The hype for this upcoming basketball season may be the most we’ve seen in the commonwealth since the Harrison twins announced they were coming back in 2014 after a championship loss, but for good reason.
Kentucky returns the National Player of the Year, Oscar Tshiebwe, along with the SEC assist leader, Sahvir Wheeler. Pair these with transfers Antonio Reeves, two five-star freshmen, and several other key returnees, this a talented and deep group.
With all that being said, here are three bold predictions for Kentucky basketball this season.
Advertisement
Kentucky will have its best defense since 2015
The 2015 Kentucky basketball team was an absolute juggernaut defensively and was widely considered one of the best college basketball defenses of all time. They were ranked 3rd in the country giving up just 54 ppg, but ranked first in opponent field goal percentage at 35 percent.
This defense notoriously held a UCLA team that made the Sweet Sixteen to just seven points in the first half of their regular season matchup.
If you need more evidence of the historical greatness of this team, look at this deep dive done by the New York Times.
With that said, this year’s team has the tools to be an elite defensive team given the speed and length in the backcourt, along with elite athleticism and length in the frontcourt as well.
Advertisement
Wallace and Frederick will be huge in setting and locking down opposing guards, and from the looks of the season opener, Reeves is a better defender than originally thought as well.
With help from Tshiebwe, Collins, and now Ugonna Onyenso down low, this team can wreak havoc defensively as they did in the exhibitions giving up 38 and 53 points respectively.
Daimion Collins will be a 1st round pick in the 2023 NBA draft
Collins is one of the most underrated players eligible for the 2023 NBA draft as he will be able to make a huge jump this season.
Standing 6-foot-9, Collins can jump out of the gym with a 46.5-inch vertical – which he has used to dunk on numerous people – and uses that to be a fantastic rim protector.
Advertisement
Combining this with a stronger frame and improvement in his ball-handling and shooting, Collins can take a big step this season and catch the eyes of the NBA.
If Collins improves can showcase an improved offensive game over the course of the season, he will be a very good option for the NBA already being freakishly athletic and having such a large upside.
Kentucky will not lose more than one game in conference play
John Calipari teams typically hit their stride in March, just in time for tournament play to begin.
However, this has not been the case the past couple of seasons as they have been playing maybe their worst basketball at the most important time of the year, whether it be due to injuries (2021-22) or just bad basketball (2020-21).
Advertisement
With the amount of experience on this team, this team should not take as long to hit their stride and it should be expected to see them flourish through the heart of conference play.
On paper, the SEC is still extremely tough, but Kentucky’s schedule may be a little weaker this year than last, with just three ranked games on the road. As we speak, Warren Nolan has the Wildcats predicted to go 15-3 in the SEC this season.
Last season, Kentucky lost some tough road games, so expect this year’s team – with a lot of returnees – to come out with a chip on their shoulder against teams like Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee
With that said, two of those teams, Arkansas and Tennessee are two of the three best teams in the SEC behind Kentucky, and the Wildcats play them on the road again this year. It will be a difficult task to win all three, so expect to drop at least one of them.
Advertisement
This will be an extremely difficult task for the Wildcats – and this is a BOLD prediction – but it is feasible that Kentucky could win the SEC and finish with just one loss in conference play.
In the end, these may or may not happen, but college basketball is here and Kentucky is poised for a great run. What are your bold predictions for this season?
Amari Williams has become the Kentucky Wildcats’ most important player and is deserving of All-SEC honors. Through SEC play, the big man has averaged a near double-double with 11.9 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 3.7 assists in just 24 minutes.
With Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson out of the lineup to injuries the last three games, Williams’ numbers have leaped to 17.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, with just a small bump in minutes to 27 per game.
That begs the question: Should Williams be playing more minutes?
Advertisement
Mark Pope says no.
“Efficiency drops when Amari’s off the floor. It also drops when Amari is on the floor a little bit too long,” Pope said on his Monday call-in show. “As he gets stretched and stretched, you start to see cracks in what he’s able to do energy-wise. He’s most efficient and most impactful when he can be somewhere between 20 and 28 minutes.”
Pope has mentioned multiple times a study that he and the rest of the staff conducted earlier this season to find each player’s most efficient stretches in the game. He has leaned on that to this point, and it doesn’t sound like he will be going away from it anytime soon.
