAA on their current guidelines and rules on international players. And depending on what the outcome of those are, it could very much shift the direction we go with hiring.”
Kentucky basketball is wrapping up its third week of practice in an eight-week summer training block. While the players are getting acclimated to Mark Pope’s system and to each other, there is still one roster spot to be filled.
“I am enjoying coaching these guys, but we’re also still really active in recruiting,” Pope said in an interview with BBN Tonight.
One name that Wildcat fans have been keeping a close eye on in recent weeks is Nikola Kusturica, a 17-year-old prospect from Serbia, who is currently playing for FC Barcelona and is a projected lottery pick in the 2028 NBA Draft. His recruitment is down to Kentucky and UCLA, with the latter having the momentum and a decision expected soon.
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Whoever the final roster piece will be, Pope emphasizes that they must fit with the other 14 players on the roster.
“Where we are with our roster, there’s got to be a very uniquely positioned piece that fits,” he said.
“There are several different archetypes of piece that would fit this roster really well, but there’s also a lot of guys who are popping up as available or have been available for a little while who don’t turn out to be the fit that’s going to work for this team.”