Kentucky will take on Houston on Friday, in a battle of the logos.

The Cougars are enjoying their best season since the 1980’s and the “Phi Slamma Jamma” days. This Houston team is much different than the one that featured two Hall of Famers, Clyde Drexler and Hakeem Olujuwan.

Instead this Houston team is undersized, gritty, and tough and will make their opponents fight for everything. Houston takes pride in their defense, as they rank No. 12 in defensive efficiency and is No. 1 in the country in opponent field goal percentage. Houston is a good team, but they have one big knock. The Cougars only have 1 win over a KenPom top-25 team, that win coming back in December against LSU at Houston.

This will be a gritty, tough it out type of game, let’s look at Kentucky needs to do give themselves the best chance to win.

PJ Washington

The Big Blue Nation got a well needed shot of good news when PJ Washington tweeted this video on Wednesday.

To me, when Calipiari retweeted PJ with an “uh oh”, it confirmed that PJ will return against Houston. It doesn’t make any sense to set the team and the fans up for something that’s not going to happen.

In today’s press conference PJ told reporters, “It’s good, I feel good. It’s about going out there and seeing if I can do stuff on the court”. PJ participated in today’s practice, and while the media was sent to the back during the Wildcat’s contact drills, they were able to catch this video.

Calipari went on to tell reporters that doctors told PJ that he can’t further injure himself by playing. Cal said, “If that were the case. I wouldn’t let him play”.

While there are still some question marks, I would be shocked if PJ didn’t play on Friday.

Efficient Offense and Good Shot Selection

Against Wofford, Kentucky simply failed to execute well on offense for a majority of the game. Kentucky will be facing a much stingier Houston defense Friday night.

Kentucky is Top 25 in offensive efficiency and field goal percentage, and the Cats will need to display that. If PJ is on the floor this is a much easier task as he is able to space the floor and provide scoring that Kentucky didn’t have the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Tyler Herro will have a tough defensive assignment against Houston’s Corey Davis, the Cougar’s leading scorer. Unless he can match that defensive effort and hold Davis to single digits, Kentucky can’t afford for Herro to shoot 2-11 again. There were too many times against Wofford that Kentucky just settled. While Cal will want to take advantage of Kentucky’s size advantage, Kentucky’s guard will need to produce more offense.

Guard Play

I am a firm believer in that this game will be decided by the guard play.

Houston has one of the best backcourts in the country with Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks. Davis and Brooks combine for an average of 30 points and both have made over 100 three pointers with over 38% 3P.

So far in the tournament Davis has averaged 23.5 points, 40.5% FG, 39% 3P. While Davis isn’t shooting a great percentage from the field, most of his attempts are from three and he made seven

It’s not just Davis and Brooks, one of Houston’s biggest strengths is their depth, especially on the perimeter. Houston’s guards account for 75% of their points, meaning Kentucky’s guards will have to stay in front because of their quickness and stay home because of their shooting ability.

On the other hand, Kentucky’s guards haven’t played their best basketball in the NCAA tournament and they will need to step up.

One bright spot has been Ashton Hagans. Hagans biggest knock has been his turnover rate, which has improved in NCAA Tournament play averaging only 1.5 turnovers in addition to 8 points, 4 assists, 4.5 rebounds, and 1 steal. Not to mention, Jemarl Baker, who will likely see some more playing time and provide some shooting and defense.

If the Wildcat guards can outplay the Houston guards, Kentucky’s chances to win look a lot better.

Rebounding

John Calipari’s Kentucky teams have always been strong on the boards, and this year is no different. Kentucky is ranked 35th in both offensive and defensive rebounds per game.

It’s not often that Kentucky faces a team just as good on the boards, but they will again on Friday.

Houston ranks top 20 in both offensive and defensive rebounds per game and are as tough and gritty as any team Kentucky has played this season. However, they aren’t as good as keeping their opponents off the board ranking over 200th in the country in all rebounding categories.

If Houston’s defense is able to limit Kentucky on offense, the Cats will need to crash the boards with a purpose and give themselves extra opportunities. With the size advantage, the Cats have no excuse not to capitalize.

Prediction

While the Cougars don’t shoot great from outside, they shoot A LOT from outside. If the Cats don’t show up ready to play or the Cougars are lighting it up from outside, Kentucky could be in trouble.

However, Kentucky will have a substantial size advantage at every position, and will need to use that to their advantage on both ends of the floor. With PJ back in the lineup, I expect for Kentucky to have a much better offensive night. At this point in the season, the Cats are simply more battle tested than Houston.

According to Houston’s Breaon Brady, Kentucky is “just another team. Everybody is hyping Kentucky, and we love that”. I anticipate the Cats to respond on the court and show that they are more than just “another team”.

Kentucky: 76

Houston:69