Kentucky basketball bounced back with a 47-point win after a loss to Louisville, but that came against Eastern Illinois, a sub-300 team in KenPom. In a game where the Wildcats covered by double digits (-35.5), the bad taste from the defeat at the hands of the Cardinals still remained, especially in light of Jaland Lowe’s latest injury, which could sideline him for the season.
Now, Kentucky has a chance to get its first marquee win of the season as it takes on the Michigan State Spartans in the Champions Classic in New York City on Tuesday.
Historically, Kentucky and Michigan State have played each other incredibly close, and provided some great games, including the 2004 game where Patrick Sparks sent the game into OT with a miraculous 3-pointer. And in 2019, Tyrese Maxey had his coming-out party to help the Cats take down the then-No. 1 Spartans.
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Playing 10 games against each other all time, the average margin of victory is just 6.6 points, with half of the games decided by five points or less. Michigan State does have a 6-4 advantage, and the latest win in the series was beating Kentucky in the Champions Classic 86-77 in 2022.
Tom Izzo’s team is ranked in the top 20 and is 3-0 on the season. They beat a top-15 Arkansas team already but have struggled against San Jose St and Colgate before pulling away late. That said, they will be one of the most physical teams Kentucky plays this season, and it will be important to see how they respond, especially offensively.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Rebounding Battle
One staple of a Tom Izzo team is their ability to rebound, especially on the offensive boards, leading to extra possessions. On the season, the Spartans rank in the top 20 in rebounds per game and offensive rebounding percentage.
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Mark Pope’s goal is to always limit opponents to 10 offensive rebounds or less. That may be tough to, but the less rebounds the better. Kentucky’s rebounding effort has been a team effort, led by Malachi Moreno so far this year.
The Cats have been a good rebounding team under Mark Pope, but they’ve given up too many offensive rebounds at times. They cannot do that with Michigan State, whose battles fare or those to aid their inefficient offense.
Interior Defense; Force Spartans to Shoot
Tom Izzo is a Hall of Fame coach, but like some other older coaches, he hasn’t exactly embraced modern basketball.
As a team, Michigan State currently ranks 294th in three-point attempt rate and 343rd in 3-point percentage. Individually, they have just two players shooting above 25% from three, one of whom plays less than 15 minutes per game. They shot just 14 3s in their win against Arkansas.
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That leads to their interior scoring, where Michigan State has scored 57% of its points this season, with another 26% coming from the free-throw line. They get that through ball screens and dribble handoffs, creating mismatches.
Kentucky struggled against Louisville’s ball screens, and that has been a focus point in practice. Michigan State will provide an ample test of how much they have improved in a week.
Transition Defense
While Tom Izzo likes his team to get into his half-court sets, he first likes to try to attack in transition.
Mark Pope talked about how “uncharacteristically bad” Kentucky’s transition defense was against Louisville. Against Michigan State, they will need to quickly identify the “rim runner” and communicate through diagonal attacks.
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Kentucky has the horses to run with the Spartans and win the transition battle, perhaps even enough to decide who wins this game, but the Cats will have to play a lot better in this regard than they did in Louisville to get the victory.
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky favored by 5.5 points with an over/under of 153.5 points. As for the metrics, ESPN is the friendliest to Kentucky, giving them a 78.2% chance to win. KenPom follows close behind at 73. BartTorvik is substantially lower, giving the Wildcats just a slight edge at 58%. EvanMiya has it at 62.5% in favor of the Cats.
Predictions: Haslametrics has the Cats winning 81-72, KenPom is just slightly closer, going with an 80-73 win. BartTorvik has it as a one-possession game in favor of Kentucky, 76-74. EvanMiya went with a 77-73 UK win. I am taking Mark Pope’s team to make a statement in the Big Apple and come away with an 83-75 victory, Kentucky!
Send us your thoughts and predictions on the game down in the comments section!
It’s the heat of the summer, with every member of Kentucky’s basketball roster on campus and gearing up for next season.
Although Kam Williams and Franck Kepnang have been sidelined as a precautionary measure, the rest of the team has been lifting weights, playing pickup and getting adjusted to each other’s game.
Justin McBride Turning Heads
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6-foot-7 forward Justin McBride averaged 15.3 points per game in his junior season with JMU, so when Kentucky picked him up in the offseason, many members of the Big Blue Nation began to share his offensive highlights and build anticipation for his senior year.
