Kentucky basketball bounced back with a 47-point win after a loss to Louisville, but that came against Eastern Illinois, a sub-300 team in KenPom. In a game where the Wildcats covered by double digits (-35.5), the bad taste from the defeat at the hands of the Cardinals still remained, especially in light of Jaland Lowe’s latest injury, which could sideline him for the season.
Now, Kentucky has a chance to get its first marquee win of the season as it takes on the Michigan State Spartans in the Champions Classic in New York City on Tuesday.
Historically, Kentucky and Michigan State have played each other incredibly close, and provided some great games, including the 2004 game where Patrick Sparks sent the game into OT with a miraculous 3-pointer. And in 2019, Tyrese Maxey had his coming-out party to help the Cats take down the then-No. 1 Spartans.
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Playing 10 games against each other all time, the average margin of victory is just 6.6 points, with half of the games decided by five points or less. Michigan State does have a 6-4 advantage, and the latest win in the series was beating Kentucky in the Champions Classic 86-77 in 2022.
Tom Izzo’s team is ranked in the top 20 and is 3-0 on the season. They beat a top-15 Arkansas team already but have struggled against San Jose St and Colgate before pulling away late. That said, they will be one of the most physical teams Kentucky plays this season, and it will be important to see how they respond, especially offensively.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Rebounding Battle
One staple of a Tom Izzo team is their ability to rebound, especially on the offensive boards, leading to extra possessions. On the season, the Spartans rank in the top 20 in rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage.
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Mark Pope’s goal is to always limit opponents to 10 offensive rebounds or less. That may be tough to, but the less rebounds the better. Kentucky’s rebounding effort has been a team effort, led by Malachi Moreno so far this year.
The Cats have been a good rebounding team under Mark Pope, but they’ve given up too many offensive rebounds at times. They cannot do that with Michigan State, whose battles fare or those to aid their inefficient offense.
Interior Defense; Force Spartans to Shoot
Tom Izzo is a Hall of Fame coach, but like some other older coaches, he hasn’t exactly embraced modern basketball.
As a team, Michigan State currently ranks 294th in three-point attempt rate and 343rd in 3-point percentage. Individually, they have just two players shooting above 25% from three, one of whom plays less than 15 minutes per game. They shot just 14 3s in their win against Arkansas.
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That leads to their interior scoring, where Michigan State has scored 57% of its points this season, with another 26% coming from the free-throw line. They get that through ball screens and dribble handoffs, creating mismatches.
Kentucky struggled against Louisville’s ball screens, and that has been a focus point in practice. Michigan State will provide an ample test of how much they have improved in a week.
Transition Defense
While Tom Izzo likes his team to get into his half-court sets, he first likes to try to attack in transition.
Mark Pope talked about how “uncharacteristically bad” Kentucky’s transition defense was against Louisville. Against Michigan State, they will need to quickly identify the “rim runner” and communicate through diagonal attacks.
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Kentucky has the horses to run with the Spartans and win the transition battle, perhaps even enough to decide who wins this game, but the Cats will have to play a lot better in this regard than they did in Louisville to get the victory.
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 153.5 points. As for the metrics, ESPN is the friendliest to Kentucky, giving them a 78.2% chance to win. KenPom follows close behind at 73. BartTorvik is substantially lower, giving the Wildcats just a slight edge at 58%. EvanMiya has it at 62.5% in favor of the Cats.
Predictions: Haslametrics has the Cats winning 81-72, KenPom is just slightly closer, going with an 80-73 win. BartTorvik has it as a one-possession game in favor of Kentucky, 76-74. EvanMiya went with a 77-73 UK win. I am taking Mark Pope’s team to make a statement in the Big Apple and come away with an 83-75 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your thoughts and predictions on the game down in the comments section!
Kentucky basketball hasn’t been trending in the right direction whatsoever. After getting blown out on Friday, Dec. 5 to No. 11 Gonzaga and facing criticism from just about every Wildcat fan, it was evident that a change was needed on the court.
Luckily for Mark Pope, they had an easy one against NC Central (3-9) and got themselves back in the win column with dominant fashion.
One bright spot, maybe one that is long overdue for Big Blue Nation to witness, was Otega Oweh’s performance, who had his first 20-point game on the season and finally played to his strengths with full effort and determination.
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Oweh all season has been “lazy” and playing out of his element per se, which has led to speculation that this team “doesn’t like each other” or something more is going on. Visually, the body language and communication has just looked off.
Winning a basketball game can shut all of that up.
Oweh finished the game with 21 points, seven rebounds and four steals, shooting 75% from the field and knocking down three of his four three-point shots.
All night, Oweh showed flashes of his old self, diving for loose balls, putting back missed shots with hard slams and playing stellar defense. This type of play is what earned him the Preseason SEC Player of the Year nod, and finally, his expected production came to light.
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I’d like to highlight these two plays from tonight’s game and compliment Otega Oweh.
His hustle and heart haven’t been apparent until tonight, but these plays show flashes of what we expected him to be.
After the game, the Wildcats’ superstar sounded off about the online chatter with a big smile.
