For the first time this season, the Kentucky Wildcats have lost back-to-back games. On Tuesday, they will travel to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers, playing to avoid a third-straight loss.
The Volunteers are also coming off a tough road loss, losing by two points to No. 1 Auburn, missing a late 3-pointer to give them the win. However, they have played their best at home, similar to Kentucky, winning their three SEC home games by an average of 18 points.
This Tennessee team is the typical, talented Rick Barnes squad of late. They rank first in defensive efficiency but struggle on offense at times and play at a conservative pace. A stark contrast to Kentucky.
This game will be big for the SEC race, especially for Kentucky, who, after losing two straight, are sitting in 10th place. If they can pull off the upset, it would be big to get them back into the hunt for a top-four finish in the conference and double-bye in the SEC Tournament.
Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Slow Down Chaz Lanier
Similar to last season, Tennessee’s offense is centered around one player. Instead of Dalton Knecht, it is now Chaz Lanier, who was a Kentucky target in the portal last offseason.
Lanier is averaging 18 points per game going into Tuesday’s contest and has scored in double figures in all but two games this season. In the Volunteers’ three losses, Lanier’s averages fall to 12.3 PPG on 31% shooting.
He will look to get most of his points from the 3-point line but is confident in his mid-range jumper and can slip to the basket if overplayed.
Slow down Lanier, and Kentucky will give themselves the best shot at the upset.
Pace
Tennessee plays at the slowest pace in the SEC and one of the slowest in the country. That is in stark contrast to Kentucky’s style, which is amongst the fastest in the country.
Slow paces have given Kentucky fits this season (i.e. Clemson), as they have been unable to speed up teams. They have been improving on the boards, which can help them to do that, but they need to generate more turnovers. In SEC play, opponents are turning the ball less than nine times per game.
Kentucky has won 14 of their 15 games where they have scored 70 or more points. Tennessee is holding their opponents to just 62 points in SEC play. Which side will prevail?
Fatigue and Health
Fatigue and injuries are starting to catch up to this Kentucky team.
Andrew Carr missed the Vandy game and will be out for the near future, but there are also players playing through injuries. Lamont Butler is dealing with a shoulder injury. Brandon Garrison and Jaxson Robinson have been dealing with small issues over the last few weeks. This has certainly hurt the depth, which is why Trent Noah and Collin Chandler have seen higher-than-normal minutes.
Even with a week off, Kentucky did not look 100% against Vanderbilt. That said, that is no excuse for the lack of effort at times. They are going to have to battle through that against the no. 1 defense in the nation.
Opposing Players to Watch
G Chaz Lanier, 6-4, 199 lbs
- 18.0 PPG (4th in SEC)
- 42.3% 3P (4th in SEC)
- 3.6 3PM per game
G Zakai Zeigler, 5-9, 171 pounds
- 12.3 PPG
- 7.5 APG (1st in SEC, 5th nationally)
- 2.1 SPG (5th in SEC)
F Igor Milicic, 6-10, 225 lbs
- 10.0 PPG
- 8.1 RPG (8th in SEC)
- 64.8% FG
Time: 7:00 PM ET on January 28th
Location: Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, TN
TV Channel: ESPN
Online Stream: ESPN+ and the ESPN app.
Radio: Tom Leach and Jack Givens will have the call on the UK Sports Radio Network.
Replay: WatchESPN and SEC Network (check local listings).
Rosters: UK | UT
Stats to Know: UK | UT
KenPom: UK | UT
Team Sheet: UK | UT
Odds: FanDuel Sportsbook has Kentucky as an 8.5-point underdog with an over/under of 148.5 points. ESPN (22.4%), BartTorvik (22%), EvanMiya (21.1%), and KenPom (21%) all give the Wildcats less than 1⁄4 of a chance at victory. DRatings gives the Wildcats the best chance at 32.1%.
Predictions: KenPom and Haslametrics both project a 77-68 loss, and EvanMiya went with a 78-69 margin in favor of Tennessee. BartTorvik has Kentucky losing 76-68, and DRatings is at 81-76 for the Vols. Personally, I don’t love this matchup, given the slow pace of play and Tennessee’s elite defense, and for those reasons, I am taking Tennessee to win 81-74.
Send us your Kentucky vs. Tennessee score predictions in the comments section!
Go CATS!
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