McBride saw that and took accountability, with sources confirming with KY Insider that he showed up on campus nearly 15 pounds lighter. This is the healthiest he’s been in his career, and his deadly shooting will be welcomed by a newfound agility and quickness.
Zoom Diallo Taking Leadership Role
As any true point guard should do, Zoom Diallo has taken on the leadership role with a full head of steam, using his voice to rally the team early in the summer.
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Sources confirmed that the 6-foot-6 guard from Washington certainly isn’t shy on the court and goes the extra mile, arriving to practices hours early to staying after for extra work.
New Team, New Intensity
The Kentucky staff is changing the tone of the offseason, with a source telling us that there’s been a physical shift during each practice and workout.
Notably, this gets guys familiar with what the college level is truly like, with Braydon Hawthorne and Mason Williams being two names mentioned as players they’re pressing the envelope on early.
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Talented Youth
While there’s a fair share of experienced guys on this roster, two of the best players on this team are entering their sophomore seasons.
Alex Wilkins and Malachi Moreno have been showing off so far, sources confirmed, with Moreno being simply unbelievable down low and Wilkins showing that he’s not going to be passive with his decision making.
With Kepnang out for the summer as a precaution, the staff is excited to see him match Moreno’s intensity given his college experience. Wilkins has proved his dual-threat ability is real, allowing him to score from anywhere and make plays alongside Diallo.
Just when many believed Kentucky’s roster was complete in terms of contributing players, Mark Pope might have an ace up his sleeve.
Last week, it was reported that Kentucky was among the frontrunners to land 6-foot-8 Serbian wing Nikola Kusturica. At the time, Gonzaga was thought to be the team to beat, having a more defined role to offer, compared to Kentucky, who has one remaining roster spot and a good amount of depth in wing positions.
Since then, things have shifted in a big way.
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Gonzaga received a commitment from 18-year-old French guard Juwan Ekanga-Ehawa on Sunday. By Tuesday night, the Wildcats received a Crystal Ball prediction from 247Sports’ Travis Branham to land Kusturica, with a confidence level of 7 out of 10.
The 6-foot-8 wing currently plays for FC Barcelona in Spain’s Liga ACB and EuroLeague system. He just turned 17 years old and is reportedly seeking a two-year college opportunity before becoming draft-eligible in 2028, where he is already being projected as a lottery pick.
The on-court résumé speaks for itself. In the 2025 FIBA U16 EuroBasket, he averaged 20 points, 7.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game while leading Serbia to a championship and was named tournament MVP. He also helped Barcelona capture the Adidas NextGen Finals championship last month, posting 20 points and 10 rebounds in the title game against Real Madrid.
Next, Kusturica will represent Serbia in the FIBA U17 World Cup from June 27 to July 5, and a college decision could come before then.
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Mark Pope is carrying a lot of momentum in recent weeks after retaining Malachi Moreno and adding Milan Momcilovic to this season’s roster, as well as landing the first top 10 prospect of his career in Ryan Hampton. If he can close on Kusturica, that would cap off the roster in a significant way and continue to change the narrative around his recruiting ability.
Since players have arrived on campus and began facing off against each other, we’ve seen multiple pictures and videos of the team surface across social media.
From Milan Momcilovic sparking threes from deep, to Braydon Hawthorne showing us his playmaking abilities, members of the Big Blue Nation have been watching, reposting and expressing their animosity for the upcoming season.
However, the same questions have circled throughout the comments. Where is Kam Williams? Where is Franck Kepnang?
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In the most calming way possible, KY Insider can confirm that Williams and Kepnang will both be out during summer workouts as a precautionary measure for previous injuries. KSR’s Jack Pilgrim had the news first, with Williams confirmed to be back in his boot.
Williams, who broke his foot in February, is eyeing an 100% recovery before he begins scrimmaging. His summer training has been minimal and the team is taking the most kindest form of rest so re-injury becomes less likely during the 2026-27 season.
Kepnang has had a long list of leg and knee injuries throughout his collegiate career thus far, causing him to miss the half of four seasons from 2020-21 through 2024-25. Hoping for a productive seventh year of college basketball and with a severe past, load management is the common and smart move given his situation.
Again, both are precautious actions and no new injuries have occurred.
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Mark Pope and the rest of the team are having fun, the vibes are good and they will get Williams and Kepnang up to speed when the time is right.