“It ain’t no off the court stuff, it’s all on the court,” Oweh said. “Obviously people going to speculate…we’re the closest group, we all hang out, we all good.”
He also added what he thinks about the team going forward.
“I feel like everything happens for a reason,” Oweh said. “It’s probably going to be one of the most remembered years for all us individually because we’re going to turn it around. It’s going to end up being the best year, but it wasn’t the prettiest start.”
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Do you buy the hype? Do you believe what Oweh is saying? As they say, time will tell. Now, Kentucky (6-4) looks ahead to a must-win matchup with Indiana (8-2) on Saturday, Dec. 13.
That game is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET and will air live on ESPN from Rupp Arena.
After their 35-point loss to the Gonzaga Bulldogs to bookend one of the most disappointing weeks of Kentucky hoops in recent memory, the Wildcats had the weekend to collect themselves before reemerging in front of their home crowd.
In a “gimme” game by all conceivable measures, Kentucky took the North Carolina Central Eagles to task and won by way of a 103-67 final score.
From the jump, one small change had a positive impact on the Cats offense as Coach Pope continues to try and find footing with this roster.
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Emphasis on “Home” Team
After inserting Malachi Moreno and Kam Williams into the starting lineup just games ago, Pope once again made a change in swapping Williams for Trent Noah. The hometown hero got some especial love from the (painfully scarce) crowd in Rupp Arena, and it didn’t take long for him to make his first mark.
Noah was responsible for the Wildcats’ first points in the form of a long range dart to begin the game and, from there, would be a consistent highlight on a team full of ups and downs.
The forward would finish with 11 points, a solid effort that trailed the team-leaders in Johnson (22) and Oweh (21). In addition to another bout at the top of the scoring chart, Oweh lit up social media with a reel-worthy jam.
The preseason SEC Player of the Year is finally starting to look the part for Kentucky and, regardless of their win tonight, will need to keep improving if the battered Cats are to stand a chance in ranked and conference play.
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Coaching Oddities
Yet as Kentucky ran away in expected fashion with the victory, fans couldn’t help but notice a few coaching oddities from Pope on the sideline.
In addition to Noah’s presence in the starting lineup (and a widely noticed drubbing of Brandon Garrison by Pope going into a timeout), both Jaland Lowe and Kam Williams saw no playing time until nearly the halfway point of the second period.
Lowe’s injury aside, their prolonged absences raises questions about what Pope may have seen in practice between the Gonzaga game and now. With the 7-2 Indiana Hoosiers on-deck, it’s easy to wonder how many, if any, of these changes stick.
A Crucial Opportunity
Either way, with an 0-4 record against ranked and recognizable competition, Kentucky is in a dire must-win scenario against the Hoosiers this weekend. A win sees a team potentially replenished and, at least, ever-so-slightly more respected.
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A loss? Well, the Wildcats would be facing much steeper questions than why two players weren’t checked in during the first half.
With thousands of fans eager for a win, the No. 18 ranked Kentucky Wildcats (5-4) packed up and headed down to Nashville, Tennessee for a matchup with No. 11 Gonzaga (8-1) in the Music City Madness event.
Not holding a ranked win this season, Kentucky had an opportunity to knock down one of the top teams in the nation.
Spoiler alert, they did not.
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To start the game, Kentucky was shooting 0-10 from the field (0-7 from deep) and had five turnovers to its name. Although the crowd was nothing but blue and white, it was evident early that the Wildcats were playing a completely different sport.
Denzel Aberdeen would sink a corner three to get the Cats their first made shot of the game, quickly getting another bucket after the offensive board. The Bulldogs would race down the court for a fastbreak bucket, but Brandon Garrison would sink his second three of the season, putting the Wildcats over the double-digit threshold.
With 7:38 remaining in the first half, Kentucky trailed 23-11.
From then on, there really wasn’t much to note from the Wildcats’ effort. The shots weren’t going in, they weren’t physical and the Bulldogs just had their number for 20 minutes.
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After the drought against No. 16 North Carolina in the second half, the last 35 minutes of basketball didn’t look pretty whatsoever for UK – only scoring 41 total points on 8-50 from the field and 4-21 from three.
Although Big Blue Nation saw some airballs and were dead silent for some time, Kentucky was actually putting up a fight out of halftime, only trailing the half 14-11 in the first five minutes.
With a little spark from freshman Jasper Johnson and Aberdeen, the Wildcats would go on a short run just before the halfway mark of the second half, but the Bulldogs stayed persistent.
Both Graham Ike and Braden Huff were having dominant outings up this point, Ike tallying 24 points and 10 rebounds and Huff with 15 points of his own.
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Time dwindled down, the Wildcats couldn’t get consistent defensive stops, and despite a better half scoring, Gonzaga’s huge lead would remain until the final buzzer sounded.
Kentucky ended the game shooting just 16 for 60 from the field, the worst since Jan. 7, 2006 against the Kansas Jayhawks.
Up next, Kentucky will host NC Central (3-7) in a ‘gimme game’ at Rupp Arena. That game will take place on Tuesday, Dec. 9 and will tip at 6:00 p.m. ET. Streaming rights are held by SEC Network.