Looking at his career minutes, Williams has only had one season where he averaged more than 23 minutes per game, his junior season at Drexel (27.4 mpg). Last season, as a fourth-year senior, he averaged nearly five minutes less per game (22.9 mpg) but still maintained the same player efficiency ratings while improving efficiency in other areas.
Advertisement
Not playing 30 minutes for the majority of his career, and Pope sticking to the analytics, it looks like Williams will continue to play around that 25 minutes per game. That means Brandon Garrison needs to take a step and help close that gap of productivity with March just on the horizon.
If you look at the metrics, Garrison has been part of many of Kentucky’s least-efficient lineups this season.
That needs to change in a big way for Kentucky to stay above water whenever Williams leaves the game. We’ve seen flashes from Garrison throughout the season — including his recent outburst vs. South Carolina — but he’s not come close to putting it together on a game-to-game basis like Williams has.
Of course, it wasn’t that long ago when Williams was enduring his own struggles. Some even wondered if Garrison should be taking more of his minutes early in SEC play, but thankfully, Williams has since turned the corner in a big way.
Despite Mark Pope resurfacing the concept of Kentucky’s “new season”, in reference to the impact that injuries have had on their roster, after the Alabama game, two of the team’s three absentees appear to be ramping up for a return just one game later.
Both Lamont Butler and Jaxson Robinson were listed as “Probable” on yesterday’s injury report for the ‘Cats road matchup with the Oklahoma Sooners. Whether or not they’ll actually return, or in what specific manner, is yet to be seen – but the prospect alone is sure to provide a collective sigh of relief to the big blue nation.
Unfortunately, Kerr Kriisa remains “OUT”, although his return may be more complicated considering the oft-discussed potential for a medical redshirt and comeback next season.
Advertisement
After missing three games with a shoulder injury he originally suffered against Texas A&M, Butler returned to play against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Feb. 8, leading Kentucky to a blowout win at home. Just one game later, he’d exacerbate the same injury issue against the Tennessee Volunteers, and has since been relegated to the sideline.
Robinson hasn’t seen the floor since playing through a hand injury against the Gamecocks, which he suffered in a non-contact incident in practice just days before.
The Final Stretch
While Kentucky has held their own in the toughest conference in the country in their wake, the Wildcats find themselves on the ropes following a blowout loss, with multiple road games and a date with the #1 team in the country still left on the schedule; in short, their probable pair of starting seniors couldn’t come back soon enough.
And the Sooners, at 17-10 overall, 4-10 in the SEC, may provide the perfect opportunity for a (potentially) lower stakes appearance for the both of them.
Advertisement
You can catch Kentucky vs. Oklahoma at 9:00 p.m. on ESPN tonight. A long-awaited homecoming, albeit away from home, may finally be in the cards for the ‘Cats.
Mark Pope has received three top-35 commitments in his first high school recruiting class, including two high 4-star commits in Jasper Johnson and Malachi Moreno.
However, his first top-10 prospect still eludes him after missing out on Caleb Wilson last month… at least for now.
Over the last few weeks, Pope and his staff have focused heavily on top-five prospect Nate Ament.
Advertisement
Ament, the second-ranked power forward in the 2025 class, cut his list down to five schools earlier this week: Duke, Louisville, Tennessee, Arkansas, and the Kentucky Wildcats.
The 6-foot-9 prospect has visited each of them except Arkansas over the last five months, with a decision expected in the next month or so. Where does each program stand?
According to Joe Tipton of On3, Louisville and Duke have “positioned themselves” the best in this recruitment, giving Pat Kesley and the Cardinals a slight lead. However, there is still time, and one thing that could shake things up the most is NIL, reported to be one of Ament’s biggest priorities.
Elsewhere at On3, Jamie Shaw did his own update, where he said this could be down to a Kentucky vs. Louisville battle.
Advertisement
“Speaking with sources at this point in time it does sound like there is a split room around Nate Ament with Duke, Louisville, and Kentucky. With the intel I am currently getting, I would not be surprised to see this ultimately come down to a Kentucky and Louisville battle,” Shaw wrote, later adding that a decision could come in the next few weeks.
Ament is fresh off a visit to Kentucky, where he saw Rupp Arena at its best as the Wildcats completed the season sweep of Tennessee. That being his most recent visit, along with Pope visiting for Ament’s Senior night, the hope is it made a lasting impact, but will it be enough?
Time will tell, but the Cats are a legitimate contender to land Ament.