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What Is the Probability of College Basketball Still Being Played?

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College Football has yet to start and while it is still the goal to play, 2020 has a weird way of changing plans. With that being said, schools and the NCAA are going to have start looking ahead with college basketball scheduled to start in just two months.

Good ol’ Jeff Goodman, of Watch Stadium, polled over 250 Division 1 athletic directors on their confidence of the upcoming college basketball season during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here are the six questions they asked.

What’s your level of confidence that we have any kind of college basketball regular season?

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When a collection of 258 athletic directors are over 96% confident that college basketball will happen, that is a good sign and good reason for optimism. Yet, there is no idea on what exactly the season will look like.

While multiple options are being explored, at the end of the day, no decision will be made until college football starts and there is a sample size to base a decision on.

What’s your level of confidence that we have an NCAA Tournament?

Money. Money. Money. We all need it, and now more than ever so does the NCAA.

After missing out on over $1 billion in revenue from last year’s NCAA tournament, the NCAA simply cannot afford to miss it for a second consecutive year. Whether there are 32 teams or 68, a tournament will be played. The primary concern is that if the tournament field is limited, how do you select teams.

Do you favor a ‘bubble’ for games?

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Considering how well the bubble has gone for the NBA, I am a bit surprised that the ADs are not in favor of such a plan. With that being said, I don’t believe it is possible for college baseketball and for two reasons.

First, it is extremely costly. The NBA’s bubble had an estimated cost of $150 million, and most conferences simply do not have that money.

Second, how can you make 18-22 years old students follow protocol when they are not being compensated? You can’t. Unlike professional sports, student-athletes are not being compensated for their risk.

What’s the biggest obstacle to having a college basketball season?

Once again, it comes down to money. It is much more expensive to test thousands of athletes than hundreds. The Power-Five and Big East schools could probably make it work financially, but there are 26 more Division 1 basketball conferences that couldn’t.

According to one AD, “If we can get it, and get the results back within minutes, or even hours and it’s only $5 or so, I think that will allow us to have a season. If not, I just don’t see it.”

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Which scheduling format do you prefer for the season?

As anticipated, the two most popular options are either starting on Thanksgiving or starting in January. With the school schedule this year, students at most schools will not return after Thanksgiving break until the Spring semester. Getting rid of the student population eliminates a lot of risk and .

The argument for starting in January, is the hope for a vaccine. Medical experts are predicting a vaccine to be approved in December, which could create a slow return to normalcy.

If I were a betting man, I believe the most likely scenario is that teams will play a limited regular-season schedule from Thanksgiving to Christmas, and they will start conference play in January. I believe this scenario minimizes the risk and liability for the schools and the NCAA.

There may be teams that do play 30 regular-season games, while others play 10 games, but it looks like college basketball will happen one way or another. The biggest reason, the NCAA needs money.

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky Basketball Players Say They Think About Winning National Championship “Every Second”

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Kentucky basketball players celebrate after their big over Duke.
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The expectations at Kentucky are the highest of any school in the country, and there is good reason why. The winningest college program ever. Eight national titles, under five different coaches. Seventeen Final Four appearances. You get it, a lot of success.

Fans want the players to have those same expectations. Despite not having the elite talent or preseason hype of great Kentucky teams past, this year’s team still has their eyes set on doing something “people will remember forever”, winning a national championship.

Asked on social media, if hanging banner #9 was all the players thought about “every second”, Ansley Almonor had a response.

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“We do.”

It takes a lot to win a national championship, including some luck, but this team is certainly going to be loved for their desire to live out their dream of playing at Kentucky and their unselfishness. Those two things can take them a long way this season .

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Men's Basketball

Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhart Seemingly Takes Shot at John Calipari, “Anybody Can Recruit”

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Mitch Barnhart sitting next to basketball coach John Calipari.
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John Calipari and Kentucky Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart had their differences over fifteen years, but success can hide a lot of things. Not that they hated each other, but they each had vastly different personalities. As that success weaned towards the end of Calipari’s tenure, those issues started to be noticed publically.

If you need evidence of that, despite their efforts to dispute it, there is the infamous press conference where Barnhart talked about “entitled” coaches, shortly after Calipari publicly called for a new practice facility. Then, there were multiple times when Calipari expressed that the administration was not on the same page and that he was facing “headwinds”.

That said, Calipari is now at Arkansas, but those differences and some disdain remain. During an interview on the Kentucky Football pregame show, Barnhart seemingly took a shot at Calipari when asked about Mark Pope’s recruiting philosophy and prioritizing fit.

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“I tell people all the time, ‘Anybody can recruit, not everybody can evaluate,’” Barnhart said. “You can recruit. You can be phenomenal at bringing people to your program. But if it does not fit you, it’s really not helpful.”

Of course, Calipari is one of the best, if not the best, recruiters in college basketball history. At times, he prioritized talent and athleticism over fit.

Quite the coincidence.

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Men's Basketball

ESPN’s Jay Williams Gives Message to Kentucky Fans, “You’re Not Going to Like It…”

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ESPN college basketball analyst Jay Williams gives a message to Kentucky fans after the Wildcats win over Duke. "You won't like it."
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Back in April, opposing fanbases like Duke, told Kentucky fans to “cope with Pope” following the hire of Mark Pope and the corresponding initial shock. On Tuesday, those same fanbases had to watch as Mark Pope outcoached Jon Scheyer and Duke in the final minutes of the Champion’s Classic to get his first marque win in just his third game at Kentucky.

Of course, shortly after the game, Duke fans began to rationalize the loss by highlighting their team’s youth. While true, it sounded like an echo chamber of what Kentucky fans said for years under John Calipari. One notable example was former Blue Devil Jay Williams.

At halftime, while Duke was leading 46-37, Williams called this year’s Duke team the most talented since the 2001 team that he was a part of at halftime. To his credit, he complimented Kentucky on the comeback victory, specifically on their offense and maturity, but then 36 hours later he posted a message to Kentucky fans on social media.

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“Let me put you on to something,” Williams started. “Whether you like it or not, networks are going to sell Cooper Flagg. He’s going to be the number one pick in the draft. You’re going to talk about whether he won the or whether he lost the game, regardless of the outcome.”

“You’re not going to like it. There should be more kudos to Mark Pope and Kentucky,” Williams continued. “Regardless of whether you won the game or not, they’re still going to sell Cooper Flagg because he is selling the sport. Sorry.”

William’s statement is true. That said, it comes off as ‘sour grapes’ about losing. Cooper Flagg is a great talent and will likely be the first pick in the NBA Draft, but most Kentucky fans would say they would much rather have the win than the marketing.

Futhermore, Kentucky and its ‘brand’ has raised the level of multiple players and coaches, and will continue to do so. A deeper impact than Cooper Flagg will have on Duke in just one season.

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