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Keys to Kentucky Football’s Last Three Games

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UK Athletics

The Kentucky football team has had a rollercoaster of a season, from the win at Florida to push Kentucky into the AP Top 10, to the brutal home loss to South Carolina.

Entering the season, most expected Kentucky to finish 9-3, and if the Wildcats had waited a half-second at the end of the Ole Miss game and Will Levis had played against South Carolina, they would have had a great chance to do that.

With three games remaining on the schedule and sitting at 6-3, Kentucky could still do that. However, with No. 1 Georgia sill left to play, the Wildcats would have to pull a major upset.

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If Kentucky were to win the next three games and the bowl game, they could still still win 10 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time in program history.

Let’s examine the matchups and see the keys for Kentucky’s success.

Vanderbilt: Start Fast and Don’t Overlook

Winless in the SEC since 2019, Vanderbilt is not a good football team. However, in their last two games the Commodores have played Missouri and South Carolina close. If Kentucky isn’t prepared (i.e. South Carolina), Vanderbilt could catch them off guard.

With a defense that is ranked last in the SEC, Vandy has given up a ton of points this season, giving up nearly 37 points and over 300 yards in offense to be exact. On the other hand, Kentucky has also struggled to put up points – even against mediocre defenses – scoring just 23.6 points per game, which is even less than Vanderbilt’s average of 26.7.

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Getting off to a fast start can put this game away early with the strength of Kentucky’s defense.

If Kentucky can get a 2-3 possession lead by halftime, it would help immensely to boost the offense’s confidence just in time for Georgia’s top ranked defense to come to Lexington next week.

Georgia: Make Them Earn It

Georgia is the best team in the country and they proved it last week against Tennessee.

The most important thing about this game is to force the Bulldogs to earn their victory at Kroger field and not giving it to them via turnovers, special teams miscues, etc.

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The Kentucky defense will have one their toughest challenges of the year and will have to make Georgia fight for every point. On the other hand, if the Kentucky offense can move the ball it will take a lot of pressure off of Brad White and the defense.

Kirby Smart and Co are looking to come into this game and assert their will, but the Wildcats will have to let them know that this game won’t be an easy one.

Louisville: Control the Line of Scrimmage

In the last three meetings against the Cardinals, Kentucky has outscored them 153-44. One of the biggest reason why is that they have controlled the line of scrimmage.

It has been taken for granted that Kentucky has had several NFL-level players on the offensive and defensive lines, but the roster turnover has finally caught up with the team, especially on the offensive line.

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The offensive line specifically, has been strong enough to help the Kentucky offense for an average of 491 yards in the last three meetings. In this season’s matchup, they will have to take a step up for Will Levis and Co to get close to that number.

With that said, this an improved Louisville team, who in the second half of the season, have improved their performance, primarily due to a stingy defense that is currently ranked top-20 in scoring defense.

Knowing that, it looks like this year’s Governor’s Cup will be closer than recent years. Again, this is a game that Kentucky should win, but it will come down to controlling the line of scrimmage.

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Football

Jamon Dumas-Johnson: A NFL Draft Steal

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Kentucky Wildcats linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson (2) makes the sign of the cross while taking a knee before the game.
Carter Skaggs | Imagn

Before he transferred to Kentucky, Jamon Dumas-Johnson was an All-American at Georgia, with waves to at least test the NFL draft after winning a National Championship. However, with the decision to play his last collegiate season as a Wildcat, Dumas-Johnson was a cornerstone piece for the Kentucky defense, finishing the season with 7.5 tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks during his 11 starts for the team. 

His athleticism spoke volumes at Kentucky football’s NFL pro day, where current NFL draft boards now list the linebacker as one of the best athletes at the position and has earned himself a “top 10” feel ahead of the draft. Before pro day, publications such as Bleacher Report had him listed as No. 13 at his position. 

Dumas-Johnson proved himself with the highest vertical jump (37.5) and the longest broad jump (10.60) out of the Wildcats who competed in said events, and ran an impressive best 4.50 40-yard dash. At 245 pounds, he also managed to press 16 reps of 225, which could technically be “better” compared to NFL standards, but is impressive nonetheless in hindsight.

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At 23 years old, this linebacker exploits explosiveness, agility and can hawk down any playmaker on the field. Out the 31 NFL teams that attended the event (a Cleveland Browns representative did not attend), one will be getting a prize steal of the draft with Dumas-Johnson. 

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Alex Raynor: A Rare Gem In This Year’s NFL Draft

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Kentucky Wildcats place kicker Alex Raynor (16) lines up a kick.
Jordan Prather | Imagn

Alex Raynor had an illustrious season for Kentucky last year, being named to First-Team All-SEC, as a finalist for the Lou Groza award and as SEC Special Teams Player of the Year.

