Although the Wildcats were able to take a big, collective breath after Ole Miss secured them a first round bye in the SEC Tournament with a win over Tennessee, their final fate is far from decided.
As they currently stand, Kentucky is slated in the eight seed in the Southeastern Conference; just ahead of Mississippi State, and right behind Texas A&M. While UK (again, thanks to Ole Miss) is unable to fall any further than their current position no matter how their last game goes, there also exists the possibility for the ‘Cats to rise as high as seed five.
What’s more? Everything comes down to three games: Ole Miss vs. Florida, Texas A&M vs. LSU, and, of course, Kentucky vs. Missouri. Where the Wildcats end up will all depend on the mixed-and-matched outcome of these three battles.
“Worst” Case Scenario
The simplest, and objectively worst possible outcome (although maintaining a bye is still pretty sweet) would only require one game to end a certain way – that is, Kentucky falling to Mizzou. In that case, no matter how the other two games turned out, the ‘Cats would be officially locked into the eight seed in which they currently sit when things kick off in Nashville.
But if Kentucky beats Missouri? Things get a lot more interesting.
Middle Ground
Given a big blue victory on Saturday, these two scenarios feel like the most plausible and encouraging options on the spread. In addition to a Wildcats win, if A&M beats LSU (expected) and Ole Miss beats Florida (unexpected), Kentucky would rise one spot to the seventh seed.
Now, swap the Ole Miss game and give Florida the win, and suddenly, the ‘Cats rise to the sixth spot. Interestingly enough, this latter outcome seems inherently more likely than the former, given Florida’s home court advantage and LSU’s consistent in-conference struggles. Either way, these two options are firmly in reach; all Kentucky has to do to guarantee a better seed than the one they have now is win.
Wishful Thinking
In the best possible scenario, as wild as it may seem Kentucky could climb as far as the fifth seed in the SEC standings. What’s even wilder? It’s more possible than the projections may lead you to believe.
If Kentucky and Florida win (again, Florida is favored), it’d all come down to LSU finding a way to upset A&M. That seems like a pipe dream, especially after what Kentucky just did to the Tigers in Rupp, but the game takes place in Baton Rouge, and it’ll be the last one there this season.
Who knows? Maybe the seniors in purple and gold will work to play spoiler and sabotage one of the better teams in their conference; after all, late-season college basketball is known for stories like these. As unlikely as it seems, you’d be remiss to count anything out after the first day of March.
Blue Gets In
As nice as it would be to jump three spots in the conference standings headed into the tournament, Nashville will be a blue-out either way, and Kentucky will have the benefit of both a first round bye and the most fans in the building on any given night out.
To boot, the team’s coach finally takes the event as seriously as the fans who travel for it do. Mark Pope said in Thursday’s press conference, “this SEC Tournament matters.” So no matter where the Wildcats end up, rest assured that Coach Pope will have the team right where they need to be headed into the weekend.
Kentucky will look to make their first splash in the tournament in years ahead of what is sure to be a historic March… for better or, perish the thought, much worse.
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