Kentucky basketball bounced back with a 47-point win after a loss to Louisville, but that came against Eastern Illinois, a sub-300 team in KenPom. In a game where the Wildcats covered by double digits (-35.5), the bad taste from the defeat at the hands of the Cardinals still remained, especially in light of Jaland Lowe’s latest injury, which could sideline him for the season.
Now, Kentucky has a chance to get its first marquee win of the season as it takes on the Michigan State Spartans in the Champions Classic in New York City on Tuesday.
Historically, Kentucky and Michigan State have played each other incredibly close, and provided some great games, including the 2004 game where Patrick Sparks sent the game into OT with a miraculous 3-pointer. And in 2019, Tyrese Maxey had his coming-out party to help the Cats take down the then-No. 1 Spartans.
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Playing 10 games against each other all time, the average margin of victory is just 6.6 points, with half of the games decided by five points or less. Michigan State does have a 6-4 advantage, and the latest win in the series was beating Kentucky in the Champions Classic 86-77 in 2022.
Tom Izzo’s team is ranked in the top 20 and is 3-0 on the season. They beat a top-15 Arkansas team already but have struggled against San Jose St and Colgate before pulling away late. That said, they will be one of the most physical teams Kentucky plays this season, and it will be important to see how they respond, especially offensively.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Rebounding Battle
One staple of a Tom Izzo team is their ability to rebound, especially on the offensive boards, leading to extra possessions. On the season, the Spartans rank in the top 20 in rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage.
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Mark Pope’s goal is to always limit opponents to 10 offensive rebounds or less. That may be tough to, but the less rebounds the better. Kentucky’s rebounding effort has been a team effort, led by Malachi Moreno so far this year.
The Cats have been a good rebounding team under Mark Pope, but they’ve given up too many offensive rebounds at times. They cannot do that with Michigan State, whose battles fare or those to aid their inefficient offense.
Interior Defense; Force Spartans to Shoot
Tom Izzo is a Hall of Fame coach, but like some other older coaches, he hasn’t exactly embraced modern basketball.
As a team, Michigan State currently ranks 294th in three-point attempt rate and 343rd in 3-point percentage. Individually, they have just two players shooting above 25% from three, one of whom plays less than 15 minutes per game. They shot just 14 3s in their win against Arkansas.
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That leads to their interior scoring, where Michigan State has scored 57% of its points this season, with another 26% coming from the free-throw line. They get that through ball screens and dribble handoffs, creating mismatches.
Kentucky struggled against Louisville’s ball screens, and that has been a focus point in practice. Michigan State will provide an ample test of how much they have improved in a week.
Transition Defense
While Tom Izzo likes his team to get into his half-court sets, he first likes to try to attack in transition.
Mark Pope talked about how “uncharacteristically bad” Kentucky’s transition defense was against Louisville. Against Michigan State, they will need to quickly identify the “rim runner” and communicate through diagonal attacks.
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Kentucky has the horses to run with the Spartans and win the transition battle, perhaps even enough to decide who wins this game, but the Cats will have to play a lot better in this regard than they did in Louisville to get the victory.
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 153.5 points. As for the metrics, ESPN is the friendliest to Kentucky, giving them a 78.2% chance to win. KenPom follows close behind at 73. BartTorvik is substantially lower, giving the Wildcats just a slight edge at 58%. EvanMiya has it at 62.5% in favor of the Cats.
Predictions: Haslametrics has the Cats winning 81-72, KenPom is just slightly closer, going with an 80-73 win. BartTorvik has it as a one-possession game in favor of Kentucky, 76-74. EvanMiya went with a 77-73 UK win. I am taking Mark Pope’s team to make a statement in the Big Apple and come away with an 83-75 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your thoughts and predictions on the game down in the comments section!
In today’s world of college sports, it’s not unusual for a top-ranked high school or transfer prospect to be offered a sum of money that can span upwards of several million dollars.
Just this offseason, Kentucky transfer Milan Momcilovic is reported to have a NIL deal worth more than six million dollars with the Wildcats.
This is the current stage of college sports; the most talented players are being paid millions of dollars by programs. While people’s opinions vary, those athletes bring value to the university in terms of exposure and brand recognition.
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Make no mistake, college athletes were getting paid decades ago, just not as transparently as it is today. Former athletes have gone on to infer such things.
Earlier this week, former Duke basketball star Jay Williams made a “black duffle bags” comment during a panel discussion at Front Office Sports’ Asset Class event, appearing alongside former NFL veteran Ndamukong Suh.
The panel interviewer noted, “NIL was a thing and a concept before all of this…” Williams responded, “There’s some black duffel bags…It’s alright; we all participated; he’s (Suh) going to claim that he didn’t.”