As the record holder for the longest field goal in program history, and arguably one of, if not the, most consistent kickers to ever be a Wildcat, Raynor now looks to the NFL Draft in the next chapter of his book. 

Recently, at Kentucky football’s NFL Pro Day on Tuesday, March 11, Raynor kicked off the event with his workout. 

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Although he would miss a routine kick for him inside of the 45, he would continue to move back, nailing a 55-yard kick and nearly making a 60-yard kick. 

The best moments of his workout came when Raynor would line up behind the UK logo inside of Nutter Field House and would nail a 65-yard field goal.

That, although it’s an indoor kick and is not faced with the NFL pressure, would be one of the longest field goals in NFL history. 

Historically, it’s extremely rare for kickers to be drafted any higher than the 6th, more commonly going in the late rounds on the third day. 

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However, Raynor would hold as one of the rare occasions to go higher than projected, due to his historic year as a Wildcat.

Wherever the young man from Georgia ends up in the pros, don’t be surprised if you hear his name every reoccurring Sunday.

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The State of Kentucky Football

Following their worst season in nearly a decade, Kentucky Football faces a steep rebuild and rising expectations.

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Kentucky football coach Mark Stoops has been linked to the Texas A&M job.
Chet White | UK Athletics

After charting a 4-8 record in the 2023-24 season, including a 1-7, second-to-last finish in the SEC, Kentucky Football looks lost for the first time in a long time.

It can be argued that the program never really broke through to the “higher echelon” of college football in the first place, but even then, they’ve been consistently better than they were historically known to be. Until now.

With that aforementioned .333 record, the Cats weren’t able to earn a bowl game. That marks the first time since the 2015 season that Kentucky Football won’t appear in postseason competition, and, excluding the 2020 season (for COVID-related reasons,) it’s also the only time the Wildcats have finished under .500 since then.

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What about the last time the team had less than five wins? 2013, in Stoops’ first season. The deeper you dig, the worse it appears.

Losing to Louisville in blowout fashion at the end of last month felt like the straw that broke the Cats’ back. It was clear that whatever would happen next wouldn’t be simply transitional, and thus far, the early offseason has evidenced that.

The Big Move

It began with an exodus. Star wideout Barion Brown elected to transfer to LSU for his senior season. His receiver running mate, Dane Key, left for Nebraska. In addition to the team’s two primary deep threats, Chip Trayanum, the promising back and former Buckeye who spent much of this year battling injuries, took his talents to Toledo.

In total, the Cats have lost nearly two dozen players to the transfer portal, and that’s not even counting the guys headed to the NFL draft (like Deone Walker and Maxwell Hairston,) as well as the graduates.

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To put it bluntly, next year’s team will share little more with the players from this past season than the blue and white on their jerseys. It’s a brutal overhaul, though one Coach Stoops and his staff are trying to get the jump on, to their credit.

Fresh Faces

Among a growing list of incoming transfers, a few names in particular stand out. Chief among them is Zach Calzada, a quarterback whose upcoming season at Kentucky will mark his fifth year playing football in his third different jersey.

The journeyman spent this past season at Incarnate Word, where he threw for 35 touchdowns and only nine interceptions. He completed 344 passes on the year, almost doubling that of his previous two. 

Before his two-year stint at IW, Calzada spent the beginnings of his college career at Texas A&M where, among a mixture of steadily improving statistics, he led the Aggies to an impressive home win over the still Saban-led Alabama Crimson Tide. Whether or not his recent success in the Southland Conference will translate back to the SEC is yet to be seen, but, at least on paper, this pickup makes sense for Kentucky following a year of unsparing QB play across the board.

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Along with Calzada, the Cats have hauled in J.J. Hester, a 6 ‘4 senior receiver from Oklahoma, Dante Dowdell, a power back coming off a 12-touchdown season for Nebraska, and Sam Greene, a defensive end transferring in from USC, among a handful of others. We’ll have a team. 

Though, even considering the roster turnover, that wasn’t the question. That still remains, “what will that team do?”

Potential vs. Progress

Kentucky is 18-25 in their last three seasons of football; a steady decline that has been made worse by the fact that the program’s outlier 10-3 finish in the 2021 season has since been disqualified by the NCAA due to a rule violation. All in all, the last half-decade has been, at best, barely getting by.

How long will this trend continue? The only thing we know for sure is that nobody is sure. Answering that question requires the analysis and knowing of many moving parts, not all of which are at widespread disposal.

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But this much is clear: the longtime variable nature of Kentucky Football came to a head this year, and the product we’re about to see is going to have to be radically different from the one we’ve just seen in order to right this ship.

For better or worse, the 2024-25 season will likely go down as the most important yet in the Stoops era at UK.

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