Suh then pushed back immediately: “Whoa, whoa, I never participated. I don’t know what y’all did at Duke, but don’t bring that over here to Nebraska.”
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Williams comment has sparked considerable discussion across social media platforms. For years now, there’s been debate over whether programs that have effectively admitted to paying players in the pre-NIL era will ever face real consequences.
It seems unlikely that the NCAA will launch investigations into these allegations, given that the skeletons that would likely be found are now legal, and that there are even consequences that have been overturned.
For example, in 2024, Reggie Bush recently had his Heisman Trophy reinstated after it was taken away due to Bush accepting improper benefits during his playing career at USC. According to ABC News, the reversal was driven by sweeping changes in the college football landscape-most notably the arrival of NIL, which now allows college athletes to be compensated with very minimal regulations.
This raises a very debatable question: Should programs that have been found to paid players in the past face consequences, including vacated wins and stripped championships, or should the cheaters who didn’t get caught get to continue as if nothing happened?
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Programs like Louisville and SMU, and even Kentucky, had to face consequences for giving improper benefits at various points, but other programs have walked free simply due to not being caught.
For years, Big Blue Madness has been one of Lexington’s hottest ticketed events in town. When the number of tickets fans could buy for the event was announced as now cut in half, the immediate social media uproar from fans was palpable.
On Monday, Sept. 14, ticket information for Big Blue Madness was released with a change that took fans by surprise – the household limit for purchasing tickets had been reduced from four to just two. In a change that blindsided fans across Big Blue Nation, many took to social media to express their disappointment with the limit on tickets.
In a quick response by Athletic Director J Batt, BBN’s pleas to reverse the new ticket limit were too loud to ignore; the two-ticket limit had been reversed and was back to the usual four.
Aside from his timely answer to the less-than-stellar response that Kentucky fans had to this change, Batt has proven that he does not take what fans have to say lightly. This joins an already growing list of measures he has taken to ensure the BBN’s voice is heard loud and clear.
“Inside the athletic department, we’re working morning, noon, and night to make sure the game day experience is excellent,” Batt said on the Paul Finebaum Show on Friday, Sept. 11.
In his short time at Kentucky, Batt has already been gaining the support of UK fans by lowering concession prices at Kroger Field, making numerous appearances at fan events and continuing to preach his desire to make Lexington the place to be on game days.
Since its inception in 1982, Big Blue Madness has always been a marquee preseason event for both students and fans alike. The commotion caused by the initial ticket changes was no surprise, proving just how hungry the fans are to get to their seats in Rupp Arena and witness the dawn of a new season.
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Tickets for the treasured event are set to go on sale on Friday, Sept. 18 at 5 p.m. ET. One of college basketball’s most anticipated preseason celebrations is set a little early this year, scheduled for Friday, Oct. 2, at 7 p.m. ET.
After a season filled with ups and downs, on April 6, freshman center Malachi Moreno declared for the 2026 NBA Draft while also maintaining his college eligibility, stating, “If I’m back in college next season, it’ll be right here with Big Blue Nation.”
About two weeks before taking his name out of the draft, Moreno texted his Great Crossing High School coach, Steve Page, saying that if he did decide to pull his name out of the draft, that he would attend Page’s summer basketball camp, per vaughtsviews.com
Fans were curious as to whether Moreno would return. After going through the draft process and receiving multiple higher offers from other programs, he decided to return to Kentucky for his sophomore season.
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Moreno decided to post on social media that he would be attending Page’s summer camp, which ended up getting over 125,000 views. Page states, “My phone was blowing up for the next two to three hours because I got a notification every time someone registered for the camp.” He later on states that because of Moreno, they had their largest camp ever.
The Kentucky native didn’t attend this camp because Page called and asked him to come, he came because he loves giving back to his community and because he knows that there are hundreds of little kids out there that look up to him.
As a kid who grew up just 20 minutes outside of Lexington, Moreno’s love for the state of Kentucky and his team runs incredibly deep. He wasn’t moving around from team to team or school to school. Moreno turned down six figures to go play at Overtime Elite in high school -he simply wanted to stay home where he felt like he belonged.
He made it clear that playing for the Wildcats had been his goal since he was a little kid.
“It was my dream school growing up, and now I can proudly say I am a Kentucky Wildcat. There’s no place like home.” Moreno stated, “It was just a feeling. God put me on this path. So I just chose to follow it.”
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It is evident that there was never a doubt for Moreno and his decision to come back to Kentucky for his sophomore season, despite all the offers he got from different programs. Never was it ever about money for him, but the deep connection he has to the state of Kentucky and the endless support he receives from the fans of the Big Blue Nation.